Manufacturing
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AI’s next test
Roger Montgomery
September 16, 2026
July and August 2026 have delivered a useful reminder that even the strongest investment narratives eventually collide with economics.
According to The Wall Street Journal, US momentum stocks suffered one of their worst stretches in decades. Bank of America noted July 2026 was one of the worst months for momentum trading in nearly forty years.
As artificial intelligence (AI)-related equities suffered their violent reversal, some of the market’s most popular semiconductor and memory names fell extraordinarily quickly. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Why MP1 is a high-conviction holding
Gary Rollo
September 14, 2026
In this video, I discuss why Megaport (ASX: MP1) has become one of our highest-conviction holdings, including its position in AI infrastructure, differentiated data centre strategy and potential to benefit from growing demand for AI inference.
Disclaimer: The Montgomery Small Companies Fund owns shares in MP1. This video was prepared 14 September 2026 with the information we have today, and our view may change. It does not constitute formal advice or professional investment advice. If you wish to trade MP1, you should seek financial advice. continue…by Gary Rollo Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
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Codan: exceptional growth
Roger Montgomery
September 7, 2026
Codan (ASX:CDA) is an Australian technology company that designs, develops, manufactures and markets communications and metal-detection equipment. Its two main operating segments are Communications and Metal Detection. Within those businesses sit brands and operations including DTC, Zetron and Minelab, giving Codan exposure to tactical and defence communications, unmanned systems, public-safety communications and gold detection. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.
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More retailers paint a picture
Roger Montgomery
August 31, 2026
The popular Australian economic narrative includes the argument the consumer is weak, and we are heading towards a recession.
But Australia’s latest retail earnings results are painting a more nuanced picture. In other words, the household sector is under pressure, but the pressure is not falling evenly.
Spending on essentials remains resilient, value-conscious consumers are still buying when the offer is compelling, and well-run retailers are protecting profit through better gross margins, lower costs and tighter capital discipline.
At the same time, however, the more discretionary categories continue to show weak traffic and softer like-for-like sales. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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ARB’s FY26 – A look under the hood
Roger Montgomery
August 31, 2026
ARB Corporation (ASX: ARB) is Australia’s leading designer, manufacturer, and distributor of premium 4×4 vehicle accessories. Known worldwide for its flagship bull bars, suspension systems, roof racks, and camping gear, the company operates an extensive retail, wholesale, and export network serving off-road enthusiasts, commercial fleets, and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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Why Computershare caught our attention
Sean Sequeira
August 26, 2026
In this video, I discuss Computershare (ASX: CPU), a global provider of share registry and shareholder administration services, and why it caught our attention during the year. I explain how the company’s decision to sell lower-returning businesses and refocus on its core operations has improved the quality of the business, while a significant fall in the share price presented a more attractive valuation. Together, these factors led us to establish a position in Computershare. continue…
by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
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A value investor’s framework for AI
Roger Montgomery
August 25, 2026
If you haven’t noticed already, allow me to point out that investment discussions about artificial intelligence (AI) frequently devolve into almost insulting debates between AI evangelists, who cite massive total addressable markets (TAM) and explosive user growth, and sceptics, pointing to trillions of dollars in capital expenditure (capex), a buildout based on speculation, exorbitant compute costs, and an unclear path to profitability.
Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern professor and widely respected value investor, believes this debate has largely gone off the rails, noting in a recent post, “The debate about AI, in my view, has gone off the track with advocates and sceptics often talking past each other”. Optimists cherry-pick usage metrics, while pessimists focus on heavy spending, with both sides ignoring the rigorous business analysis that needs to take place in the middle. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Reporting season says the Australian consumer is cautious, not capitulating
Roger Montgomery
August 21, 2026
There’s a consistent view of the consumer emerging from Australia’s Financial year 2026 (FY26) retail reporting season.
Households haven’t stopped spending, but they’ve become more selective, more value-conscious and increasingly willing to postpone discretionary purchases or wait for promotions and sales.
The pressure is most evident in big-ticket categories like furniture, appliances, and homewares. Nick Scali (ASX:NCK) noted a significant decline in store traffic late in the year; JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) mentioned that customers are focusing their purchases around major sales; and Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) said that while browsing continues, customers are delaying their buying decisions. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Another look at the AI bubble
Roger Montgomery
August 18, 2026
While the debate continues over whether the artificial intelligence (AI) thematic is a bubble, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq continue to climb a wall of worry. You’d think this would cause at least some of the AI sceptics to throw in the towel, but if anything, it has reinforced their resolve and reinforced their scepticism.
One of the most vocal is English author and tech columnist Ed Zitron.
In a recent interview with Adam Taggart, Zitron dismantled the core promises of the AI boom, suggesting current Large Language Models (LLMs) are an unsustainable, highly subsidised circular economy that fails to solve basic business problems. He also highlights immediate balance sheet pressures, and extreme market concentration. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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How much!?!?
Roger Montgomery
August 17, 2026
How much do the artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers’ businesses need to make from selling their AI tools in order to generate a decent return?
The debate surrounding the Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) for big tech’s massive AI infrastructure expansion revolves around a core question: How much end-user revenue is required to cover hardware depreciation, energy costs, and capital costs?
With hyperscaler capital expenditure (capex) on track to surpass US$600 billion- $800 billion annually, several prominent analysts, venture capital firms, and investment banks have published frameworks and scenarios to quantify the revenue needed for a reasonable return.
Here are a handful. You can decide whether the targets are likely to be met. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
