TV Appearances

I joined ABC Weekend Breakfast to discuss the record-breaking SpaceX Initial Public Offering (IPO), which briefly pushed Elon Musk’s wealth beyond US$1 trillion and valued the company at more than US$2 trillion. We explored what drove the strong debut, why much of SpaceX’s revenue now comes from its AI and data centre businesses rather than its space operations, and how NASDAQ’s decision to fast-track the stock into its index could force ETFs and index funds to buy shares. We also discussed the potential impact of insider selling in the months ahead and what the IPO could mean for everyday investors. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Popular, TV Appearances.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Popular, TV Appearances

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australia may be heading down the same path as Canada and New Zealand. Net overseas migration has nearly doubled from an average of 220,000 people per annum between 2007 and 2022 to around 423,000 per annum since May 2022, yet real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has been positive in only 4 of the past 15 quarters. We also discussed Australia’s weak productivity growth and whether population growth has been masking a slowing economy.

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by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss why global equity markets may be closer to a peak than many investors expect. We explored the historical link between oil-price spikes and weaker share markets, why even strong artificial intelligence (AI) –driven earnings growth may not protect valuations in a higher-rate environment, and how the excitement surrounding SpaceX is pushing many listed “proxy” space stocks into hyper-exponential territory untethered from fundamentals.

You can watch via Ausbiz here: Global equities may be closer to a peak than many investors expect

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss the 2026 Federal Budget and whether changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and negative gearing could ultimately create unintended consequences for younger Australians. While the reforms are aimed at improving housing affordability, I explained why reduced incentives for investors and forecasts for fewer homes to be built could place further pressure on supply and long-term wealth creation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances

I joined David Taylor on ABC’s The Business to discuss the recent strength in the Australian dollar and why markets are viewing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as one of the more hawkish central banks globally. I explained that investors are increasingly betting on further Australian rate rises, which has helped push the Australian dollar higher relative to other currencies. We also discussed how rising oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming federal budget could all influence inflation and the future direction of interest rates. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances

Today on Ausbiz, I pushed back on forecasts calling for a 20–40 per cent collapse in Australian housing prices. In my view, that outcome is highly unlikely given the way our system is structured.

Yes, prices can fall. But when you’re bringing in tens of thousands of people each month and vacancy rates are sitting around 1 per cent, supply simply isn’t keeping up with demand. That imbalance continues to support prices. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property, TV Appearances.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australian consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in more than five decades, despite relatively low unemployment (around 4.3 per cent compared to over 11 per cent in the 1990s) and interest rates (around 4.1 per cent compared to 17.5 per cent in the 1990s), with the key drivers being a sharp rise in household debt (now about 180 per cent of disposable income versus roughly 45 per cent four to five decades ago) and an intense cost-of-living squeeze across housing, childcare (around $180 per day), education (something that used to be free), and everyday expenses. I also highlighted how this pressure is contributing to a hollowing out of the middle class and increasing postcode-driven inequality, while noting that periods of extremely weak sentiment can sometimes create opportunities for long-term investors as fear drives short-term market dislocations.
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by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss why geopolitical shocks often coincide with resilient equity markets. History shows that while wars and major conflicts can trigger sharp initial sell-offs, markets have often recovered quickly and, in some cases, delivered strong returns during those periods. During World War I, for example, U.S. equities initially fell by around 30 per cent before going on to generate average annual gains of close to 7 per cent between 1915 and 1918, including a particularly strong rebound in 1915. World War II also aligned with solid Dow Jones returns, depending on the start and end dates used. And according to data from LPL Financial on 22 major non-financial shocks since Pearl Harbor, markets have typically fallen by around 5 per cent before recovering fully within about six weeks. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how markets could respond when the war ends, noting a short conflict may trigger a relief rally while a prolonged one could see markets fall further before recovering. I also highlighted that beyond near-term volatility, investors should be paying closer attention to the growing risks around the U.S. debt trajectory.

With interest rates now exceeding economic growth and global demand for U.S. Treasuries softening as countries shift toward gold, the cost of funding is rising and the risk of a debt spiral is increasing. While that presents a longer-term concern, I also see potential upside, particularly if an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven bubble unwinds and creates opportunities to buy high-quality businesses at compelling valuations. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I joined ABC News to discuss the market reaction to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Surging oil prices and concerns about supply disruptions have rattled global markets, prompting investors to reassess risks and reduce exposure to equities.

Watch here: ABC The Business. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, TV Appearances