Economics

While it may not inform your investing decisions, it’s undeniably enjoyable to look at what bulls were saying during a previous bubble and comparing those comments to what is being said today.

In this post, I compare the statements from the latest post of stock market bull Ed Yardeni, and the statements made in the April 1999 Merrill Lynch report entitled ‘e-Commerce: Virtually Here’.  

Published on 8 April, 1999, the section beginning on Page 13 and titled The Epicenter, was authored by Henry Blodget. According to The Guardian, “As the dotcom bubble was rapidly expanding in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Blodget was arguably the world’s most famous financial analyst, named Institutional Investor’s “all-star” analyst three years running and taking home a salary of US$12m from Merrill Lynch.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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On December 11, 1974, influential Austrian-born British economist and philosopher, Friedrich von Hayek, best known as a champion of free-market capitalism and classical liberalism, and a fierce critic of socialism and state intervention, delivered “The Pretence of Knowledge” as his Nobel Memorial Lecture. It was later published as an essay and remains one of his most famous critiques of central planning and hubris in economics. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary

As the list of bears publicly declaring the end of the stock market’s bull run grows, so does the wave of charts, indicators and correlations used to explain or justify the growing chorus of crash predictions.

The bear camp’s advocates now include, most vocally, Scott Galloway, Ray Dalio and Michael Burry, and perhaps more reservedly, Torsten Sløck. Others in the bear camp include Jim Rogers and Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education

Four consecutive years of high double-digit returns in the stock market is a rare occurrence.  Indeed, it’s happened once in 100 years. If this year ended on a high, it would be the second time investors enjoyed four consecutive high-returning years. 

A growing number of reputable investors, however, are suggesting that the outcome is unlikely and they’re citing the relentless rise of sovereign bond yields.

According to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, government bond yields across the Group of Seven (G7) nations have surged to their highest levels since 2004. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the growing divide between market bulls and bears, and how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the investment landscape. We explored why investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about AI’s long-term potential and the productivity gains it could unlock across the economy. We also discussed the risks rising inflation, higher bond yields and elevated interest rates could pose to markets and asset valuations if economic conditions deteriorate.

Listen to the segment here: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market Valuation, Radio.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Market Valuation, Radio

The 2026-27 Australian Federal Budget, handed down on May 12, 2026, fundamentally alters the economics of property flipping.

For decades, a tax system that rewarded capital growth over rental yield made the “buy, renovate, and flip” property model a popular way for middle-class investors with a bit of energy and an idea to get ahead.

However, Labor’s latest proposed tax reforms have gutted the high margins that once made short-term established property speculation rewarding. continue…

by Rhodri Taylor Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss the 2026 Federal Budget and whether changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and negative gearing could ultimately create unintended consequences for younger Australians. While the reforms are aimed at improving housing affordability, I explained why reduced incentives for investors and forecasts for fewer homes to be built could place further pressure on supply and long-term wealth creation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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Higher global inflation and lower growth will reflect the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U.S./Iran war. 

The near-term forecasts for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) use a Reference Scenario, Adverse Scenario and a Severe Scenario, as illustrated in Graph 1 below. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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In my latest video insight, I explain why I believe the budget could fundamentally reshape property investing in Australia. Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax may discourage investment in established properties, slow housing and credit growth, and create unintended consequences for banks, property-related businesses and younger Australians trying to build wealth.

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property, Video Insights.

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This week I am back with Over The Money Fence with Nicola Dale and Di Edwards.  

This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. 

In this episode, I reassure Nicola and Di that despite everything that’s going on globally, it’s not all doom and gloom when it comes to the economy and markets. 

Are we in a recession? I discuss the cost-of-living crisis and how this is changing our spending habits, plus the latest pricing tricks used by supermarkets and airlines. 

We also talk about property and why I believe that people who are predicting that property prices in Australia will fall by 40 per cent are wrong. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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