In my article for Firstlinks, I explore whether the extraordinary investment boom in artificial intelligence (AI) could ultimately end in financial pain for investors, even if the technology itself transforms society. History shows that revolutionary technologies can deliver enormous benefits while destroying the capital of those who overpaid to build them. With Big Tech committing hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure, costs rising, competitive moats weakening and the price of intelligence rapidly falling, the pressure to generate adequate returns is mounting. As cash flows come under strain and the AI trade begins to unwind, investors are left with a critical question: can the hyperscalers generate enough profit to justify the scale of spending, or is the AI boom following a familiar historical path?

You can read the article here: Firstlinks – Will AI destroy investor capital? 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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Harvey Norman Financial Year 2026 (FY26) results: Australian squeeze, overseas drag, and what it signals for the broader economy

Harvey Norman Holdings (ASX: HVN) released its FY26 full-year financial results and early FY27 trading update. While property revaluations boosted top-line profit, the underlying retail and franchising operations reflect the well-documented challenges in the domestic consumer environment, as well as overseas operational challenges. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.

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For investors who still think of NRW Holdings (ASX:NWH) as simply a mining contractor, the Financial Year 2026 (FY26) result provides a useful reason to update that view. NRW has developed into a much broader Australian industrial contracting business, providing contract mining, drill-and-blast, engineering, and civil construction services to resources and infrastructure customers. Its activities span Civil, Mining, Minerals, Energy & Technologies and, following the acquisition of Fredon, a growing range of infrastructure-related work. Its exposure now stretches across mining, public infrastructure, data centres, defence, health and renewables. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to unpack the key lessons from the 2026 reporting season. We discussed why results were generally better than feared, the importance of revenue growth over cost cutting, the volatility across individual companies, and what the results could signal for the year ahead.

Tune in from 1:45:36 here: ABC Statewide Drive

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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With Woolworths and Coles reporting their 2026 results, it’s easy to make their billions in revenue and profits political targets. But does translating their nominal Financial Year 2026 (FY26) results into the terms of an Australian household’s economics reinforce the criticisms levelled at them?

To help answer this question, I ran a bit of a thought experiment. Follow on below to find out more.

Together, Woolworths and Coles Supermarkets generated about $95.3 billion of sales in FY26. Against Australia’s latest official population estimate of 27.8 million, that equates to roughly $3,430 per Australian per year, or $66 a week. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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On Ausbiz today, I discussed why the artificial intelligence (AI) boom may be reaching a crossroads. I looked at the enormous capital being deployed by hyperscalers, falling free cash flow and rising depreciation, and why growing competition and higher funding costs could make it increasingly difficult for these companies to generate sufficient returns on their AI investment.

Watch here: The AI spending spree investors should fear

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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The Financial Year 2026 (FY26) reporting season has concluded with corporate Australia in considerably better shape than many had feared.

Before getting too excited, however, it’s worth noting corporate Australia may not be in as good shape as the headline numbers suggest.

Aggregate profits rose by around 11.6 per cent.  Excluding mining and energy, however, the increase was just 5.3 per cent. Only 36 per cent of companies beat earnings expectations, below the historical average of about 40 per cent. Meanwhile, analysts have been cutting FY27 forecasts. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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Michael Burry, the Wall Street legend made famous for shorting the 2008 U.S. housing bubble in Michael Lewis’s book The Big Short, is ramping up his short thesis again, while taking direct aim at the “idiots” (his term) in what he calls “Trump’s market”. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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