Global markets

In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.

The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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With the prospect of a full-scale war in the Middle East increasing, with bond yields heating up, and with famed short seller Michael Burry increasing his short position against the U.S. SOXX Semiconductor Index, could this month be the month that investors will look back on with regret, wishing they’d diversified?

It’s a midterm election year in the U.S.

Let’s begin with the U.S. Midterm elections in mind. Did you know the midterm year is historically the worst year of the four-year presidential cycle for stocks? Some analysts suggest it’s because of something called the “midterm discount.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights.

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Travellers to Switzerland overwhelmingly describe the alpine nation as breathtaking, safe, and efficient – a dream destination with dreamlike Alpine landscapes. Those with a keen eye will also notice that one of the most beautiful places they have ever visited is

expensive, but it’s clean, the public transport is punctual, and the villages are charming. I have often heard friends return with the phrase “Everything just works”. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets.

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Should persistent inflation drive a portfolio shift?

Helped by a 12 per cent rally since the war-inspired low recorded on March 30, the U.S. S&P 500 index is now at new all-time highs and more than two per cent above its previous all-time high recorded in February. 

It’s reasonable to conclude the global and U.S. economies are healthy and booming, as is the AI rollout. But those booms, along with the shocks stemming from war in the Middle East, may be sowing the seeds of a pivot and an inflation threat that could have serious implications for portfolio construction. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australian consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in more than five decades, despite relatively low unemployment (around 4.3 per cent compared to over 11 per cent in the 1990s) and interest rates (around 4.1 per cent compared to 17.5 per cent in the 1990s), with the key drivers being a sharp rise in household debt (now about 180 per cent of disposable income versus roughly 45 per cent four to five decades ago) and an intense cost-of-living squeeze across housing, childcare (around $180 per day), education (something that used to be free), and everyday expenses. I also highlighted how this pressure is contributing to a hollowing out of the middle class and increasing postcode-driven inequality, while noting that periods of extremely weak sentiment can sometimes create opportunities for long-term investors as fear drives short-term market dislocations.
continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I have been challenging my own thinking on this subject, and I am eager to distil the debate into the primary arguments, which are defined by a profound division.

That division mainly pits a sceptical public, the media, and some investors against an optimistic and arguably self-serving Silicon Valley, populated by tech pioneers and billionaires.

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 April 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Yikes! Did the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) just propose a material reduction in its balance sheet?

After the war is over, investors will revert to concentrating on earnings and other thematics again, and a recent Fed research paper may give investors something to worry about. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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What’s war good for? With apologies to Motown songwriters Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong, absolutely nothing from humanity’s point of view. While the human cost of conflict – measured in lives lost, families displaced, and immense suffering – is profound and undeniable, the historical relationship between geopolitical chaos and long-term market valuations is remarkably detached, perhaps because markets grind on, focused on profits and with what appears to be indifference to the tragedies that dominate the headlines. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss why geopolitical shocks often coincide with resilient equity markets. History shows that while wars and major conflicts can trigger sharp initial sell-offs, markets have often recovered quickly and, in some cases, delivered strong returns during those periods. During World War I, for example, U.S. equities initially fell by around 30 per cent before going on to generate average annual gains of close to 7 per cent between 1915 and 1918, including a particularly strong rebound in 1915. World War II also aligned with solid Dow Jones returns, depending on the start and end dates used. And according to data from LPL Financial on 22 major non-financial shocks since Pearl Harbor, markets have typically fallen by around 5 per cent before recovering fully within about six weeks. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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Pivots galore

Few global macroeconomists have carried as much recent optimism as Ed Yardeni, who, as president of Yardeni Research, has spent the better part of this decade championing a ‘Roaring 2020s’ thesis – a nod to the roaring 1920s, on the back of productivity gains, technological innovation, and a resilient American consumer, Yardeni’s thesis has included a very bullish end to 2026.

In an interview with Thoughtful Money, however, Yardeni pivoted. While not abandoning his longer-term bullish base case entirely, the war in the Middle East, seems to have influenced a bit of a capitulation. He has also increased his probability of a recession from 20 per cent to 35 per cent, on the back of geopolitical volatility and the return of ‘bond market vigilantes’ – the latter being a term Yardeni famously coined in the 1980s to describe investors who protest inflationary fiscal policy by selling bonds. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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