Investing Education
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Watching Hyperscaler debt
Roger Montgomery
July 17, 2026
Many years ago, I was asked by an AFR journalist whether I would revise my valuation of ABC Learning Centres, which was a tiny fraction of the traded price at the time, given the Singaporean Sovereign Wealth Fund (Temasek) had just invested in the company’s then-latest capital raise at a much higher market valuation.
Full of youthful confidence, I responded: “stupid people live in all different countries.”
A familiar pattern of fundraising and deployment was playing out at ABC Learning. It was one I had seen before and one which often resulted in pear-shaped returns for equity investors. That was certainly the case at ABC, which subsequently blew up spectacularly. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Consumer confidence – A gentle uptrend after a 53-year low
David Buckland
July 8, 2026
Consumer confidence appears to be slowly improving after hitting its lowest level in 53 years in April 2026. While the recent uptrend is encouraging, confidence remains fragile, with household debt, cost-of-living pressures and recent interest rate increases still weighing heavily on consumers. The question now is whether this rebound marks the beginning of a genuine recovery, or simply a modest lift from extremely depressed levels. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
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MEDIA
The Australian – Don’t write off gold’s polish – it could save you from an AI crash
Roger Montgomery
July 6, 2026
In my latest article for The Australian, I examine how investor attention has been almost completely hijacked by artificial intelligence (AI), leaving gold largely overlooked despite many of the conditions that have historically supported it. In theory, an era of mounting sovereign debt, structural inflation and geopolitical uncertainty should favour gold. If today’s AI enthusiasm eventually gives way to a market correction, investors may find themselves giving gold a second look…
Download the article here: Don’t write off gold’s polish – it could save you from an AI crash continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Value.able.
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MEDIA
Over the Money Fence – Budget Bombshell – What it Means for Your Money
Roger Montgomery
July 6, 2026
This week I am back with Over The Money Fence with Nicola Dale and Di Edwards.
This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. In this episode, we go through the biggest bombshells from this year’s budget and what the practical implications are for you and your money. I explain why the changes to the budget don’t actually benefit young Australians, and therefore positioning it in this way is simply untrue.
We talk about the hype around SpaceX being publicly listed, overtaking Amazon in market value, and I share my thoughts on whether the hype is real or if this company has been overvalued.
We also discuss private credit funds and why they can be a good investment option for people that want good returns without the volatility of the share market.
I loved having this conversation with Nicola and Di in the studio, helping to make them and our listeners feel more calm and confident about their financial decisions. We hope you enjoy this episode as much as we did.
Tune into past episodes of Over the Money Fence here.
For further information, please contact David Buckland, Chief Executive Officer or Rhodri Taylor, Account Manager on (02) 8046 5000 or investor@montinvest.com. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.
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Turning the page from Fiscal 2026 to Fiscal 2027
David Buckland
July 2, 2026
As we begin Fiscal 2027, it is worth taking a step back to reflect on the major themes that shaped global markets over the past year. I explore the key developments across equities, bonds, interest rates, commodities and currencies, and consider what they may mean for investors going forward.
From Magnificent Seven to Memory Seven
In the three calendar years 2023-2025, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), rose by an average 333 per cent, turning $1.00 into $4.33.
That strong upward trajectory came to an end in the six months to June 2026, with an average decline of 2 per cent. With Microsoft (-23 per cent),Meta (-15 per cent) and Tesla (-6 per cent) leading the fall.
The baton has been passed to the “Memory” sector with an average 419 per cent capital appreciation across seven companies in six months to June 2026 being reported, namely: SanDisk (+858 per cent), Kioxia (+759 per cent), Micron Technology (+304 per cent), SK Hynix (+305 per cent), Intel (+278 per cent), Marvell Technology (+251 per cent) and Samsung (+177 per cent). continue…by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Property.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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The AI bubble – Cracks beneath the surface
Roger Montgomery
June 30, 2026
In this video insight, I explain why I believe investors should look beyond the strong earnings and seemingly reasonable valuations driving enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI). I examine questions surrounding optimistic market assumptions, insider selling incentives, the economics of AI, rising debt levels, weakening cash flows, and whether reported earnings are overstating the sector’s underlying profitability. I also argue that low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios do not necessarily protect markets from significant corrections and suggest the real bubble may lie in AI earnings expectations rather than share prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Understanding the U.S. debt and liquidity crunch
Roger Montgomery
June 25, 2026
A layman’s guide to CrossBorder Capital’s latest financial outlook.
The core problem: A tsunami of government debt
Macroeconomic research house CrossBorder Capital’s Michael Howell recently summarised the dilemma confronting the U.S. Federal Reserve under newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh.
For most, the use of proprietary indicators and the esoteric interpretations is likely to be skimmed over, but sometimes a bit of additional attention pays dividends. Right now might be one of those junctures.
The U.S. government funds its budget shortfalls by issuing bonds – essentially IOUs to investors. To keep this system running smoothly, two things are required: balance-sheet capacity (the financial ability of large institutions to buy and hold these bonds) and market liquidity (the amount of readily available cash circulating to trade them). continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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MEDIA
ABC Newcastle Mornings – From Budget Tips to AI Risks
Roger Montgomery
June 24, 2026
I recently joined ABC Newcastle Mornings with Kylie Morris to discuss why households may benefit from reviewing their spending habits, including a simple exercise of separating expenses into “wants” and “needs” to identify potential savings and build a financial buffer.
We also explored how interest rates can act like gravity on asset prices, with higher rates reducing the present value of future cash flows – potentially weighing on shares and other investments.
Finally, we touched on the implications of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom for investors and superannuation (with specific reference to the recent SpaceX IPO), including concerns around supply chain fragility, resource consumption and the growing integration of AI into critical systems.Tune in from 37:30 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.
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Navigating the new tax landscape – The shift from capital growth to income yield and the case for private credit
Roger Montgomery
June 22, 2026
The Federal Labor Government’s 2026-27 Budget tax reform package represents the most sweeping overhaul of Australia’s investment tax landscape in nearly three decades. By winding back the traditional pillars of wealth creation – specifically the 50 per cent Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing on established residential property – the government has fundamentally altered the math of investing.
While today’s major policy concessions (including exemptions for testamentary trusts and a step back from sweeping ministerial discretionary powers) provide some targeted relief, the core framework remains intact.
The clear takeaway for investors is a systemic structural shift: the traditional focus on heavily leveraged capital growth has been severely compromised, making high-yielding income generation far more appealing. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Property.
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What could a crash look like?
Roger Montgomery
June 12, 2026
The defining irony of today’s stock market has got to be the yawning chasm between asset prices and their intrinsic values. As equity indices scale ever higher peaks, and as hyper-parabolic Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios are normalised, the underlying truths don’t seem to have changed. Eventually even this bubble must bust.
U.S.-based senior economist at the Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington, DC, and author of the ‘AI Bubble Monitor’, and U.S.-based antitrust and policy analyst Matt Stoller reckon this dynamic can be attributed to something Stoller calls the “Number Go Up Rule”– a systematic rewiring of institutional incentives to ensure corporate valuations ascend at all costs, and frequently favouring speculative mania over fundamentally productive or socially additive enterprises. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
