I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the latest developments surrounding NVIDIA and the potential risks facing the AI investment boom. We explored how smaller AI models running directly on phones and laptops could reduce demand for expensive data centres, what this could mean for major technology companies and investors, and the potential implications for Australians’ superannuation.

Tune in from 1:46:20 here: ABC Statewide Drive

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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A few aphorisms are worth reciting at this juncture in markets: You can’t put toothpaste back in a tube, and the ball rolls fastest at the bottom of the hill.

Many tech and financial companies are missing market expectations. In Q3, JP Morgan missed for the first time in three years, as did Microsoft, Intel, Alphabet, Opendoor Technologies and Amazon.

The Nasdaq fell nearly five per cent last week, putting it on course for a correction. Elsewhere, the semiconductor index plunged 12 per cent before edging higher. The VIX volatility index jumped 35 per cent to a seven-month high, while the S&P 500 was on track for its worst day since Trump imposed global tariffs on “Liberation Day”. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Juliette Saly on ausbiz to discuss how smaller AI models running directly on personal devices could challenge the economics of major AI providers and the data centre boom. We also explored what this shift could mean for companies such as Nvidia and hardware manufacturers including Apple, Dell and Lenovo.

Watch here: Is the trillion-dollar AI trade building the wrong future? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I examine how the Albanese Government’s policy decisions have contributed to Australia’s rising cost of living and ongoing economic pressures. From housing affordability and electricity prices to persistent inflation, government spending and workplace reforms, I argue that many of the challenges facing Australian households and businesses are the result of domestic policy choices rather than global economic forces.

Download the article here: Labor broke the economy Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, In the Press, Market commentary, Popular.

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I recently attended an artificial intelligence (AI) venture capital presentation where AI’s accelerating speed and capabilities were on full display.

Between 2025 and 2026, AI shifted dramatically from conversational chatbots to autonomous execution, driven by two compounding breakthroughs: exponential gains in agent task endurance and unprecedented inference speeds. Standardised benchmarks show that the time an AI agent can perform complex, multi-step tasks without human intervention roughly doubled every three to four months, while hardware innovations – such as wafer-scale engines pushing open-weights past 2,600 tokens per second – slashed response times to near-zero latency. Together, sustained, multi-hour problem-solving and lightning-fast execution transformed AI from a passive assistant into a real-time, autonomous workforce capable of handling end-to-end software engineering, scientific research, and complex workflows in seconds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Eight days ago, I wrote here about Anthropic’s forthcoming IPO, which will likely be the second most-watched in financial market history, after SpaceX’s float in June. 

What’s worrying is that since that post, a raft of Australian publications have run articles either promoting the Initial Public Offering (IPO) or advising investors on how to participate.

Unfortunately, some of these articles fail to provide anything close to comprehensive analysis, yet they confidently conclude the IPO ‘looks good’. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Jack Cowin, who brought KFC to Australia, founded Hungry Jack’s and is Chairman of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, recently shared his thoughts on interest rates:

“I was around in the 1970s when corporate interest rates were in the mid-20 per cent range, so this is a picnic. And in the 1980s or 1990s we had similarly high interest rates, so I’m somewhat bemused by the degree of concern people are expressing versus what it has been in the past…the reality is the sun will come up in the morning. The economy is cyclical, and things will rise, they will solve the problems, and the sun will come up.” Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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I read an ABC article, published recently, on inflation that suggests government spending is NOT responsible for it.

The article claims that blaming inflation on federal government outlays is a political “blame game” that oversimplifies complex economic realities. The piece argues that government spending alone doesn’t generate or mitigate inflation. Instead, it claims that budget deficits – the shortfall between revenue and outlays – are the true fiscal culprit, alongside major external factors.

It might sound like splitting hairs because, of course, a deficit occurs when government spending exceeds revenue. So… back to government spending. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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