Economics

Australian consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in more than 50 years despite relatively low interest rates and unemployment compared to the early 1990s, with the key difference being a sharp rise in household debt, as debt-to-income ratios have more than quadrupled from around 45 per cent to 180 per cent. Combined with ongoing cost-of-living pressures, this has left households far more sensitive to economic shocks, contributing to a hollowing out of the middle class and increasing financial strain on younger generations even as a significant intergenerational wealth transfer unfolds. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Video Insights.

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Pivots galore

Few global macroeconomists have carried as much recent optimism as Ed Yardeni, who, as president of Yardeni Research, has spent the better part of this decade championing a ‘Roaring 2020s’ thesis – a nod to the roaring 1920s, on the back of productivity gains, technological innovation, and a resilient American consumer, Yardeni’s thesis has included a very bullish end to 2026.

In an interview with Thoughtful Money, however, Yardeni pivoted. While not abandoning his longer-term bullish base case entirely, the war in the Middle East, seems to have influenced a bit of a capitulation. He has also increased his probability of a recession from 20 per cent to 35 per cent, on the back of geopolitical volatility and the return of ‘bond market vigilantes’ – the latter being a term Yardeni famously coined in the 1980s to describe investors who protest inflationary fiscal policy by selling bonds. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Prior to the conflict, investors were debating AI’s immediate and long-term impact. While 2025 was about the rise of the AI “picks and shovels” – enablers like Nvidia – 2026 witnessed the emergence of agentic AI, and the narrative quickly became about the fall of the middlemen – the traditional software companies that built epochal and capital-light business on a per-seat revenue model.

This article was first published in The Australian on 25 March 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I was fascinated by this morning’s Australian Financial Review (AFR) article, which pointed out markets appear to be disconnected from reality in the Middle East.

Comparing the current and more disruptive war in the Middle East to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which was far less disruptive to energy markets, the author notes:

“Back in 2022, Brent crude peaked at $US139 a barrel, compared with $US102 now. Back then, European gas peaked at €339 a megawatt hour, compared with €51 now. Back then, the price of urea, an oil by-product vital in the production of fertilisers, peaked at $US910 a tonne, compared with $US660 now. Back then, the S&P 500 fell 25 per cent peak-to-trough. Today, the index is down just 5.5 per cent from its January record high.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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I joined ABC News to discuss the market reaction to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Surging oil prices and concerns about supply disruptions have rattled global markets, prompting investors to reassess risks and reduce exposure to equities.

Watch here: ABC The Business. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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On December 18, in a blog entitled Time Magazine Cover Curse, I wrote, “…Gracing the cover of the [TIME] mag isn’t a coronation but a harbinger of doom, because the moment a public figure has permeated the public discourse sufficiently to land the cover, the trajectory inevitably reverses.”

Politicians have suffered landslide defeats after being featured on the cover, as have business tycoons whose stocks plummet, and celebrities whose reputations are assassinated under sudden, intense scrutiny. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Investing Education, Market Valuation.

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On statewide drive with Jess Maguire, I explained that recent market volatility reflects investors reassessing some big assumptions, particularly after Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair.

Many investors had been expecting lower U.S. interest rates, so the nomination caught markets off guard and forced a reversal of those bets. That led to sharp falls in gold and silver, higher bond yields, and weaker share prices. While precious metals may recover over time, I see the bigger influence on sharemarkets as the gradual unwinding of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. For Australia, stronger U.S. growth can support some companies, but persistent inflation risks and policy uncertainty mean investors are becoming more cautious and re-evaluating risk.

Listen from 1:44:55 here: ABC Statewide Drive. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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Yet, the stock market’s buoyancy belies the head-spinning conga line of events over the first month of 2026 that would, at any other time in history, have caused the market to plunge or coincided with it.

Take gold’s 17 per cent ascent so far this month, which follows a 66 per cent rise in 2025. Such moves are unusual. Since gold began trading freely in the 1970s, the average annual return for gold has been roughly 6-8 per cent. January’s return doubles that annual number.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear and Greed to look back at some of the key themes that shaped markets in 2025, including the hype surrounding in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and the growing case for small caps. We also talked about the rise in gold and silver as the U.S. dollar weakened, and what those moves could signal for investors.

We then looked ahead to 2026, discussing why markets may become more volatile and how diversification into assets uncorrelated to traditional markets could help support portfolios. We covered Digital Asset Funds Management’s Digital Income Fund and how its digital arbitrage strategy aims to benefit from market volatility, and explored how Aura’s Private Credit Income Fund can provide income and returns with no correlation to sharemarkets.

You can listen to the episode on Fear and Greed here: The bull and bear cases for equities in 2026.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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Interest rates act like gravity on the value of all assets. The lower the rate, the weaker the gravitational force, allowing asset prices to float higher. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has cut 175 basis points since the current rate-cutting cycle began on September 18, 2024. Since that time, the U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P500, has risen 22.4 per cent.

As important as interest rates are for asset values, they are perhaps even more important to sentiment, when investors believe they are set based on economic data rather than the whims of politicians – whose own agendas may seek to destroy the benefits of monetary policy when driven by an independent central bank. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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