Economics

In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.

The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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With the prospect of a full-scale war in the Middle East increasing, with bond yields heating up, and with famed short seller Michael Burry increasing his short position against the U.S. SOXX Semiconductor Index, could this month be the month that investors will look back on with regret, wishing they’d diversified?

It’s a midterm election year in the U.S.

Let’s begin with the U.S. Midterm elections in mind. Did you know the midterm year is historically the worst year of the four-year presidential cycle for stocks? Some analysts suggest it’s because of something called the “midterm discount.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to break down what’s actually on the table ahead of the federal budget. With a large deficit, ongoing inflation and rising government spending, I said this is an important budget and a time when rumours can spread quickly. I pushed back on claims of an inheritance tax and a cash ban, noting there’s little political appetite for either, while highlighting that changes to superannuation for higher balances are already in place. We also discussed how an EV road user charge could be introduced over time as fuel excise declines. On housing, I said policy tweaks like negative gearing changes are unlikely to have much impact, with credit availability and migration remaining the key drivers. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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In this video insight I challenge the idea that Labor’s federal budget is delivering genuine intergenerational fairness, arguing instead that it overlooks the fundamental drivers of Australia’s housing pressures. While Labor focuses on taxing investors and reshaping incentives, the reality is that strong migration and limited housing supply continue to fuel demand, keeping vacancy rates tight and affordability under strain. I also question whether shifting the burden onto “mum and dad” investors addresses the real issue, suggesting that broader structural reform and a more honest assessment of policy trade-offs are needed. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Property, Video Insights.

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Today on Ausbiz, I pushed back on forecasts calling for a 20–40 per cent collapse in Australian housing prices. In my view, that outcome is highly unlikely given the way our system is structured.

Yes, prices can fall. But when you’re bringing in tens of thousands of people each month and vacancy rates are sitting around 1 per cent, supply simply isn’t keeping up with demand. That imbalance continues to support prices. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property, TV Appearances.

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Travellers to Switzerland overwhelmingly describe the alpine nation as breathtaking, safe, and efficient – a dream destination with dreamlike Alpine landscapes. Those with a keen eye will also notice that one of the most beautiful places they have ever visited is

expensive, but it’s clean, the public transport is punctual, and the villages are charming. I have often heard friends return with the phrase “Everything just works”. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets.

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Should persistent inflation drive a portfolio shift?

Helped by a 12 per cent rally since the war-inspired low recorded on March 30, the U.S. S&P 500 index is now at new all-time highs and more than two per cent above its previous all-time high recorded in February. 

It’s reasonable to conclude the global and U.S. economies are healthy and booming, as is the AI rollout. But those booms, along with the shocks stemming from war in the Middle East, may be sowing the seeds of a pivot and an inflation threat that could have serious implications for portfolio construction. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Australian consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in more than 50 years despite relatively low interest rates and unemployment compared to the early 1990s, with the key difference being a sharp rise in household debt, as debt-to-income ratios have more than quadrupled from around 45 per cent to 180 per cent. Combined with ongoing cost-of-living pressures, this has left households far more sensitive to economic shocks, contributing to a hollowing out of the middle class and increasing financial strain on younger generations even as a significant intergenerational wealth transfer unfolds. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Video Insights.

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Pivots galore

Few global macroeconomists have carried as much recent optimism as Ed Yardeni, who, as president of Yardeni Research, has spent the better part of this decade championing a ‘Roaring 2020s’ thesis – a nod to the roaring 1920s, on the back of productivity gains, technological innovation, and a resilient American consumer, Yardeni’s thesis has included a very bullish end to 2026.

In an interview with Thoughtful Money, however, Yardeni pivoted. While not abandoning his longer-term bullish base case entirely, the war in the Middle East, seems to have influenced a bit of a capitulation. He has also increased his probability of a recession from 20 per cent to 35 per cent, on the back of geopolitical volatility and the return of ‘bond market vigilantes’ – the latter being a term Yardeni famously coined in the 1980s to describe investors who protest inflationary fiscal policy by selling bonds. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Prior to the conflict, investors were debating AI’s immediate and long-term impact. While 2025 was about the rise of the AI “picks and shovels” – enablers like Nvidia – 2026 witnessed the emergence of agentic AI, and the narrative quickly became about the fall of the middlemen – the traditional software companies that built epochal and capital-light business on a per-seat revenue model.

This article was first published in The Australian on 25 March 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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