Investing Education

Well into the penultimate quarter of the calendar year, institutional and private investors face the paradox that record infrastructure capital expenditure, particularly by AI hyperscalers, coexists with heightened geopolitical risk, sticky inflation, and an apparent structural shift to the relationship between equities and bonds.

And if institutions are changing their asset allocations to reflect these shifts, should private investors do the same? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss why traditional approaches to diversification may no longer offer investors the same protection they once did. We explored how persistent inflation has changed the relationship between shares and bonds, the growing concentration of global share markets in a handful of artificial intelligence (AI) linked companies, and why investors may need to diversify beyond traditional asset classes and markets by considering a broader range of investment strategies.

Listen to the full segment from 1:46:20 – ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why traditional approaches to diversification may no longer provide the same protection for investors. We explored persistent inflation, growing concentration in equity markets, the risks emerging around AI and hyperscaler spending, and why investors may need to look beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio towards alternative strategies, including private credit.

Watch the full episode on Ausbiz here: Why Roger thinks 60/40 diversification is dead continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about how Aura structures its private credit portfolios with multiple layers of protection aimed at preserving investors’ capital. Brett explains how this begins with selecting quality Australian businesses, rigorous credit assessment and tangible loan security, before adding further protection through lender equity that sits below Aura’s investment in the capital structure.

We also discuss the role of diversification across thousands of underlying loans, short loan durations of typically three to five months, and independent monthly risk assessments by Open Analytics. Together, these measures are designed to manage risk across the portfolio and provide multiple avenues of protection should a borrower experience financial difficulty.

Learn more about private credit. 

Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Video Insights.

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I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about the key differences between the Australian and U.S. private credit markets, and why the risks making headlines overseas may not necessarily translate directly to Australia. We discuss how differences in borrowers, lending structures, loan duration, asset security and legal frameworks can result in very different risk profiles.

We also explore Aura Private Credit’s approach, including its focus on established businesses, asset-backed lending, shorter-duration loans and portfolio diversification. Brett explains why understanding how a manager generates returns, manages liquidity and protects against potential losses can be more important than simply comparing headline yields.

Learn more about private credit. 

Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Video Insights.

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How much do the artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers’ businesses need to make from selling their AI tools in order to generate a decent return?

The debate surrounding the Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) for big tech’s massive AI infrastructure expansion revolves around a core question: How much end-user revenue is required to cover hardware depreciation, energy costs, and capital costs?

With hyperscaler capital expenditure (capex) on track to surpass US$600 billion- $800 billion annually, several prominent analysts, venture capital firms, and investment banks have published frameworks and scenarios to quantify the revenue needed for a reasonable return.

Here are a handful. You can decide whether the targets are likely to be met. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Since Labor’s 2026 federal budget changes were handed down, Australia’s property market – particularly suburbs across Sydney and Melbourne – has experienced sharp price corrections.

While property commentators spent early 2026 tracking a largely flat, sideways trend in capital city housing (hovering around the $1.81M to $1.83M median mark in Sydney), the post-budget landscape has delivered a rude shock.

For homeowners who, for years, sacrificed and scrimped to save a 10 to 20 per cent deposit and then purchased or refinanced during 2025 or early 2026, these price falls are no longer just abstract paper losses – they represent a devastating hit to their wealth and equity. Indeed, all they’ve saved has been wiped out in a matter of months. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the next phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle and the growing divergence between the companies building AI infrastructure and the hyperscalers funding it. We explored the risks posed by mounting AI capital expenditure (capex), weakening cash flows, the emergence of lower-cost Chinese AI models and what could happen if hyperscalers begin slowing investment. We also discussed why investors may benefit from looking beyond momentum-driven technology stocks towards high-quality, value-oriented businesses and other defensive assets.

Watch the full episode on Ausbiz here: Who really wins from the AI boom? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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For some time now, I have been writing about the fundamental structural shift occurring in global asset allocation, and specifically, the figurative death of the traditional 60/40 portfolio.

For many years, the typical approach to wealth management and balanced portfolios was to allocate 60 per cent to growth equities for potential capital gains and 40 per cent to public bonds to provide stability and income. 

When a recession struck and equity markets ran into headwinds, central banks cut interest rates, driving bond prices higher and shielding portfolio returns by offsetting stock market losses. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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In this week’s Video Insight, I explain why market volatility is a normal part of investing. While market pullbacks can feel unsettling, history shows they’ve often been temporary and have regularly occurred even in years that finished with strong returns. The key is staying disciplined and keeping your focus on the long term. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.

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