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Fear + Greed Podcast Q&A – 10 lessons for investors from reporting season
Roger Montgomery
September 1, 2026
Australia’s FY26 reporting season looked reasonably strong on the surface, with aggregate profits rising by around 11.6 per cent. But underneath the headline numbers, the recovery was much narrower – and investors were often more interested in what companies said about FY27 than the profits they had just reported.
I speak with Michael Thompson from Fear + Greed, about my 10 lessons from reporting season. We discuss why consumers are still spending but demanding value, expensive bank valuations, the limits of cost-cutting, opportunities in healthcare and why stock selection is becoming increasingly important. continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Popular.
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What did Coles bring to the checkout in FY26?
Roger Montgomery
August 27, 2026
Supermarket giant Coles Group released its FY26 full-year earnings this week, delivering metrics that were modestly ahead of market expectations.
Despite persistent cost-of-living pressures facing Australian households, the company reported solid execution, robust supermarket growth, and strong efficiency measures.
Initial market excitement, however, is being tempered by an elevated capital expenditure outlook and a softer-than-expected early trading update for FY27.
Consequently, investors will weigh the solid historical performance against near-term cash-flow headwinds and competitive threats. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular.
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Understanding private credit risk with Open Analytics
Scott Phillips
August 18, 2026
I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about how independent credit analysis can help investors and advisers better understand and compare risk across private credit portfolios.
Brett explains how Aura works with Open Analytics to independently assess its portfolios each month using bank-grade credit risk methodologies. The analysis considers every underlying loan, incorporates changing economic conditions and runs one million Monte Carlo simulations to assess expected credit losses and portfolio resilience. The resulting S&P-equivalent credit ratings provide advisers and investors with an additional, objective tool to support due diligence and understand the underlying risk within Aura’s private credit portfolios.
Learn more about private credit.
Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. continue…by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Popular, Video Insights.
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Why Australian Private Credit is different
Scott Phillips
August 18, 2026
I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about the key differences between the Australian and U.S. private credit markets, and why the risks making headlines overseas may not necessarily translate directly to Australia. We discuss how differences in borrowers, lending structures, loan duration, asset security and legal frameworks can result in very different risk profiles.
We also explore Aura Private Credit’s approach, including its focus on established businesses, asset-backed lending, shorter-duration loans and portfolio diversification. Brett explains why understanding how a manager generates returns, manages liquidity and protects against potential losses can be more important than simply comparing headline yields.
Learn more about private credit.
Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. continue…by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Video Insights.
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Why Aussie Broadband fits our investment approach
Gary Rollo
August 13, 2026
In this video I discuss Aussie Broadband (ASX: ABB), a growing challenger in Australia’s retail broadband market with around 15 per cent of the NBN market across its retail and wholesale services.
The company has delivered double-digit organic sales growth alongside acquisitions, while increasing scale may support further growth and operating efficiencies. Earnings are expected to grow over the next two years, supported by a cashflow-generative business and relatively low gearing.
While concerns around competition from Starlink have recently weighed on the share price, I explain why the current valuation may offer an attractive entry point if ABB continues to execute on its growth strategy. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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August 2026 reporting season calendar
Roger Montgomery
August 6, 2026
Australia’s August reporting season is now underway, with investors turning their attention from macroeconomic headlines to what ultimately matters most over the long term: company earnings and outlook statements.
This reporting season arrives against the backdrop of uncertainty in the economy. We expect strong results from major resource companies following a favourable year for commodity prices, while many consumer-facing and housing-related businesses may disappoint and are likely to deliver more cautious guidance as elevated interest rates, higher operating costs and ever-changing tax settings continue to pressure margins. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Popular.
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Right now, concentration is your portfolio’s biggest threat
Roger Montgomery
July 30, 2026
On the surface, markets appear remarkably resilient, so if you’ve felt a sense of calm looking at your portfolio performance lately, you aren’t alone.
But look beneath the surface and the structural fragility you’ll see in valuations, government debt, and global trade makes holding a narrow, concentrated equity portfolio (including any portfolio largely invested in index ETFs) one of the more dangerous bets an investor can make right now. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Watching Hyperscaler debt
Roger Montgomery
July 17, 2026
Many years ago, I was asked by an AFR journalist whether I would revise my valuation of ABC Learning Centres, which was a tiny fraction of the traded price at the time, given the Singaporean Sovereign Wealth Fund (Temasek) had just invested in the company’s then-latest capital raise at a much higher market valuation.
Full of youthful confidence, I responded: “stupid people live in all different countries.”
A familiar pattern of fundraising and deployment was playing out at ABC Learning. It was one I had seen before and one which often resulted in pear-shaped returns for equity investors. That was certainly the case at ABC, which subsequently blew up spectacularly. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Consumer confidence – A gentle uptrend after a 53-year low
David Buckland
July 8, 2026
Consumer confidence appears to be slowly improving after hitting its lowest level in 53 years in April 2026. While the recent uptrend is encouraging, confidence remains fragile, with household debt, cost-of-living pressures and recent interest rate increases still weighing heavily on consumers. The question now is whether this rebound marks the beginning of a genuine recovery, or simply a modest lift from extremely depressed levels. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
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Turning the page from Fiscal 2026 to Fiscal 2027
David Buckland
July 2, 2026
As we begin Fiscal 2027, it is worth taking a step back to reflect on the major themes that shaped global markets over the past year. I explore the key developments across equities, bonds, interest rates, commodities and currencies, and consider what they may mean for investors going forward.
From Magnificent Seven to Memory Seven
In the three calendar years 2023-2025, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), rose by an average 333 per cent, turning $1.00 into $4.33.
That strong upward trajectory came to an end in the six months to June 2026, with an average decline of 2 per cent. With Microsoft (-23 per cent),Meta (-15 per cent) and Tesla (-6 per cent) leading the fall.
The baton has been passed to the “Memory” sector with an average 419 per cent capital appreciation across seven companies in six months to June 2026 being reported, namely: SanDisk (+858 per cent), Kioxia (+759 per cent), Micron Technology (+304 per cent), SK Hynix (+305 per cent), Intel (+278 per cent), Marvell Technology (+251 per cent) and Samsung (+177 per cent). continue…by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Property.
