Insightful Insights
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Amazon and Google shares plunge: The AI bill is coming due
Roger Montgomery
October 31, 2026
Until now, Wall Street has been treating generative artificial intelligence (AI) as a license to justify virtually any valuation, no matter how lofty.
Aggressive spending today to dominate the architecture of tomorrow’s economy has led equity and bond investors to fall over themselves to avoid missing the next transformation of humanity.
However, over the last 24 hours, the market’s patience seems to have cracked. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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Recent bubbles
Roger Montgomery
October 30, 2026
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom, or bubble, has captured so much investor attention that many have forgotten how many bubbles we’ve seen in the last decade.
And whether it was sudden liquidity shifts, low interest rates, technological enthusiasm, or structural market changes, these factors consistently combined to feed speculation and inflate asset markets.
When cheap capital or social euphoria flows faster than underlying fundamental earnings, valuations detach from reality. Most importantly, regardless of what drives the enthusiasm, whether it’s decentralised digital assets or meme stocks, each cycle saw valuations peak, and markets eventually corrected. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
The Australian – Bond market revival rewards investors but threatens stock values
Roger Montgomery
October 30, 2026
In my latest article for The Australian, I explore why government bonds are becoming increasingly attractive after more than a decade of low yields and market volatility. I examine the forces driving U.S. Treasury yields, including economic growth, interest rate expectations and demand for safe assets, and explain why a slowing economy could create opportunities for bond investors through both income and potential capital gains, while presenting challenges for equity markets.
Download the article here: Bonds were down and out – now they could beat stocks continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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The AI funding window is closing: slowing revenue, IPO fails, and a bankrupt OpenAI
Roger Montgomery
October 21, 2026
For two years, Silicon Valley and global equity markets agreed that artificial intelligence (AI) is an uncapped frontier where aggressive capital deployment and unchecked spending would automatically yield exponential returns. Or, perhaps, equity markets believed the spin coming out of Silicon Valley.
Whichever scenario is true, reported operating results over the past week have confirmed the shift in sentiment toward AI.
Slowing revenue, public market pullbacks, and fluid enterprise strategies suggest the market’s appetite for unconstrained AI spending is finally hitting a ceiling. Investors have well and truly moved past the honeymoon phase and are demanding proof of a sustainable economic model. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Give us back our confidence!
David Buckland
October 21, 2026
I just returned from an inspiring presentation on artificial intelligence (AI) by Alan Finkel AO, Australia’s Chief Scientist from 2016 to 2020, only to read that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2,200 staff had rejected a 9.5 per cent pay rise, over three years. The proposal included a 3.5 per cent increase in the first year, followed by a 3.0 per cent increase in each of the next two years.
Together with the Head Office renovation, now expected to cost $1.2 billion, this seems like a “joke”, particularly when we consider that total RBA staff numbers have increased by around 800, or 57 per cent, over the past five years. And this doesn’t include the RBA’s fiscal 2025/26 accounting loss of A$8.5 billion on the unrealized value of its government bond and foreign exchange portfolio. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
READ HERE -
“Australian residential property prices never fall”
David Buckland
October 15, 2026
I can’t tell you how many times I have heard the expression, “Australian residential Property prices never fall”. Admittedly these “experts” have enjoyed an enormous 40-odd year bull market. However, they don’t believe that asset prices can be cyclical, and they likely missed the 1993 London headline which read “One million homes in negative equity”.
As Australia’s unemployment rate hits 4.7 per cent, a five year high, and inflation reaches 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to August 2026, it appears a period of stagflation – slow or negative real economic growth per capita, higher unemployment and persistent inflation – will likely be with us for the foreseeable future. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Popular, Property.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Too much AI, too little return?
Roger Montgomery
October 15, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the growing risks surrounding the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and whether the billions being invested in infrastructure can deliver sustainable returns. We explored the industry’s reliance on debt-funded hyperscalers and venture capital-backed startups, and how a slowdown in funding could trigger a domino effect across the sector. We also discussed the disappointing Firmus IPO, CoreWeave’s recent share price decline, and the risk of excess data centre capacity if demand fails to meet expectations.
Watch here: Too much Ai, too little return. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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Zitron goes feral on AI
Roger Montgomery
October 15, 2026
If only to arm you with arguments you might not be apprised of, it’s worth repeating artificial intelligence (AI) critic and author, Ed Zitron’s most recent warnings about the AI bubble, starting with a reference to the potential insolvency of OpenAI and Anthropic: continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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MEDIA
The Australian – High interest rates and bond yields threaten global sharemarket rally
Roger Montgomery
October 12, 2026
In my article for The Australian, I explore why global bond yields continue to rise while equity markets remain largely unfazed. From persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions to growing government debt and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure spending, several forces are keeping interest rates elevated. I also examine whether expectations of AI-driven earnings growth can continue to support share prices, or whether higher borrowing costs will eventually weigh on equity valuations.
Download the article here: High interest rates and bond yields threaten global sharemarket rally continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Sovereign debt yields continue to climb – is a debt crisis on the cards?
David Buckland
October 12, 2026
In the past six years, French Government ten-year bond yield has jumped from negative 0.3 per cent to 4.9 per cent, the highest level in 24 years. Investors are starting to differentiate between each euro-denominated country with German and Dutch ten-year bonds yielding 3.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, Greek and Italian ten-year bonds yield 4.55 per cent and 4.65 per cent, respectively, indicating potential contagion as confidence appears to be in short supply. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
