Economics

If you’ve been following our blogs and Montgomery Minutes about noted short seller Michael Burry, you’ll know he’s been making headlines this year for shorting the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Late last week, he reported he has again increased those short bets.

If you haven’t been following our posts on the subject, Michael Burry is the former chief of the now-closed hedge fund manager Scion Asset Management and was immortalised by Michael Lewis in his 2010 book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, which reported on Burry’s large asymmetric bets against the 2008 U.S. housing bubble. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Consumer confidence appears to be slowly improving after hitting its lowest level in 53 years in April 2026. While the recent uptrend is encouraging, confidence remains fragile, with household debt, cost-of-living pressures and recent interest rate increases still weighing heavily on consumers. The question now is whether this rebound marks the beginning of a genuine recovery, or simply a modest lift from extremely depressed levels. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I examine how investor attention has been almost completely hijacked by artificial intelligence (AI), leaving gold largely overlooked despite many of the conditions that have historically supported it. In theory, an era of mounting sovereign debt, structural inflation and geopolitical uncertainty should favour gold. If today’s AI enthusiasm eventually gives way to a market correction, investors may find themselves giving gold a second look… 

Download the article here: Don’t write off gold’s polish – it could save you from an AI crash continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Value.able.

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This week I am back with Over The Money Fence with Nicola Dale and Di Edwards.

This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. In this episode, we go through the biggest bombshells from this year’s budget and what the practical implications are for you and your money. I explain why the changes to the budget don’t actually benefit young Australians, and therefore positioning it in this way is simply untrue. 

We talk about the hype around SpaceX being publicly listed, overtaking Amazon in market value, and I share my thoughts on whether the hype is real or if this company has been overvalued. 

We also discuss private credit funds and why they can be a good investment option for people that want good returns without the volatility of the share market.

I loved having this conversation with Nicola and Di in the studio, helping to make them and our listeners feel more calm and confident about their financial decisions. We hope you enjoy this episode as much as we did. 

Tune into past episodes of Over the Money Fence here. 

For further information, please contact David Buckland, Chief Executive Officer or Rhodri Taylor, Account Manager on (02) 8046 5000 or investor@montinvest.com. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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As we begin Fiscal 2027, it is worth taking a step back to reflect on the major themes that shaped global markets over the past year. I explore the key developments across equities, bonds, interest rates, commodities and currencies, and consider what they may mean for investors going forward.

From Magnificent Seven to Memory Seven

In the three calendar years 2023-2025, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), rose by an average 333 per cent, turning $1.00 into $4.33.

That strong upward trajectory came to an end in the six months to June 2026, with an average decline of 2 per cent. With Microsoft (-23 per cent),Meta (-15 per cent) and Tesla (-6 per cent) leading the fall.

The baton has been passed to the “Memory” sector with an average 419 per cent capital appreciation across seven companies in six months to June 2026 being reported, namely: SanDisk (+858 per cent), Kioxia (+759 per cent), Micron Technology (+304 per cent), SK Hynix (+305 per cent), Intel (+278 per cent), Marvell Technology (+251 per cent) and Samsung (+177 per cent). continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Property.

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I recently read the musings on Substack of a British citizen who is watching “the country I was born in dissolve into a managed, bureaucratic, state-dependent puddle of its former self.” They say, “Britain is not failing. Britain has failed,” and they’ve assembled a comprehensive solution. I wonder to what extent their economic reforms should be applied to Australia. Do you think any of it makes sense for us? Are we failing as a nation? Do these ideas represent solutions? Some ideas would have labels attached to them, such as ‘regressive’ and ‘protectionist’, but forget the labels. You have to look at the whole, not the individual measures, which, of course, is how we got to the mess we are in. Perhaps we need a telescope not a microscope. Would it be better than what we have? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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In this video insight, I explain why I believe investors should look beyond the strong earnings and seemingly reasonable valuations driving enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI). I examine questions surrounding optimistic market assumptions, insider selling incentives, the economics of AI, rising debt levels, weakening cash flows, and whether reported earnings are overstating the sector’s underlying profitability. I also argue that low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios do not necessarily protect markets from significant corrections and suggest the real bubble may lie in AI earnings expectations rather than share prices. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the recent sell-off in technology shares and why rising interest rates, weakening cash flows and growing questions around artificial intelligence (AI) economics may be shifting investor sentiment. We explored how reported earnings across the major AI companies may be overstating the underlying picture, why relatively modest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios do not necessarily rule out a market correction, and why diversification remains important in an increasingly uncertain environment.

Listen from 1:44:13: ABC Statewide Drive  

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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A layman’s guide to CrossBorder Capital’s latest financial outlook.

The core problem: A tsunami of government debt

Macroeconomic research house CrossBorder Capital’s Michael Howell recently summarised the dilemma confronting the U.S. Federal Reserve under newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh.

For most, the use of proprietary indicators and the esoteric interpretations is likely to be skimmed over, but sometimes a bit of additional attention pays dividends. Right now might be one of those junctures.

The U.S. government funds its budget shortfalls by issuing bonds – essentially IOUs to investors. To keep this system running smoothly, two things are required: balance-sheet capacity (the financial ability of large institutions to buy and hold these bonds) and market liquidity (the amount of readily available cash circulating to trade them). continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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I recently joined ABC Newcastle Mornings with Kylie Morris to discuss why households may benefit from reviewing their spending habits, including a simple exercise of separating expenses into “wants” and “needs” to identify potential savings and build a financial buffer.

We also explored how interest rates can act like gravity on asset prices, with higher rates reducing the present value of future cash flows – potentially weighing on shares and other investments.

Finally, we touched on the implications of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom for investors and superannuation (with specific reference to the recent SpaceX IPO), including concerns around supply chain fragility, resource consumption and the growing integration of AI into critical systems.

Tune in from 37:30 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

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