Insightful Insights
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Navigating the new tax landscape – The shift from capital growth to income yield and the case for private credit
Roger Montgomery
June 22, 2026
The Federal Labor Government’s 2026-27 Budget tax reform package represents the most sweeping overhaul of Australia’s investment tax landscape in nearly three decades. By winding back the traditional pillars of wealth creation – specifically the 50 per cent Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing on established residential property – the government has fundamentally altered the math of investing.
While today’s major policy concessions (including exemptions for testamentary trusts and a step back from sweeping ministerial discretionary powers) provide some targeted relief, the core framework remains intact.
The clear takeaway for investors is a systemic structural shift: the traditional focus on heavily leveraged capital growth has been severely compromised, making high-yielding income generation far more appealing. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Property.
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MEDIA
Firstlinks – Have AI’s four horsemen arrived?
Roger Montgomery
June 19, 2026
In my latest Firstlinks article, I explore whether artificial intelligence (AI) is following the familiar path of past technology bubbles. As businesses shift from AI experimentation to demanding measurable returns, the question becomes whether the trillions spent on AI infrastructure will ultimately generate enough revenue to justify today’s lofty valuations.
You can read the article via Firstlinks here: Have AI’s four horseman arrived? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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ABC The Business – Challenges grow for the retail sector, Glue the latest to close
Roger Montgomery
June 18, 2026
I joined Kirsten Aiken on ABC The Business to discuss the challenges facing Australia’s retail sector. With higher interest rates slowing the economy and uncertainty around proposed tax changes weighing on consumer confidence, spending has softened across age groups. We explored the pressures facing traditional retailers, the accelerating shift to online shopping, the impact of global competitors, and why department stores such as Myer and David Jones continue to face long-term challenges as consumer habits evolve.
Watch here: Challenges grow for the retail sector, Glue the latest to close. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
Fear + Greed Podcast Q&A – What a Middle East peace deal means for markets, oil and investors
Roger Montgomery
June 16, 2026
A peace deal between Iran and the United States has transformed the outlook for global markets – at least for now.
I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed, to discuss which sectors stand to benefit most from falling oil prices, why airlines, retailers and property stocks could outperform, and why history suggests investors should be cautious despite the optimism.I also touch on the extraordinary valuation of SpaceX, why Elon Musk may be the greatest marketer the world has ever seen, and the surprising role Google may have played ahead of the company’s IPO.
Listen here:
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel.
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What could a crash look like?
Roger Montgomery
June 12, 2026
The defining irony of today’s stock market has got to be the yawning chasm between asset prices and their intrinsic values. As equity indices scale ever higher peaks, and as hyper-parabolic Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios are normalised, the underlying truths don’t seem to have changed. Eventually even this bubble must bust.
U.S.-based senior economist at the Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington, DC, and author of the ‘AI Bubble Monitor’, and U.S.-based antitrust and policy analyst Matt Stoller reckon this dynamic can be attributed to something Stoller calls the “Number Go Up Rule”– a systematic rewiring of institutional incentives to ensure corporate valuations ascend at all costs, and frequently favouring speculative mania over fundamentally productive or socially additive enterprises. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Population to populism: Will Australia follow the Canada and NZ path?
David Buckland
June 11, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australia may be heading down the same path as Canada and New Zealand. Net overseas migration has nearly doubled from an average of 220,000 people per annum between 2007 and 2022 to around 423,000 per annum since May 2022, yet real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has been positive in only 4 of the past 15 quarters. We also discussed Australia’s weak productivity growth and whether population growth has been masking a slowing economy.
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
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MEDIA
The Australian – AI optimists face a reality check as surging bond yields signal market trouble
Roger Montgomery
June 3, 2026
Bullish investors believe AI is a new, infinite fourth factor of a nation’s production and wealth creation. In the past, we had labour, capital and land as production inputs, all of which were, of course, finite. Land provided the raw materials, labour the muscle and the mind to transform them, and capital was the tool.
Enter AI. The transformative aspect of this fourth ingredient is that, unlike the physical limitations of land or the finite hours of the human workforce, data is a resource that is functionally unlimited. And, importantly, it’s the only factor of production that actually grows more abundant the more we use it.
continue…
This article was first published in The Australian on 27 May 2026.by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Same data, different conclusions – Inflation commentary 28 May 2026
Roger Montgomery
May 28, 2026
Inflation seems to be the topic du joúr. Perhaps surprisingly, however, is the variety of opinions, even on the same day.
Economists, strategists and analysts don’t seem to be able to agree on anything regarding inflation (except for the current number), even on the same day (in this case, today the 28th of May 2026) – even when presented with the same data.Here is just a small selection of comments about inflation that arrived in my inbox this morning, and as you will see, facts are open to interpretation. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Consumer confidence hits a record low (while the NASDAQ Index hits a record high)
David Buckland
May 27, 2026
Australia and the United States (U.S.) currently have one thing in common.
Consumer confidence is in a world of pain.
In the U.S., the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded since the University of Michigan began tracking the data in 1952.
The Index, see Graph 1. and Table 1. below, hit 44.8 in May 2026, as Americans fear inflation, rising fuel costs, economic instability associated with the Iran War and the worry artificial intelligence (AI) will take white collar jobs.
When I look at the U.S. inflation rate – which was 3.8 per cent for the year to April 2026 – and the U.S. Federal Funds Rate at 3.75 per cent, I again point out a significant anomaly. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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The hidden cracks beneath the rally – we can only know that which can be measured
Roger Montgomery
May 25, 2026
On December 11, 1974, influential Austrian-born British economist and philosopher, Friedrich von Hayek, best known as a champion of free-market capitalism and classical liberalism, and a fierce critic of socialism and state intervention, delivered “The Pretence of Knowledge” as his Nobel Memorial Lecture. It was later published as an essay and remains one of his most famous critiques of central planning and hubris in economics. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
There’s a battle playing out right now between Wall Street’s most bullish artificial intelligence (AI) optimists and the bond market traders quietly sounding the alarm. The outcome of that contest will matter enormously to investors with skin in the game.