Property
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More pain to come as the RBA lifts rates again
Roger Montgomery
August 4, 2022
Back in May, Montgomery CEO, David Buckland, said he saw New Zealand as Australia’s ‘canary in the coal mine’. As the Kiwis had raised rates earlier and more frequently than our Reserve Bank, their experience would be a good pointer to what we could expect. If he’s right, we now have the answer: big declines in consumer and business confidence, and falling property prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Property
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Why mortgage stress could be worse than the RBA thinks
Roger Montgomery
July 28, 2022
The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Michele Bullock, last week offered a cheerful, if not upbeat, interpretation of the circumstances faced by Australian mortgage holders, who are facing the brunt of the RBA’s interest rate rises. For Bullock, and presumably for the RBA, there’s no need to stress. I hope she’s right, but I fear things could get very difficult for a lot of borrowers. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property
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A bad policy proposal
Andreas Lundberg
May 18, 2022
It is closing in on the election date and we are seeing some stupid proposals coming as politicians are worried over getting re-elected/elected. The LNP’s proposal for first home buyers to access their superannuation balances for a deposit for their first home purchase is one I am highlighting. I consider this a thoroughly bad proposal from an overall society point of view for several reasons. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Property
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Australia’s residential property market to soften
David Buckland
May 10, 2022
It never ceases to amaze me that when a sector that has enjoyed a roaring bull market starts to turn the ‘experts’ try to out-do one another in giving pessimistic forecasts. And that is now happening with Australia’s residential property market, where the general consensus is that prices could soon drop by 15 to 25 per cent due to rising interest rates. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Property
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Why Goodman Group remains sanguine about looming headwinds
Joseph Kim
May 10, 2022
The share price of Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) has plunged around 27 per cent since the start of the year as some investors began to price in headwinds for the commercial and industrial property business. Nick Vrondas, Group CFO, addressed these issues at the recent Macquarie Group investment conference, and explained why he is confident that growth remains on track. continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Companies, Property, Stocks We Like
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Rates go up; house go down
Roger Montgomery
May 6, 2022
As we predicted last November, Australian house prices have now topped out and begun their march lower. A quick visit to any of Australia’s holiday hotspots will reveal a testament to the sudden end of the most recent boom – a plethora of properties advertised for sale at the vaguest possible price known; ‘Contact Agent’. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property
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More Chinese property woes spell bad news for iron ore miners
Andreas Lundberg
March 29, 2022
Two recent news items on the problems besetting China’s Evergrande Group tell me that things are going from bad to worse for China’s second largest property developer. And Evergrande’s woes are not an isolated case – signs of distress are starting to emerge at other Chinese developers too. And that’s bad news for our iron ore miners, as property construction accounts for about 42 per cent of Chinese steel demand. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Global markets, Property
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Why sky-high property prices are here to stay – for now
Roger Montgomery
March 4, 2022
When it comes to explaining our booming property market, one thing stands out: access to cheap loans. So I’m sure many property owners would have breathed a sigh of relief this week when the Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed the historically low overnight cash rate of 0.1 per cent would remain unchanged. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property
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A closer look at REA Group’s half year results
Roger Montgomery
February 7, 2022
At $135.00 on 27 January, REA Group’s (ASX:REA) share price had fallen almost a quarter from its high of $176.81 in November 2021. The move demonstrates even high-quality company shares can succumb to the vagaries of sentiment, especially when investors abandon long-term investing plans in favour of short-term fears about where share prices might land tomorrow or next week. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Property, Stocks We Like
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The 3 words that tell me this property boom is over for now
Roger Montgomery
November 24, 2021
The key driver for the short and medium-term direction of the Australian property market can be boiled down to just three words: access to credit. And, right now, the conditions for credit access are getting tighter. To my mind, it all points to a property market that is about to lose its froth. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property
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