Global markets
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Amazon and Google shares plunge: The AI bill is coming due
Roger Montgomery
October 31, 2026
Until now, Wall Street has been treating generative artificial intelligence (AI) as a license to justify virtually any valuation, no matter how lofty.
Aggressive spending today to dominate the architecture of tomorrow’s economy has led equity and bond investors to fall over themselves to avoid missing the next transformation of humanity.
However, over the last 24 hours, the market’s patience seems to have cracked. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
The Australian – Bond market revival rewards investors but threatens stock values
Roger Montgomery
October 30, 2026
In my latest article for The Australian, I explore why government bonds are becoming increasingly attractive after more than a decade of low yields and market volatility. I examine the forces driving U.S. Treasury yields, including economic growth, interest rate expectations and demand for safe assets, and explain why a slowing economy could create opportunities for bond investors through both income and potential capital gains, while presenting challenges for equity markets.
Download the article here: Bonds were down and out – now they could beat stocks continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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A U.S. view of Firmus
Roger Montgomery
October 19, 2026
Everyone seems to have jumped on the carcass of the Firmus Initial Public Offering (IPO) to dissect what went wrong. Since it was a local company listing on the domestic market, it’s understandable Australian news outlets and financial commentators have shown so much interest.
But while local commentators and media outlets continue to report on what would have become Australia’s largest-ever float, U.S. commentators are also responding. The difference is some are reading the pulled IPO through a far more ominous lens, one that says the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble is ending. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Too much AI, too little return?
Roger Montgomery
October 15, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the growing risks surrounding the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and whether the billions being invested in infrastructure can deliver sustainable returns. We explored the industry’s reliance on debt-funded hyperscalers and venture capital-backed startups, and how a slowdown in funding could trigger a domino effect across the sector. We also discussed the disappointing Firmus IPO, CoreWeave’s recent share price decline, and the risk of excess data centre capacity if demand fails to meet expectations.
Watch here: Too much Ai, too little return. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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Sovereign debt yields continue to climb – is a debt crisis on the cards?
David Buckland
October 12, 2026
In the past six years, French Government ten-year bond yield has jumped from negative 0.3 per cent to 4.9 per cent, the highest level in 24 years. Investors are starting to differentiate between each euro-denominated country with German and Dutch ten-year bonds yielding 3.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, Greek and Italian ten-year bonds yield 4.55 per cent and 4.65 per cent, respectively, indicating potential contagion as confidence appears to be in short supply. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
READ HERE -
Generational market top?
Roger Montgomery
October 9, 2026
Independent economic research and investment strategy firm Variant Perception (VP) has shared its latest market musings, and the phrase “generational equity top” got a run.
The equal-weighted Value Line Arithmetic Index is drawing down from its August high, while the Nasdaq 100 is rallying… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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Silver lining in bond market carnage
Roger Montgomery
October 8, 2026
For decades, the 60/40 Balanced Portfolio was zealously and even religiously adhered to. The fixed income component was the dependable anchor, providing a steady yield, protection against stock market volatility, while allowing investors to sleep soundly at night.
More recently, bond returns have given sleeping investors a rude awakening.
U.S. analyst Ben Carlson recently highlighted this shift, pointing out that modern bondholders have endured a catastrophe, describing the market as “…the most brutal bond market in modern finance history,” adding, “It’s no wonder bonds are the most hated asset class in the world.” continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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The Fallacy of Composition
Roger Montgomery
October 7, 2026
In the stock market, equity analysts are typically bottom-up researchers. That means they start their analysis of an individual company with specific financial metrics and fundamentals, rather than macroeconomic trends or overall industry outlooks.
Instead of starting with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, interest rates, or sector tailwinds, a bottom-up analyst focuses on a company’s internal strengths, business model, and valuation.
A problem arises because modelling a specific company using the bottom-up approach occurs in a vacuum.
Analyst A assumes Company A will take market share away from Company B. Analyst B assumes Company B will hold its market share and grow sales by 10 per cent. Analyst C assumes Company C will benefit from lower commodity prices, while Analyst D assumes the commodity producer will raise prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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The runway for equities – are markets settling into a new pace?
Roger Montgomery
October 6, 2026
The narrative surrounding global equities is subtly shifting. Once dominated by momentum-driven optimism, especially for artificial intelligence (AI), today’s market discussions instead focus on structural frictions.
The most bullish equity strategist of note is U.S. researcher Edward Yardeni, whose Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO) thesis has driven his estimate for the S&P500 to reach 8,400 – 10 per cent higher than where we are today. Originally, this target was slated for the end of 2026, but now Yardeni has moved it to the middle of next year.
He notes the recalibration isn’t a reassessment of FEMO, but an acknowledgement of macro headwinds that limit immediate price to earnings (P/E) multiple expansion. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The playbook for a higher-inflation world
Roger Montgomery
October 1, 2026
I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss persistent inflation in the U.S., the impact of rising wages and services costs, and why the Federal Reserve may have limited room to ease rates. We also explored the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout, growing demand for capital and the pressure higher borrowing costs could place on hyperscalers, before discussing how private credit may fit within a higher-inflation environment. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
