Technology & Telecommunications
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MEDIA
Firstlinks – Have AI’s four horsemen arrived?
Roger Montgomery
June 19, 2026
In my latest Firstlinks article, I explore whether artificial intelligence (AI) is following the familiar path of past technology bubbles. As businesses shift from AI experimentation to demanding measurable returns, the question becomes whether the trillions spent on AI infrastructure will ultimately generate enough revenue to justify today’s lofty valuations.
You can read the article via Firstlinks here: Have AI’s four horseman arrived? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Buffett vs. Musk
Roger Montgomery
June 18, 2026
“You cannot be afraid of new technologies. I think that this tenet passed Warren Buffett by. As he is the greatest investor of all time, I think it’s important to recognise that if he were not afraid of product cycles and obsolescence, he would have made much more these last few years than he did. Now, I know we shouldn’t criticise someone of his unbelievable prowess, but we must also recognise that it was wrong not to include technology stocks in the portfolio…[they] are creating too much wealth to ignore.”
With Musk now the world’s first recorded trillionaire after SpaceX’s float last Friday, you might be thinking the above quote has merit, especially as 60 per cent of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio is sitting in cash.
But the above quote, by Jim Cramer, was made in January 2000, just three months before the Dot.Com crash wiped 76.81 per cent from the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite index and investors saw an estimated US$5 trillion in paper wealth evaporate between 2000 and 2002. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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How to time your IPO
Roger Montgomery
June 18, 2026
SpaceX has some real businesses, but if I am completely lucid, I’d say there’s no business that would support its US$2 trillion valuation.
While the headlines are made by rockets and SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9, which has radically changed the economics of sending cargo into orbit, slashing launch costs by 85 per cent to roughly US$2,700 per kilogram, it is Starlink that generated US$11 billion of last year’s US$18 billion in revenue.
In fact, sending rockets into space doesn’t do a lot for the company’s finances. Indeed, SpaceX generates more revenue from renting out its NVIDIA chips to Anthropic than it does from rockets. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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AI births entirely new risks
Roger Montgomery
June 17, 2026
With stock markets recently retreating marginally from artificial intelligence (AI)-fuelled record highs, the question many thoughtful investors are asking is: Will the bull run resume, or is this the beginning of a broader correction?
Of course, we can’t be certain but what we can know is that as stock prices continue to soar, fears of an AI bubble will likewise increase.
Financial markets have performed spectacularly since late 2022, and equities have accelerated their gains this year just as structural stresses begin to appear and debates about sustainability begin to intensify. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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The dawn of ‘Tokenmaxxing’ and the 2026 AI hangover
Roger Montgomery
June 16, 2026
For the last three years, the corporate world’s relationship with artificial intelligence (AI) has been a lot like a toddler taking its first steps, or maybe a baby monkey trying to work out what to do with a camera.
Initially, there was The Era of Scaling and Praying (2022–2025), a typical phase after the invention of nearly every General Purpose Technology (GPT) since the railroad. During this period, tech giants invested hundreds of billions in infrastructure, creating huge engines even before knowing if their products would be useful or how they’d be operated. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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Have AI’s four horsemen arrived?
Roger Montgomery
June 3, 2026
The four horsemen of the Apocalypse are Conquest, War, Famine, and Death. Artificial intelligence (AI) has ‘Conquered’; in the Middle East, ‘War’ is underway and could take years to resolve, and changes afoot in enterprise-level AI spending would be akin to ‘Famine’ for AI hyperscalers that have spent trillions on scaling out the technology. All that awaits is the ‘Death’ of the AI bubble. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
The Australian – AI optimists face a reality check as surging bond yields signal market trouble
Roger Montgomery
June 3, 2026
Bullish investors believe AI is a new, infinite fourth factor of a nation’s production and wealth creation. In the past, we had labour, capital and land as production inputs, all of which were, of course, finite. Land provided the raw materials, labour the muscle and the mind to transform them, and capital was the tool.
Enter AI. The transformative aspect of this fourth ingredient is that, unlike the physical limitations of land or the finite hours of the human workforce, data is a resource that is functionally unlimited. And, importantly, it’s the only factor of production that actually grows more abundant the more we use it.
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This article was first published in The Australian on 27 May 2026.by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Global equities may be closer to a peak than many investors expect
Roger Montgomery
May 28, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss why global equity markets may be closer to a peak than many investors expect. We explored the historical link between oil-price spikes and weaker share markets, why even strong artificial intelligence (AI) –driven earnings growth may not protect valuations in a higher-rate environment, and how the excitement surrounding SpaceX is pushing many listed “proxy” space stocks into hyper-exponential territory untethered from fundamentals.
You can watch via Ausbiz here: Global equities may be closer to a peak than many investors expectby Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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When high tech meets low tech – the commodity crunch behind AI
Roger Montgomery
May 19, 2026
There’s a thesis many investors are now positioning for: The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout being led by the hyperscalers can’t proceed without copper, silver, and other critical metals, such as scandium. Their conclusion is that commodity prices will rocket higher if the the A.I. revolution continues.
Current forecasts suggest the combined capital expenditure of Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft will reach US$715 billion in 2026, up 98 per cent on 2025 and nearly three times their combined capital expenditure (capex) in 2024. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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AI vs. war
Roger Montgomery
May 12, 2026
As we approach the middle of the year, markets and the global economy appear to be locked in a “tug of war” between the geopolitical shock of the war in the Middle East and the rapid maturation and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI).
The war has removed an estimated 12 million barrels of oil per day from the global market – the largest supply hit in history. Indeed, according to Macquarie Bank, global crude oil declines so far in 2026, have significantly exceeded those during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 1990 Gulf War and the second Gulf War of 2003. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
There’s a battle playing out right now between Wall Street’s most bullish artificial intelligence (AI) optimists and the bond market traders quietly sounding the alarm. The outcome of that contest will matter enormously to investors with skin in the game.