Economics

Australia is experiencing a population and demographic transformation, with nearly 50 per cent of our population able to claim at least one parent born overseas. George Tharenou of UBS analysed the implications in his recent report entitled “How will a ‘Big Australia’ impact the economy and the ‘intergenerational contract’?” The report dives deep into the effects of Australia’s population boom on the economy, asset prices, productivity, housing, and superannuation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics.

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Working in derivatives trading back in the early nineties, one of the aphorisms that became a gospel-given truth was, ‘volatility is heightened at turning points’. It has been my experience that volatility clusters around turning points, but perhaps I only remember that because I want to. If big moves also occur in the middle of bull and bear markets, my aphorism becomes the product of selective memory. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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In this week’s video insight, I discuss Australia’s sluggish economic growth, marked by six consecutive quarters of gross domestic product (GDP) decline per capita – the worst result since the early 1980s, outside of the COVID-19 pandemic. I explore how rising interest rates and increased government spending have fueled inflation and exacerbated the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. I also share my personal investment approach, focusing on the Aura Private Credit Income Fund and the Aura Core Income Fund, which have provided strong returns despite these economic challenges.  continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics.

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The mood at this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the annual gathering of the world’s top central bankers, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, was noticeably more relaxed. The message resonating through the picturesque landscape? The worst appears to be behind us.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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Reggae legend Bob Marley might have been channelling the Bible when he wrote the lyrics for Zion Train and famously observed, “Don’t gain the world and lose your soul; wisdom is better than silver or gold”. 

Warren Buffett once famously noted, “We’ve never succeeded in making a good deal with a bad person.”  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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The Sahm Recession Indicator has signalled nine of the previous U.S. recessions over the past 65 years, and the move to 0.53 per cent in July 2024 is now pointing to the tenth. The indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the U.S. national unemployment rate (U-3) rises by 0.50 per cent or more relative to the minimum of the three-month average from the preceding 12 months.    continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics.

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As a Gen Xer myself, it seems the press has left us behind, sandwiched as it were, between the Baby Boomers and Millennials. So, when an article purporting to describe me occasionally appears, I sit up and take notice. What do the media and financial experts think of my generation? Did they get it right? Or are they necessarily broad generalisations that don’t apply to me or my friends?  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick.

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 In presidential campaign speeches in 1959 and 1960, John F. Kennedy noted, “In the Chinese language, the word “crisis” is composed of two characters, one representing danger and the other, opportunity.” It’s not quite correct but that didn’t stop the handy anecdote becoming a popular trope adopted by business consultants and in motivational speeches and calls to action.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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Over the past 17 years, Chinese economic growth has decelerated from an approximate average annual 10 per cent to sub 5 per cent, whilst the Shanghai Composite Index has halved to under 2,900 points. Pressure on the Chinese residential property market and China’s ten-year bond yield at 2.1 per cent has been well highlighted, whilst the slowdown in sales from many big brand businesses is pointing to a deflationary environment, yet to be fully reflected in the iron-ore price.   continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets.

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The easing cycle for the Western world has thankfully begun with each of the Canadian Central Bank, the European Central Bank and the Swedish Central Bank cutting their official cash rate by 0.25 per cent to 4.75 per cent, 4.25 per cent and 3.75 per cent, respectively. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics.

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