Companies

I joined Kirsten Aiken on ABC The Business to discuss the challenges facing Australia’s retail sector. With higher interest rates slowing the economy and uncertainty around proposed tax changes weighing on consumer confidence, spending has softened across age groups. We explored the pressures facing traditional retailers, the accelerating shift to online shopping, the impact of global competitors, and why department stores such as Myer and David Jones continue to face long-term challenges as consumer habits evolve.

Watch here: Challenges grow for the retail sector, Glue the latest to close. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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SpaceX has some real businesses, but if I am completely lucid, I’d say there’s no business that would support its US$2 trillion valuation.

While the headlines are made by rockets and SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9, which has radically changed the economics of sending cargo into orbit, slashing launch costs by 85 per cent to roughly US$2,700 per kilogram, it is Starlink that generated US$11 billion of last year’s US$18 billion in revenue. 

In fact, sending rockets into space doesn’t do a lot for the company’s finances. Indeed, SpaceX generates more revenue from renting out its NVIDIA chips to Anthropic than it does from rockets. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Since January 1999, Macquarie Bank’s shares have risen almost 1,400 per cent, and that excludes the returns from reinvesting dividends. That’s just capital gains alone.  Assuming the Federal Labor Party is voted out, and their capital gains tax disincentives are unwound, there could be another Macquarie-Bank-like 1999 opportunity. The opportunity to buy a mini Macquarie on the ground floor might be Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG).

On 11 June 2026, the Australian Competition and Consumer Comission (ACCC) decided to approve Magellan Financial Group Ltd’s (MFG) proposed acquisition of the remaining shares in Barrenjoey Capital Partners Group Holdings Pty Limited (Barrenjoey) that it does not already own, in return for equity in MFG (the Acquisition).

Magellan Financial Group’s acquisition of the remaining shares in investment bank Barrenjoey was approved by shareholders in April 2026. Completion is expected in early July 2026.

Here are the key terms and structural details of the merger: continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Financial Services.

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I joined Kylie Morris on ABC Newcastle Mornings today to discuss the extraordinary rise of SpaceX following its record Initial Public Offering (IPO). We explored why the company’s valuation appears disconnected from traditional measures of value, how NASDAQ’s fast-tracked index inclusion could force ETFs and superannuation funds to buy shares, and why investors should be mindful of the risks that can emerge when market hype and scarcity drive prices higher.

Listen from 37:04: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market Valuation, Radio.

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When it comes to IPOs, you generally don’t want to be a member of any club that will have you. But, Australian retail investors are being given access.

Whether it’s the timing, the size, or something more sinister, the SpaceX IPO is poised to be one of the more polarising stockmarket milestones in recent times.

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 June 2026.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, In the Press.

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An oft-made and persistent mistake investors make is assuming what’s worked recently will continue to work indefinitely.

Referred to as ‘representativeness” it’s a psychological recency bias trap. Essentially, the comfort of the current winners prompts us to ‘bottom drawer’ them and simultaneously blinds us to the inevitability of economic cycles. Indeed, despite historical evidence of economic cycles and industry leadership change, we prefer the path of least resistance, which means hanging onto current winners, hoping they will always be so. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Manufacturing, Market Valuation.

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Worley Limited (ASX: WOR) has spent much of the past decade trying to redefine itself. Once known primarily as a traditional engineering contractor tied to cyclical project work, the company expanded aggressively into energy services through the acquisition of Jacobs’ ECR division in 2019, just before the world turned against fossil fuels. What followed was a difficult period marked by integration challenges, weak energy markets and a sharp de-rating as investors questioned both the strategy and the sustainability of earnings. Today, that same business is being viewed through a very different lens as the importance of energy and infrastructure are being highlighted by headlines and capital allocation. continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like.

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Corporate strategic pivots are common throughout history and particularly during market booms. Recall the mining companies that became internet companies during the internet bubble of 1999. Back then, merely adding “.com” to a company’s name saw its share price surge. 

In the 1920s, radio was the ‘Internet and artificial intelligence (AI)’ equivalent of its day. It was the first time an electronic buzzword could instantly inflate a company’s value, and between 1922 and 1929, sales of radio equipment in the U.S. jumped from US$60 million to over US$840 million. Investors were so hungry for radio exposure that any company adding the word to its name saw its stock soar. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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The upcoming listing of Firmus on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is being pitched as a generational opportunity to capitalise on the artificial intelligence boom, yet a closer examination of the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) Factory model reveals a series of architectural and financial cracks that prospective investors should scrutinise. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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While Israel pursues a high-stakes military campaign and President Trump plays ‘Deal or No Deal” with an Iranian regime that might not even have a leader in charge, investors are doing the only sensible thing left: Hiding.

With the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s ‘asymmetric’ threat to the Strait of Hormuz continuing and the U.S. increasing its on-the-ground footprint as America’s 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit arrives in the Middle East, the risk of a recession has also risen. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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