In this week’s video insight, Brett Craig, Director at Aura Credit Holdings, our partner in private credit, and I discuss some common myths surrounding private credit. Together, we explore the evolving landscape of lending to small and medium-sized corporates in Australia, shedding light on the risks, returns, and opportunities. Brett provides valuable insights into the Aura Private Credit Income Fund, and we take a closer look at the strategies used to mitigate risks in this growing market. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Video Insights.

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A portrait of Australia’s biggest issues in eight charts. Why eight? – it’s a lucky number of course!

I have put together a concise snapshot of the complex economic challenges shaping Australia today.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property.

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In my professional opinion, there’s limited value that can be garnered from historical patterns, especially when those patterns examine the correlation between a single input and its result. Economies and markets are complex adaptive systems, and a myriad of inputs produce the market returns we subsequently experience. Just because something happened five, ten or fifteen times in the past, it is dangerous to conclude it will occur again next time. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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That’s a headline designed to capture your attention. If it has done so, it is highly probable that a crash is one of your fears. And for some people with that fear, the concern is great enough that it has impacted their investing outcomes and returns. For example, they may have held off buying shares in a company that subsequently rocketed higher, simply because you feared the market was due for a correction or crash. You may have also sold a stock too early, even though nothing about the company in which you owned the shares had changed. You simply thought some exogenous event would trigger a broad market correction. And, in a more extreme example, you were right in your prediction about the market falling, but the shares you owned continued to climb. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick.

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In this week’s interview with Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle radio, I discussed how central banks are carefully steering economies towards a soft landing. The reporting season revealed that some retailers, like Harvey Norman (ASX: HVN), are losing market share to better-performing competitors. Meanwhile, businesses such as Cash Converters (ASX: CCV) are seeing revenue growth as more individuals pawn items to manage the rising cost of living. Traditional banks, constrained by tighter post-GFC lending restrictions, face challenges in addressing the $400 billion funding gap for small and medium-sized businesses, driving growth in private credit.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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With two supermarket CEO’s facing off against the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) in the battle for supermarket reputations, I wonder whether we will see vastly different behaviours from the new heads of Coles (ASX:COL) and Woolworths (ASX:WOW) than what we might typically have expected from their predecessors. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics.

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In my recent conversation with James Findlay on Statewide Drive, I discussed several key trends in the current economic landscape. Since June, major lenders and banks have only reported a modest increase in mortgage defaults and house repossessions, while vehicle defaults remain under 1 per cent. However, ASIC data shows that Australia is on track to record the highest number of business collapses in a decade, particularly in the building and food service industries, reflecting a pullback in discretionary spending.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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Australia needs to urgently ditch the luxury car tax so that Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) aren’t the only cheap option. According to U.S. security experts, Chinese EVs are a danger to national security.

In a decisive move with significant implications for the United States (U.S.) automotive and technology sectors, the Biden Administration this week unveiled plans to prohibit the use of Chinese-developed software in internet-connected vehicles. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Technology & Telecommunications.

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