I read an ABC article, published recently, on inflation that suggests government spending is NOT responsible for it.

The article claims that blaming inflation on federal government outlays is a political “blame game” that oversimplifies complex economic realities. The piece argues that government spending alone doesn’t generate or mitigate inflation. Instead, it claims that budget deficits – the shortfall between revenue and outlays – are the true fiscal culprit, alongside major external factors.

It might sound like splitting hairs because, of course, a deficit occurs when government spending exceeds revenue. So… back to government spending. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) warning about the ‘five horsemen’ threatening Australia’s $4.8 trillion superannuation sector. We explored the risks posed by geopolitics, the AI investment boom, market concentration, operational vulnerabilities and liquidity pressures as more Australians enter retirement. I also explained why it is important for Australians to understand where their super is invested and whether it aligns with their risk tolerance.

Listen here: ABC Statewide Drive  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), our federal government employees received an average 7.2 per cent increase in the cash component of the wages bill to $43.8 billion, in Fiscal 2026.

Over the four years to June 2026, the cash salaries for our federal government employees have increased by 35.2 per cent, or a compound annual 7.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the annual change in employee numbers has increased by 14.7 per cent, or a compound annual 3.5 per cent. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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If you hold units in a broad global index fund, shares in a global index ETF, or have global exposure in your Australian super fund, chances are you own a piece of both Meta Platforms and Alphabet (Google). Indeed, these two tech giants have long been dominant positions in most global portfolios.

A structural shift is now taking place behind the scenes, and it directly affects their relative revenue trajectories and market valuations. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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For nearly two years, it has been an article of faith that the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution would fund its own momentum, and any enterprise failing to allocate exorbitant amounts of capital risks irrelevance.

More recently, however, that narrative has frayed under the weight of escalating capital expenditure (capex), declining free cash flows, and growing investor fatigue, if not nervousness, about the circular financing, which has escalated again with chip makers Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom recently acting as US$5 billion cornerstone investors in Meta Platforms’ US$25 billion stock sale. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I notice the Community and Public Service Sector Union (CPSU) representing 200,000 of our handsomely paid Commonwealth bureaucrats have rejected a three-year 9 per cent offer and instead have countered with a 15 per cent increase, in addition to many new conditions including a four-day working week trial, more annual leave and safeguards against artificial intelligence (AI) driven job losses. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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I previously reported on Matt Stoller’s incisive insights into the abuse of monopoly power. Last week he reported on U.S. delivery company DoorDash’s proposed US$17 billion takeover of grocery channel operator Instacart.

While the business press is largely treating this transaction as a routine play for market dominance in food and grocery delivery, Stoller argues that the merger represents something far more fundamental. In his view, the real story isn’t just app-based delivery; it’s an ongoing effort by major tech platforms to dismantle the classic employer-employee framework that defined 20th-century life. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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Well, if you didn’t know it already, Anthropic, the startup behind the Claude chatbot ecosystem, filed a Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission this week, officially launching what may be the most-watched initial public offering (IPO) in history. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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