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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the Big Mac Index and how it uses the concept of purchasing power parity to assess whether currencies appear overvalued or undervalued. We also explored why the index has limitations as a measure of fair value, what it suggests about the Australian dollar, and the important differences between market pullbacks, corrections and crashes, highlighting why short-term volatility is a normal part of investing.

Listen in from 1:47:03: ABC Statewide Drive

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Radio.

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I joined Kylie Morris on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the recent increase in market volatility and the shift underway beneath the surface of equity markets. We explored how years of momentum-driven investing and record inflows into index funds have fuelled the outperformance of a handful of large technology stocks, and why that trend may now be reversing. We also discussed the next phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle, where investors are becoming more selective about which businesses are likely to benefit, as well as the sharp correction in South Korea’s technology sector as a reminder of the risks that can emerge when markets become concentrated.

Tune in from 33:30 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how the rise of passive investing is changing the sharemarket, with index funds increasingly pushing money into the biggest companies regardless of valuation. Using SpaceX as an example, we explored how speculative companies can attract enormous valuations during periods of market optimism, and why that may not last forever. We also looked at what this means for Australians, many of whom may have exposure to these trends through their superannuation.

Tune in from 1:45:22 on ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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I joined Kylie Morris on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the impact of Labor’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) on the housing market. We looked at why first home buyers may be finding it harder to enter the market, the effect of tighter lending rules, and how changes to self-managed superannuation borrowing could affect housing supply.

We also touched on ASIC’s record civil penalties over the past financial year and why it’s important that companies engaging in misconduct are held accountable.

Tune in from 35:50 on ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Radio.

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I recently joined ABC Newcastle Mornings with Kylie Morris to discuss why households may benefit from reviewing their spending habits, including a simple exercise of separating expenses into “wants” and “needs” to identify potential savings and build a financial buffer.

We also explored how interest rates can act like gravity on asset prices, with higher rates reducing the present value of future cash flows – potentially weighing on shares and other investments.

Finally, we touched on the implications of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom for investors and superannuation (with specific reference to the recent SpaceX IPO), including concerns around supply chain fragility, resource consumption and the growing integration of AI into critical systems.

Tune in from 37:30 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

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• POSTED IN Consumer discretionary, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio

I joined Kylie Morris on ABC Newcastle Mornings today to discuss the extraordinary rise of SpaceX following its record Initial Public Offering (IPO). We explored why the company’s valuation appears disconnected from traditional measures of value, how NASDAQ’s fast-tracked index inclusion could force ETFs and superannuation funds to buy shares, and why investors should be mindful of the risks that can emerge when market hype and scarcity drive prices higher.

Listen from 37:04: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market Valuation, Radio.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss why oil prices may be giving investors a false sense of calm. While markets expect Middle East tensions to ease, the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the need to eventually replenish those supplies could create the conditions for a sharp spike in oil prices, with implications for inflation, interest rates and share markets.

Tune in from 1:45:16: ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the Federal Government’s changes to capital gains tax (CGT) and negative gearing, and whether the reforms will improve housing affordability for younger Australians. We explored the potential impact on property investors, first-home buyers and housing supply, as well as the broader economic consequences of reducing incentives to invest. We also discussed the upcoming SpaceX IPO, concerns around its rapid inclusion in major indices, and why calm oil prices may be masking growing risks in global energy markets.

Listen here: ABC Nightlife continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Property, Radio.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss what history tells us about oil-price spikes and share markets, and why falling oil prices are not always positive for equities. We also explored the growing excitement around SpaceX, including the bullish case for the company, concerns about its proposed IPO structure, and why investors should be cautious of getting caught up in market hype. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss what rising oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East could mean for markets. We looked at historical data showing that past oil-price peaks have often been followed by weaker share markets, and also explored the growing excitement around SpaceX, including the opportunities and risks for investors considering investing in the company.

Tune in from 1:46:33 here: ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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