Economics
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An unconventional view of the 2024 annual Federal Budget?
Roger Montgomery
May 15, 2024
For decades, I have been asked if I watch the budget and analyse the government’s annual statement about income, spending, and macroeconomic forecasts. My short answer has always been, ‘no, because there’ll be another one next year.’ It sounds a little flippant and is certainly intended to be irreverent. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.
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Half-year performance: A comparative analysis of Australia’s big four banks
Roger Montgomery
May 13, 2024
It has been a while since we reported on the major banks, which have now all provided half-year updates to their operating performance.
Before reporting on their results, I think it worthwhile to provide you with a usefully simplified framework for analysing or comparing a bank’s performance. Despite claims of complexity in their reporting and differentiation in their offerings, the big four banks are relatively simple businesses to understand at a high level, and broadly undifferentiated, offering everyday banking, loans, credit cards, wealth management and insurance. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick.
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Are we in an era of higher interest rates?
David Buckland
May 10, 2024
In this week’s video insight, I discuss the transition from a long period of unusually low interest rates to what may be a new era of higher interest rates. Following the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented a policy of keeping the Fed funds rate extremely low, which encouraged fiscal behaviours based on the assumption of persistent low inflation. However, recent spikes in inflation and cost of living, alongside escalating U.S. public debt and government spending, prompt a reevaluation of this policy. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Video Insights.
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I’m with Dick Smith on this one; Julie Inman Grant shows courage.
David Buckland
May 9, 2024
Both sides of politics and most businesses are obsessed with a “big Australia”. Dick Smith is one of the few on the opposing side of the narrative. And as the Minns NSW Government usurps local councils’ planning powers by announcing their support for residential property located within 400 metres of a train station to be turned into 8–storey apartment blocks and within 800 metres of a train station to be turned into 6–storey apartment blocks, infrastructure will inevitably be left behind, and many streets will become a carpark. More public golf courses will likely be stolen in the name of green space. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Property.
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Navigating the Victorian rental crisis
Roger Montgomery
May 8, 2024
In this week’s video insight, I explore the challenging dynamics of the Victorian rental market – a pressing issue that uniquely impacts both renters and investors. Amid a nationwide rental crisis, Victoria stands out due to its plummeting rental vacancy rates and the surprising exodus of investors from the market. Despite what seems like a prime scenario for property investors, with demand high and supply low, why are many opting to leave? I delve into the reasons behind the investor retreat, explore the economic forces at play, including significant tax increases and the broader implications of these changes. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Property, Video Insights.
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Non-bank business lending and household spending
Brett Craig
May 7, 2024
Recent data from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the Australian non-bank financing sector alluded to the fact that businesses are continuing to turn to non-bank providers for funding. As evidenced in the graph below, the non-bank share of business credit is trending upwards. Businesses are actively turning to non-bank lenders for bespoke lending solutions and quicker access to capital, in order to maintain momentum and assist with achieving growth. The banking sector continues to be the dominant lender within the residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market, as the capital requirements enforced by the regulatory framework have favoured this style of lending for the banks. continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Economics.
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Ignore the tantrums and focus on what matters
Roger Montgomery
April 30, 2024
Kids are regularly disappointed – often vocally – when they don’t receive what they want. When those kids become investors, the tantrums they throw can be seen in market reactions to their disappointments. And many investors, forecasters and commentators are predicting a tantrum amid changing expectations for rate cuts in 2024. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market Valuation.
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MEDIA
How to handle market correction if it hits
Roger Montgomery
April 30, 2024
The chorus of investors who believe the market is due for a correction is growing louder, and the list of reasons is growing longer.
I have some sympathy with the view the market could pull back. I believe there is an ever-present risk of such pullbacks, so if one should emerge, it would not be surprising. Additionally, I have no belief in anyone’s ability to forecast the precise timing of such a pullback consistently, so now could be as good a time as any. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, In the Press.
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The U.S. budget deficit, stubborn U.S. interest rates and a record gold price
David Buckland
April 29, 2024
In this week’s video insight, David Buckland explores the U.S. budget deficit, steadfast U.S. interest rates, and surging gold prices. As the deficit surpasses projections and interest rates remain high, investors eye the soaring gold market. David delves into the performance of gold-focused companies like Gold Road Resources (ASX:GOR), Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS), and RED 5 (ASX:RED), predicting a shifting landscape as the appeal of the U.S. Dollar wanes. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Video Insights.
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Liquidity, not popularity, is what you should be watching
Roger Montgomery
April 17, 2024
The frequency of calls that the market is in a euphoric bubble is increasing. It’s worth exploring some of the evidence used to reach that conclusion before deciding whether now is the time to adopt a more cautious stance and to ready oneself for the benefits lower prices deliver. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.
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