Insightful Insights
-
MEDIA
Ausbiz – The playbook for a higher-inflation world
Roger Montgomery
October 1, 2026
I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss persistent inflation in the U.S., the impact of rising wages and services costs, and why the Federal Reserve may have limited room to ease rates. We also explored the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout, growing demand for capital and the pressure higher borrowing costs could place on hyperscalers, before discussing how private credit may fit within a higher-inflation environment. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
-
The cost of a housing downturn – who pays the price?
David Buckland
October 1, 2026
Australia’s housing market is under growing pressure, and further declines in property values could affect more than just homeowners. The consequences could extend across household finances, consumer confidence and state government budgets.
If the value of Australia’s 11 million dwellings decline by an average 15.5 per cent from its A$12.8 trillion peak, then up to A$2.0 trillion in paper wealth could be wiped out over the 2026-2027 period. Based on averages, a dwelling worth $1.16 million at its peak could fall below $1.0 million. This fall in value would equate to a decline of $70,000 per Australian in housing wealth. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Property.
-
AI profits just became more urgent
Roger Montgomery
September 30, 2026
When you hear people talk about U.S. inflation, a popular narrative is the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is essentially powerless. The argument goes that today’s sticky price pressures are almost entirely driven by outside supply shocks – things like new tariffs, volatile energy costs, and bottlenecks in tech hardware caused by the massive artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
-
Many major economies under stress from relatively high inflation AND unemployment
David Buckland
September 29, 2026
After cutting their cash rates in the latter part of 2024 and 2025, the Central Banks of Australia, the U.S., Europe and New Zealand have recently reversed tack. This is coming at a tricky time for many economies with inflationary expectations and cost of living issues putting additional pressure on consumers, and this is often accompanied by relatively high unemployment in the UK (5.0 per cent), Europe (6.4 per cent), Canada (6.4 per cent) and New Zealand (5.6 per cent). continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Popular.
-
Hyperscaler cash flow mirage
Roger Montgomery
September 24, 2026
It may initially seem a stretch to claim the financial quality of your retirement beyond 2026 might depend on the outcome of some heroic assumptions about Hyperscaler artificial intelligence (AI) cash flows.
But is it?
Equity markets, and especially investors in U.S. stocks – of which there is a record number investing a record amount – are ignoring a litany of concerns. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
-
WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
READ HERE -
Is AI the Boogeyman?
Roger Montgomery
September 23, 2026
Recently, in an AXIOS email with the subject line, “Not too late,” the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote, “The White House, Congress and the country’s leading AI companies have allowed AI to grow faster, stronger, more powerful and wildly lucrative (and dangerous), with no serious effort to control it or spread the benefits beyond the super-wealthy, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in a “Behind the Curtain” column. It’s not too late to change this. But if they all dither, duck, or dance around it, the chances of AI worst-case scenarios will explode, likely early next year, according to almost everyone we talk to privately who truly understands AI.” continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
-
The U.S. stock market approaches October with lots to worry about
Roger Montgomery
September 22, 2026
When the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields pierced five per cent on September 14, they reached their highest level since October 2023, and signalled a potential conflict between sovereign debt realities and a relentlessly optimistic equity market. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
-
MEDIA
Ausbiz – The $40 trillion debt problem facing U.S. markets
Roger Montgomery
September 17, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss rising U.S. bond yields and what higher interest rates could mean for markets. We also explored growing U.S. government debt, competition for capital from the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom, and the warning signs to watch across mortgages, highly leveraged companies and credit markets.
Watch here: The $40 trillion debt problem facing U.S. markets
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
-
Put it on the tab
Roger Montgomery
September 17, 2026
In recent months, the chart shown in Figure 1., has been doing the rounds, inspiring fear among some observers that a stock market crash is imminent. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
-
How the Australian Eagle team is using AI
Sean Sequeira
September 16, 2026
I explain how we’re using AI in two key areas: to support investment research by synthesising information, generating ideas and identifying changes or inflection points in company reporting, and internally to improve how we allocate capital across the portfolio. Our internal AI operates offline, allowing us to use our proprietary research while keeping that information secure.
by Sean Sequeira Posted in Insightful Insights, Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.
