While it may not inform your investing decisions, it’s undeniably enjoyable to look at what bulls were saying during a previous bubble and comparing those comments to what is being said today.

In this post, I compare the statements from the latest post of stock market bull Ed Yardeni, and the statements made in the April 1999 Merrill Lynch report entitled ‘e-Commerce: Virtually Here’.  

Published on 8 April, 1999, the section beginning on Page 13 and titled The Epicenter, was authored by Henry Blodget. According to The Guardian, “As the dotcom bubble was rapidly expanding in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Blodget was arguably the world’s most famous financial analyst, named Institutional Investor’s “all-star” analyst three years running and taking home a salary of US$12m from Merrill Lynch.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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On December 11, 1974, influential Austrian-born British economist and philosopher, Friedrich von Hayek, best known as a champion of free-market capitalism and classical liberalism, and a fierce critic of socialism and state intervention, delivered “The Pretence of Knowledge” as his Nobel Memorial Lecture. It was later published as an essay and remains one of his most famous critiques of central planning and hubris in economics. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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As the list of bears publicly declaring the end of the stock market’s bull run grows, so does the wave of charts, indicators and correlations used to explain or justify the growing chorus of crash predictions.

The bear camp’s advocates now include, most vocally, Scott Galloway, Ray Dalio and Michael Burry, and perhaps more reservedly, Torsten Sløck. Others in the bear camp include Jim Rogers and Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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Four consecutive years of high double-digit returns in the stock market is a rare occurrence.  Indeed, it’s happened once in 100 years. If this year ended on a high, it would be the second time investors enjoyed four consecutive high-returning years. 

A growing number of reputable investors, however, are suggesting that the outcome is unlikely and they’re citing the relentless rise of sovereign bond yields.

According to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, government bond yields across the Group of Seven (G7) nations have surged to their highest levels since 2004. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Scott Galloway is an American academic, author, podcast host, and serial entrepreneur. He’s best known as a Clinical Professor of Marketing at the New York University Stern School of Business and a prominent commentator on big tech, modern economics, and social trends.

Galloway has recently and publicly joined the ranks of stock market bears, predicting we’re on the precipice of a US$10 trillion wipeout while immediately noting he, “gets this wrong all the time [so] this is not financial advice.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Before I begin; I use the term ‘workers’ in this article. It’s not intended to be disparaging. It’s a reference to a label that the Labor Government gives their core constituency. It’s the voting base Labor frequently refers to and says they support.

The 2026 Federal budget may offer an insight into Labor’s logic:

‘Tax the asset to fund their so-called ‘worker’, so that worker can buy an asset.’

The problem?

They haven’t solved a generational divide; I believe they’ve just designed a wealth-recycling machine where the Government takes a service fee at every turn.

If we look a bit closer, we find a paradox. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the growing divide between market bulls and bears, and how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the investment landscape. We explored why investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about AI’s long-term potential and the productivity gains it could unlock across the economy. We also discussed the risks rising inflation, higher bond yields and elevated interest rates could pose to markets and asset valuations if economic conditions deteriorate.

Listen to the segment here: ABC Newcastle Mornings Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market Valuation, Radio.

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There’s a thesis many investors are now positioning for: The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout being led by the hyperscalers can’t proceed without copper, silver, and other critical metals, such as scandium. Their conclusion is that commodity prices will rocket higher if the the A.I. revolution continues.

Current forecasts suggest the combined capital expenditure of Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft will reach US$715 billion in 2026, up 98 per cent on 2025 and nearly three times their combined capital expenditure (capex) in 2024. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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