When will NSW see a peak in COVID-19 cases? Gary reviews the progression we have observed so far. Read here.
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COVID-19 – A case of not grasping exponential growth
George Hadjia
March 27, 2020
Albert Einstein once said: “compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world”. The following quirky paper-folding example illustrates how compounding can hold unintuitive results, and there are a number of takeaways from this as they relate to the outbreak of COVID-19. Continue…
by George Hadjia Posted in Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Latest Update
Gary Rollo
March 27, 2020
Italy’s major national shutdown and lockdown isolation measures taken on 9 March and March 11, some 14-16 days ago, may now be showing up as lower case numbers. The timeline appears to fit the proposed initial two week quarantine period suggested for potential COVID-19 cases. Continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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US Economy Risen by Easter?
Christopher Demasi
March 26, 2020
Earlier this week US President Donald Trump started to raise hopes that restrictive measures being taken to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus would be lifted soon and the economy would be restarted by Easter. Short of a miracle, we can’t see this happening. In fact, there’s a good chance the US is even more closed then than it is now. Continue…
by Christopher Demasi Posted in Global markets.
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How the coronavirus crisis could change society
Amit Nath
March 26, 2020
Practically every major disruption or “black swan” event navigated by the human race has resulted in significant changes to society; the coronavirus will be no different. We present some potential long-term implications of this crisis which are likely to have ramifications for businesses, industries and the evolution of the investing environment for many, many years. Continue…
by Amit Nath Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Should US Airlines be bailed out?
Phillip Namara
March 25, 2020
Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 globally, Airlines are facing serious disruption from an unprecedented demand contraction, and many US airlines are on the brink of bankruptcy. Continue…
by Phillip Namara Posted in Airlines, Companies.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Part 3 NSW data update
Gary Rollo
March 25, 2020
In our third update tracking COVID-19 testing data, NSW Health started reporting data on 25 January. The data released regularly reported case epidemiology, with a high trace rate, as well as good data on disease incidence by age cohort. NSW Health also appeared to have started early with a testing plan, and we note that when that testing regime scored a hit, testing volumes jumped, and kept ramping. Continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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Rain Man and the Australian All Ordinaries Index (Part 2)
David Buckland
March 24, 2020
There have been seven bear markets since the early 1970s. That’s an average of one every seven years. Five of the bear markets, being 1974-75, the early 1980s, the early 1990s, the early 2000s, and the GFC from late 2007 until early 2009, all took approximately eighteen months to play out and all lost approximately 50 per cent from peak to trough. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Part 2 The story for Italy, the UK and US
Gary Rollo
March 24, 2020
We have been tracking COVID-19 testing data, rather than just cases alone and understanding how testing might give us some early insight on the preparedness of governments, and also to the dynamism of their response upon realising that a COVID-19 problem exists. Governments, if prepared, would want to utilise the ability to test as an early warning system first. We looked for consistent testing data and can update you on in Italy (IT), UK, and the US. Continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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