In the Press

Themes like artificial intelligence (AI) can drive strong investor demand, but they can also blur the finer details. As more AI infrastructure businesses come to market, it’s a reminder to look beyond the excitement and focus on valuation, incentives and structure, because these are often what ultimately shape investor outcomes.

Read the article: ‘Rug pull’ or index inclusion play? Firmus’ IPO lock-up rules in focus as its roadshow rolls on continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary, On the Internet.

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I have been challenging my own thinking on this subject, and I am eager to distil the debate into the primary arguments, which are defined by a profound division.

That division mainly pits a sceptical public, the media, and some investors against an optimistic and arguably self-serving Silicon Valley, populated by tech pioneers and billionaires.

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 April 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Prior to the conflict, investors were debating AI’s immediate and long-term impact. While 2025 was about the rise of the AI “picks and shovels” – enablers like Nvidia – 2026 witnessed the emergence of agentic AI, and the narrative quickly became about the fall of the middlemen – the traditional software companies that built epochal and capital-light business on a per-seat revenue model.

This article was first published in The Australian on 25 March 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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The news that an Iranian drone reportedly struck a U.S.-linked commercial oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has done more than just spike the price of oil; it’s arguably shattered the fragile market equilibrium we’ve seen since the start of the year. And arguably, as intended, it has distracted everyone from the Epstein files.

At the time of writing Brent and WTI crude were up $US15 to $US107 a barrel. The Nikkei plummeted 4.5 per cent, and U.S. futures have cratered by as much as two per cent. So, why has a single drone strike erased billions in equity value across the globe?

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 March 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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However, as the tide of cheap liquidity recedes, we’re seeing a typical correction as investors retreat from riskier assets.

Investors must now navigate a treacherous confluence of shifting narratives just as global liquidity is structurally changing. The dangers are building.

This article was first published in The Australian on 26 February 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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It’s a shot across the bow. In recent weeks, short, sharp sell-offs across the largest global artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers have woken investors from their technology and AI-inspired slumber. In just six trading sessions, Microsoft fell 18 per cent. Meanwhile, Amazon has declined 14 per cent in eight sessions, and Google parent Alphabet has fallen 8 per cent in just four sessions. Elsewhere, Meta fell 10 per cent, and Tesla has declined almost 12 per cent in 10 trading sessions.

This article was first published in The Australian on 11 February 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Yet, the stock market’s buoyancy belies the head-spinning conga line of events over the first month of 2026 that would, at any other time in history, have caused the market to plunge or coincided with it.

Take gold’s 17 per cent ascent so far this month, which follows a 66 per cent rise in 2025. Such moves are unusual. Since gold began trading freely in the 1970s, the average annual return for gold has been roughly 6-8 per cent. January’s return doubles that annual number.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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In my latest article for Firstlinks, I reflect on why 2025 delivered another strong year for equities, supported by the continued combination of disinflation and positive economic growth – with much of the strength driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI).

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, On the Internet.

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While most currently consider bubbles a dangerous precondition for a stock market crash, they can also be better navigated by appreciating they’re a necessary step on the road to humanity’s advancement.

As I have noted previously, there’s a myriad of definitions for asset bubbles, but most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.
This article was first published in The Australian on 20 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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With that caveat out of the way, I am reasonably confident we should expect greater volatility and lower returns in 2026. Let me explain why I think that’s a reasonable assessment.

Since 2022, I have suggested that investors maintain a bullish disposition.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, In the Press.

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