Insightful Insights
-
MEDIA
The Australian – AI optimists face a reality check as surging bond yields signal market trouble
Roger Montgomery
June 3, 2026
Bullish investors believe AI is a new, infinite fourth factor of a nation’s production and wealth creation. In the past, we had labour, capital and land as production inputs, all of which were, of course, finite. Land provided the raw materials, labour the muscle and the mind to transform them, and capital was the tool.
Enter AI. The transformative aspect of this fourth ingredient is that, unlike the physical limitations of land or the finite hours of the human workforce, data is a resource that is functionally unlimited. And, importantly, it’s the only factor of production that actually grows more abundant the more we use it.
continue…
This article was first published in The Australian on 27 May 2026.by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
-
Same data, different conclusions – Inflation commentary 28 May 2026
Roger Montgomery
May 28, 2026
Inflation seems to be the topic du joúr. Perhaps surprisingly, however, is the variety of opinions, even on the same day.
Economists, strategists and analysts don’t seem to be able to agree on anything regarding inflation (except for the current number), even on the same day (in this case, today the 28th of May 2026) – even when presented with the same data.Here is just a small selection of comments about inflation that arrived in my inbox this morning, and as you will see, facts are open to interpretation. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
-
Consumer confidence hits a record low (while the NASDAQ Index hits a record high)
David Buckland
May 27, 2026
Australia and the United States (U.S.) currently have one thing in common.
Consumer confidence is in a world of pain.
In the U.S., the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded since the University of Michigan began tracking the data in 1952.
The Index, see Graph 1. and Table 1. below, hit 44.8 in May 2026, as Americans fear inflation, rising fuel costs, economic instability associated with the Iran War and the worry artificial intelligence (AI) will take white collar jobs.
When I look at the U.S. inflation rate – which was 3.8 per cent for the year to April 2026 – and the U.S. Federal Funds Rate at 3.75 per cent, I again point out a significant anomaly. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
-
The hidden cracks beneath the rally – we can only know that which can be measured
Roger Montgomery
May 25, 2026
On December 11, 1974, influential Austrian-born British economist and philosopher, Friedrich von Hayek, best known as a champion of free-market capitalism and classical liberalism, and a fierce critic of socialism and state intervention, delivered “The Pretence of Knowledge” as his Nobel Memorial Lecture. It was later published as an essay and remains one of his most famous critiques of central planning and hubris in economics. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
-
More bears join the chorus
Roger Montgomery
May 22, 2026
As the list of bears publicly declaring the end of the stock market’s bull run grows, so does the wave of charts, indicators and correlations used to explain or justify the growing chorus of crash predictions.
The bear camp’s advocates now include, most vocally, Scott Galloway, Ray Dalio and Michael Burry, and perhaps more reservedly, Torsten Sløck. Others in the bear camp include Jim Rogers and Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
-
WHITEPAPER
WHY I'M DOUBLING DOWN ON THE CALL TO INVEST IN PRIVATE CREDIT AND DIGITAL INCOME
Discover how private credit and market-neutral digital income strategies may enhance portfolio diversification in an environment where the traditional 60/40 approach is proving less effective.
READ HERE -
They can’t all be wrong at the same time. Can they?
Roger Montgomery
May 21, 2026
Four consecutive years of high double-digit returns in the stock market is a rare occurrence. Indeed, it’s happened once in 100 years. If this year ended on a high, it would be the second time investors enjoyed four consecutive high-returning years.
A growing number of reputable investors, however, are suggesting that the outcome is unlikely and they’re citing the relentless rise of sovereign bond yields.
According to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, government bond yields across the Group of Seven (G7) nations have surged to their highest levels since 2004. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
-
Yardeni vs. Burry – The Bull vs. the Bear
Roger Montgomery
May 15, 2026
Red Corner (Bull) Ed Yardeni
I have written about and referenced both gents for years, and if you’d like to hear from them first-hand, you can subscribe to their musings on Substack. In the red corner is Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research and in the blue (bearish corner) is Michael Burry. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
-
How the budget turns a reno to ruin
Rhodri Taylor
May 14, 2026
The 2026-27 Australian Federal Budget, handed down on May 12, 2026, fundamentally alters the economics of property flipping.
For decades, a tax system that rewarded capital growth over rental yield made the “buy, renovate, and flip” property model a popular way for middle-class investors with a bit of energy and an idea to get ahead.
However, Labor’s latest proposed tax reforms have gutted the high margins that once made short-term established property speculation rewarding. continue…
by Rhodri Taylor Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property.
-
MEDIA
Ausbiz – Budget risks and market warnings
Roger Montgomery
May 14, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss the 2026 Federal Budget and whether changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and negative gearing could ultimately create unintended consequences for younger Australians. While the reforms are aimed at improving housing affordability, I explained why reduced incentives for investors and forecasts for fewer homes to be built could place further pressure on supply and long-term wealth creation. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
-
IMF vs. Australian Treasury: “the Severe scenario”
David Buckland
May 14, 2026
Higher global inflation and lower growth will reflect the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U.S./Iran war.
The near-term forecasts for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) use a Reference Scenario, Adverse Scenario and a Severe Scenario, as illustrated in Graph 1 below. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
There’s a battle playing out right now between Wall Street’s most bullish artificial intelligence (AI) optimists and the bond market traders quietly sounding the alarm. The outcome of that contest will matter enormously to investors with skin in the game.