Global markets

In a fascinating Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, published this week, the U.S. state of Wyoming reportedly bought 2,312 ounces of gold in December after passing a law requiring the state’s investment portfolio to add precious metals as a hedge against economic turmoil.

According to the WSJ, “Among [Wyoming’s] worries are rising federal debt, inflation and a weak U.S. dollar – but also more extreme calamities, according to Bob Ide, a Republican state senator and lead sponsor of the ‘Wyoming Gold Act.”

For me, however, it was Ide’s comment about a U.S. default that piqued my interest, and should yours. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary

I joined Philip Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the shift toward a more volatile market environment in 2026. With inflation likely rising again, growth slowing and oil prices climbing, the key conditions that supported recent equity gains are fading. We also explored potential war scenarios involving Iran and how they could impact markets, inflation and interest rates.

Given this backdrop, I highlighted the need to rethink portfolio construction, with private credit emerging as a potential alternative offering attractive income with lower volatility. We also touched on rising fuel costs, price pressures on consumers, and broader structural challenges in Australia’s economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio

The news that an Iranian drone reportedly struck a U.S.-linked commercial oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has done more than just spike the price of oil; it’s arguably shattered the fragile market equilibrium we’ve seen since the start of the year. And arguably, as intended, it has distracted everyone from the Epstein files.

At the time of writing Brent and WTI crude were up $US15 to $US107 a barrel. The Nikkei plummeted 4.5 per cent, and U.S. futures have cratered by as much as two per cent. So, why has a single drone strike erased billions in equity value across the globe?

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 March 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary

With the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries agreeing to release 400 million barrels of oil, the largest ever since its creation in the 1970s, to lower crude prices from the war with Iran, it might inspire some investors to believe the threat to markets has been assuaged. But at the same time, Iran has attacked approximately 20 commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz so far.

The Strait is now part of the Middle East war’s frontline as Iran seeks to inflict maximum economic pain on the world in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes on its territory. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary

The Trump administration’s decision to initiate a wide-scale military campaign against Iran, recently coined Operation Epic Fury, can be viewed through a number of lenses.  Some might say the strikes have been framed by Washington as a multifaceted necessity for global and domestic security. Others may simply say, the justifications for the strikes keep changing. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary

I joined ABC News to discuss the market reaction to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Surging oil prices and concerns about supply disruptions have rattled global markets, prompting investors to reassess risks and reduce exposure to equities.

Watch here: ABC The Business. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, TV Appearances

I’ve been spending some time today looking through Terry Moran’s latest piece on President Trump’s approach to the escalating conflict in Iran. Moran’s take – that the President is essentially “winging it” – is a sobering read for any disciplined investor.

According to Moran, when you look at the transcripts from the President’s recent flurry of interviews with the New York Times, ABC News, The Atlantic, Fox News, and MS Now, you don’t see a cohesive strategy. You see a series of contradictory “exits.” One minute it’s a popular uprising, the next it’s a negotiated settlement, and the next it’s “we’ll see what happens.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary

U.S. consumer delinquencies jump to highest in almost a decade

As reported by Bloomberg, delinquency rates on loans rose to 4.8 per cent of all outstanding U.S. household debt in the fourth quarter, the highest level since 2017. The rise in defaults was driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, particularly in lower income zip codes, and student-loan delinquencies. Overall household debt balances climbed 1 per cent from the previous quarter to $18.8 trillion, with the share of credit-card loans at least 90 days delinquent rising to 12.7 per cent. The jobless rate for workers 16 to 24 years old stood at 10.4 per cent in December, near the highest levels since the depths of the pandemic in 2021. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary

On statewide drive with Jess Maguire, I explained that recent market volatility reflects investors reassessing some big assumptions, particularly after Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair.

Many investors had been expecting lower U.S. interest rates, so the nomination caught markets off guard and forced a reversal of those bets. That led to sharp falls in gold and silver, higher bond yields, and weaker share prices. While precious metals may recover over time, I see the bigger influence on sharemarkets as the gradual unwinding of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. For Australia, stronger U.S. growth can support some companies, but persistent inflation risks and policy uncertainty mean investors are becoming more cautious and re-evaluating risk.

Listen from 1:44:55 here: ABC Statewide Drive. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio

Yet, the stock market’s buoyancy belies the head-spinning conga line of events over the first month of 2026 that would, at any other time in history, have caused the market to plunge or coincided with it.

Take gold’s 17 per cent ascent so far this month, which follows a 66 per cent rise in 2025. Such moves are unusual. Since gold began trading freely in the 1970s, the average annual return for gold has been roughly 6-8 per cent. January’s return doubles that annual number.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation