Property

If you were thinking of buying a, say, a $2 million property to renovate and flip in 18 months, Labor’s 2026 budget just made that a perilous strategy, while also making investing in an AA rated Private Credit Fund way more attractive.

The 2026 Federal Budget has significantly shifted the goalposts for you. If you haven’t signed a contract yet, you are stepping into a very different tax environment than the one that existed last week.

In the current 2026 climate, a private credit fund returning 7.22 per cent as at 31 March 2026*, is almost certainly the superior choice for a $2 million allocation over an 18-month horizon.

*Returns are net of fees and assumes reinvestment of distributions. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. Inception date 4 October 2022. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Property.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Property

The 2026-27 Australian Federal Budget, handed down on May 12, 2026, fundamentally alters the economics of property flipping.

For decades, a tax system that rewarded capital growth over rental yield made the “buy, renovate, and flip” property model a popular way for middle-class investors with a bit of energy and an idea to get ahead.

However, Labor’s latest proposed tax reforms have gutted the high margins that once made short-term established property speculation rewarding. continue…

by Rhodri Taylor Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property

In my latest video insight, I explain why I believe the budget could fundamentally reshape property investing in Australia. Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax may discourage investment in established properties, slow housing and credit growth, and create unintended consequences for banks, property-related businesses and younger Australians trying to build wealth.

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property, Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property, Video Insights

I was fascinated by this ABC article, which welcomed the federal Labor Government’s expected changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax in the 2026 Budget. While the article focuses heavily on tax policy as the lever for change, it largely omits the supply-side pressures of record migration and high construction costs. It also ignores the massive burden Labor’s massive and unbridled spending has on the budget, ensuring the young are locked in to paying off the debt for decades to come. Finally, it ignores the fact that when the older generation have taken out a mortgage to fund a rental property investment, they are reducing their burden on social welfare, specifically the government funded pension. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Property

In this video insight I challenge the idea that Labor’s federal budget is delivering genuine intergenerational fairness, arguing instead that it overlooks the fundamental drivers of Australia’s housing pressures. While Labor focuses on taxing investors and reshaping incentives, the reality is that strong migration and limited housing supply continue to fuel demand, keeping vacancy rates tight and affordability under strain. I also question whether shifting the burden onto “mum and dad” investors addresses the real issue, suggesting that broader structural reform and a more honest assessment of policy trade-offs are needed. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Property, Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Property, Video Insights

Today on Ausbiz, I pushed back on forecasts calling for a 20–40 per cent collapse in Australian housing prices. In my view, that outcome is highly unlikely given the way our system is structured.

Yes, prices can fall. But when you’re bringing in tens of thousands of people each month and vacancy rates are sitting around 1 per cent, supply simply isn’t keeping up with demand. That imbalance continues to support prices. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Property, TV Appearances

Are housing prices on the way down, and what does war in the Middle East mean for markets, investors and their superannuation?

I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to unpack these issues, explaining why forecasts of sharp housing declines are unlikely given the strong incentives supporting prices, from migration to government policy and bank balance sheets. We also discussed how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could delay rate cuts, the potential for recent market gains to fade, and how the “SaaSpocalypse” (Software as a Service apocalypse) and artificial intelligence (AI) are impacting companies and investors.

Tune in to hear the segment: ABC Nightlife. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications

There’s been a conga line of prognosticators who have forecast falling house prices. All of them have faded into history as house prices have grown since the 1970s, first at the rate of inflation, then at the rate of wage growth, then at the rate of Artemis II launch.

Recently, Money.com.au contracted Primara Research to produce a forecast of Aussie house prices for 2030 under a variety of interest rate, supply, and unemployment scenarios. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property

In the past 14 months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its cash rate on seven separate occasions by an aggregate 3.0 per cent from 5.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent, as seen in Table 1.

Table 1. Reserve bank of New Zealand rate cuts continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary, Property

As investors, we have a particular interest in Australia’s condition, its desirability as a destination for living and its quality as a destination for investing. For some time now, I have feared better destinations exist elsewhere. Whether deliberate or unwitting, the government is not prioritising the betterment of the nation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Property.

• save this article
• POSTED IN In the Press, Property