When will NSW see a peak in COVID-19 cases? Gary reviews the progression we have observed so far. Read here.
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Should US Airlines be bailed out?
Phillip Namara
March 25, 2020
Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 globally, Airlines are facing serious disruption from an unprecedented demand contraction, and many US airlines are on the brink of bankruptcy. Continue…
by Phillip Namara Posted in Airlines, Companies.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Part 3 NSW data update
Gary Rollo
March 25, 2020
In our third update tracking COVID-19 testing data, NSW Health started reporting data on 25 January. The data released regularly reported case epidemiology, with a high trace rate, as well as good data on disease incidence by age cohort. NSW Health also appeared to have started early with a testing plan, and we note that when that testing regime scored a hit, testing volumes jumped, and kept ramping. Continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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Rain Man and the Australian All Ordinaries Index (Part 2)
David Buckland
March 24, 2020
There have been seven bear markets since the early 1970s. That’s an average of one every seven years. Five of the bear markets, being 1974-75, the early 1980s, the early 1990s, the early 2000s, and the GFC from late 2007 until early 2009, all took approximately eighteen months to play out and all lost approximately 50 per cent from peak to trough. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Part 2 The story for Italy, the UK and US
Gary Rollo
March 24, 2020
We have been tracking COVID-19 testing data, rather than just cases alone and understanding how testing might give us some early insight on the preparedness of governments, and also to the dynamism of their response upon realising that a COVID-19 problem exists. Governments, if prepared, would want to utilise the ability to test as an early warning system first. We looked for consistent testing data and can update you on in Italy (IT), UK, and the US. Continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing Data – A Montgomery analysis
Gary Rollo
March 24, 2020
Here at Montgomery we have been tracking COVID-19 testing data, rather than just cases alone. Our logic is that testing drives cases, and that case growth would drive markets. So understanding testing might give us some early insight as to the likely preparedness of governments, and also to the dynamism of their response upon realising that a COVID-19 problem exists. Continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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Money News 20.03.2020
Roger Montgomery
March 24, 2020
Roger joined Brooke Corte on Money News to share an update on the coronavirus and how markets are holding up throughout this pandemic. At some stage we know that people will travel again, the health issues will end and potentially a vaccine will be developed. And when it does, all of the companies that are being sold off will bounce back. The real question today is how much lower will they go?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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How should you think about cash?
Tim Kelley
March 23, 2020
One of the biggest questions facing equity investors today is when and how to deploy surplus cash that they may have available. This is a question we have studied extensively in recent weeks, and while we can offer no definitive answers, some tentative conclusions may help to inform this decision. With that in mind, we set out here a summary of key points coming out of our analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic to date, and some thoughts on what might lie ahead. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Market commentary.
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The market doesn’t care what price you paid
George Hadjia
March 23, 2020
Recency bias – that is, the tendency to overweight recent events – is a pernicious cognitive bias when investing. Being mindful of the effects of recency bias is the first step to enabling better decision making in the stock market, particularly during periods of heightened volatility. Continue…
by George Hadjia Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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