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How COVID-19 has changed the way we spend
Roger Montgomery
September 9, 2020
New data from the Commonwealth Bank and ANZ confirms what you likely already knew – COVID-19 has spurred a major change in our spending habits. However, some of the retailers that have thrived during the lockdowns may find the going tougher in the months ahead. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why it might be time to rebalance your portfolio
Roger Montgomery
August 14, 2020
Government stimulus measures and lockdowns have led to behavioural changes that have benefited some businesses while hampering others. But, as these stimulus measures taper, and restrictions ease, we’re likely to see a lot of spending habits return to ‘normal’. And that could have a big impact on many businesses, and their share prices. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Nanosonics has a long runway for growth
Dominic Rose
July 21, 2020
It’s a testing time for investors, with so many hitherto great businesses on their knees, and others looking well over-priced. But it’s still possible to identify structural winners with a long growth runway at reasonable prices. I think one of these could be Sydney-based medical device innovator, Nanosonics (ASX:NAN). Continue…
by Dominic Rose Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like.
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Crisis? What crisis? The market says it’s time to buy
Roger Montgomery
June 10, 2020
If you’re scratching your head over the market’s strong rebound since March, then join the club. Because there’s still a large cohort of economists and analysts who continue to see tough times ahead. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Beware wealth destroying capital raisings
Roger Montgomery
April 9, 2020
The stock market sell off validated an internal decision to abstain from the bubble in the months leading up to January 2020, but it wasn’t the only forecast that came to pass. We also discussed at length the likely prevalence of deeply-discounted capital raisings by companies needing to shore up balance sheets, to weather the COVID-19 lockdowns or simply be rescued from insolvency. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market Valuation.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Part 3 NSW data update
Gary Rollo
March 25, 2020
In our third update tracking COVID-19 testing data, NSW Health started reporting data on 25 January. The data released regularly reported case epidemiology, with a high trace rate, as well as good data on disease incidence by age cohort. NSW Health also appeared to have started early with a testing plan, and we note that when that testing regime scored a hit, testing volumes jumped, and kept ramping. Continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing Data – A Montgomery analysis
Gary Rollo
March 24, 2020
Here at Montgomery we have been tracking COVID-19 testing data, rather than just cases alone. Our logic is that testing drives cases, and that case growth would drive markets. So understanding testing might give us some early insight as to the likely preparedness of governments, and also to the dynamism of their response upon realising that a COVID-19 problem exists. Continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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How to prevent a recession we don’t have to have
Roger Montgomery
October 8, 2019
Back in November 1990, with the Australian economy deep in the doldrums, Treasurer Paul Keating uttered his now famous remark that this was “a recession that Australia had to have”. It was, remarkably, Australia’s last recession. Today, with our economy again looking into the abyss, I believe there is a simple measure the government could take to prevent the next one. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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The Anatomy of the Australian Small Cap Market
Gary Rollo
September 16, 2019
We like small companies with strong growth potential, especially if they are relatively undiscovered. In this article, we share the four segments we use to classify the small-cap universe. Continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Switzerland tops the world honesty table
Roger Montgomery
September 11, 2019
Warren Buffett has observed that honesty is the most important trait in the people you work with. The same might be said of firms you invest in. Which makes a recent study into cultural honesty interesting reading. It found that Switzerland is the most honest country in the world. Any guesses for which nations are least honest? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Five key themes for small-cap investors
Dominic Rose
September 11, 2019
The smaller end of the stock market delivered a mixed bag during the recent reporting season. But if you sift through the company reports, you’ll find five themes common to those that provided positive reports and/or outlook statements. These are the companies to put on your watchlist. Continue…
by Dominic Rose Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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What does life cycle investing mean?
Dominic Rose
September 2, 2019
The small-cap universe (outside the ASX100) is vast and varied, comprising around 2,000 companies operating across a broad array of industries and ranging in size from just a few million dollars in market value to multiple billions. How do we profit from companies as they grow? Continue…
by Dominic Rose Posted in Investing Education.
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Why it feels like our cost of living is rising
Andreas Lundberg
July 24, 2019
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded no movement in the March quarter, and rose just rose 1.3 per cent in the 12 months to the March quarter 2019. So why do so many Australians feel like life is getting dearer? Research by my former colleagues at Fidelity Investments might give the answer. Continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Consumer discretionary, Health Care, Insurance.
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Will Uber’s IPO lead to uber losses for investors?
Roger Montgomery
April 30, 2019
Uber’s upcoming IPO promises to be monumental. The big question for would-be buyers is: will this loss-making juggernaut be a good investment? Or, like its rival, Lyft, will its shares plummet after the float? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Four high quality companies
Roger Montgomery
January 15, 2019
When it comes to stocks the term ‘quality’ has many definitions. Some investors adopt a flexible approach to the definition of quality including being satisfied if quality management is running the business, a quality customer base exists, or they can identify quality assets on the balance sheet. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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Inflation, what is happening and what conclusions can we draw
Andreas Lundberg
November 1, 2018
Most people are familiar with the concept of inflation. As a quick recap, it is the process whereby prices tend to increase over time. A positive, but low, level of inflation is generally seen as positive for a number of reasons and central banks tend to manage their interest rates to try to hit an inflation target of generally around 2%. Continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Economics.
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Debt levels are indeed hurting
Andreas Lundberg
October 17, 2018
Data that forms an investment thesis is not always presented in the most coherent and easy to digest manner. It is indeed often the case that once data has been distilled into a form that is easy to draw conclusions from, it is often too late to act on as the trend has already become obvious. It is therefore often even more interesting to look at more circumstantial data that can give an early indication of the future direction of the more substantiated data. Continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Just how far will property prices fall?
Roger Montgomery
October 9, 2018
For the last two years, we were feeling rather lonely suggesting that the property boom would end abruptly. Today, property prices are falling, and we are no longer a lone voice. The question is: how much further will they fall? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Three global stocks and why we like them
Roger Montgomery
August 31, 2018
Recent press has been dominated with reporting season and that reality TV show known as Federal Parliament. For serious domestic investors, the press has probably not been an ideal source of information on investment opportunities elsewhere. So, to bring you up to speed with what we like elsewhere in the world Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Listen to this!
Roger Montgomery
June 25, 2018
Cochlear (ASX:COH) is one of Australia’s shining examples of technical adroitness and export attractiveness, an example to entrepreneurs of what can be achieved in Australia despite punitive wages and regulation. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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