Eight days ago, I wrote here about Anthropic’s forthcoming IPO, which will likely be the second most-watched in financial market history, after SpaceX’s float in June. 

What’s worrying is that since that post, a raft of Australian publications have run articles either promoting the Initial Public Offering (IPO) or advising investors on how to participate.

Unfortunately, some of these articles fail to provide anything close to comprehensive analysis, yet they confidently conclude the IPO ‘looks good’. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Jack Cowin, who brought KFC to Australia, founded Hungry Jack’s and is Chairman of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, recently shared his thoughts on interest rates:

“I was around in the 1970s when corporate interest rates were in the mid-20 per cent range, so this is a picnic. And in the 1980s or 1990s we had similarly high interest rates, so I’m somewhat bemused by the degree of concern people are expressing versus what it has been in the past…the reality is the sun will come up in the morning. The economy is cyclical, and things will rise, they will solve the problems, and the sun will come up.” Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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I read an ABC article, published recently, on inflation that suggests government spending is NOT responsible for it.

The article claims that blaming inflation on federal government outlays is a political “blame game” that oversimplifies complex economic realities. The piece argues that government spending alone doesn’t generate or mitigate inflation. Instead, it claims that budget deficits – the shortfall between revenue and outlays – are the true fiscal culprit, alongside major external factors.

It might sound like splitting hairs because, of course, a deficit occurs when government spending exceeds revenue. So… back to government spending. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) warning about the ‘five horsemen’ threatening Australia’s $4.8 trillion superannuation sector. We explored the risks posed by geopolitics, the AI investment boom, market concentration, operational vulnerabilities and liquidity pressures as more Australians enter retirement. I also explained why it is important for Australians to understand where their super is invested and whether it aligns with their risk tolerance.

Listen here: ABC Statewide Drive  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), our federal government employees received an average 7.2 per cent increase in the cash component of the wages bill to $43.8 billion, in Fiscal 2026.

Over the four years to June 2026, the cash salaries for our federal government employees have increased by 35.2 per cent, or a compound annual 7.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the annual change in employee numbers has increased by 14.7 per cent, or a compound annual 3.5 per cent. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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If you hold units in a broad global index fund, shares in a global index ETF, or have global exposure in your Australian super fund, chances are you own a piece of both Meta Platforms and Alphabet (Google). Indeed, these two tech giants have long been dominant positions in most global portfolios.

A structural shift is now taking place behind the scenes, and it directly affects their relative revenue trajectories and market valuations. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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For nearly two years, it has been an article of faith that the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution would fund its own momentum, and any enterprise failing to allocate exorbitant amounts of capital risks irrelevance.

More recently, however, that narrative has frayed under the weight of escalating capital expenditure (capex), declining free cash flows, and growing investor fatigue, if not nervousness, about the circular financing, which has escalated again with chip makers Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom recently acting as US$5 billion cornerstone investors in Meta Platforms’ US$25 billion stock sale. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I notice the Community and Public Service Sector Union (CPSU) representing 200,000 of our handsomely paid Commonwealth bureaucrats have rejected a three-year 9 per cent offer and instead have countered with a 15 per cent increase, in addition to many new conditions including a four-day working week trial, more annual leave and safeguards against artificial intelligence (AI) driven job losses. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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