Editor’s Pick
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – FDC’s ASX debut – a builder with bite
David Buckland
July 9, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the ASX debut of FDC Consolidated (ASX), outlining why I believe the construction and fit-out business presents a compelling investment opportunity. I highlighted its 36-year track record, strong insider ownership, large work in progress, repeat client base and attractive forecast yield, while noting that quality businesses can still attract investor demand despite a subdued Initial Public Offering (IPO) market. We also discussed Australia’s fragile consumer confidence, with high household debt, rising rents and ongoing cost-of-living pressures continuing to weigh on sentiment, even as confidence gradually recovers from its 53-year low.
Watch here: FDC’s ASX debut – a builder with bite continue…by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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The Big Short targets AI
Roger Montgomery
July 8, 2026
If you’ve been following our blogs and Montgomery Minutes about noted short seller Michael Burry, you’ll know he’s been making headlines this year for shorting the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Late last week, he reported he has again increased those short bets.
If you haven’t been following our posts on the subject, Michael Burry is the former chief of the now-closed hedge fund manager Scion Asset Management and was immortalised by Michael Lewis in his 2010 book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, which reported on Burry’s large asymmetric bets against the 2008 U.S. housing bubble. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Consumer confidence – A gentle uptrend after a 53-year low
David Buckland
July 8, 2026
Consumer confidence appears to be slowly improving after hitting its lowest level in 53 years in April 2026. While the recent uptrend is encouraging, confidence remains fragile, with household debt, cost-of-living pressures and recent interest rate increases still weighing heavily on consumers. The question now is whether this rebound marks the beginning of a genuine recovery, or simply a modest lift from extremely depressed levels. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
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MEDIA
The Australian – Don’t write off gold’s polish – it could save you from an AI crash
Roger Montgomery
July 6, 2026
In my latest article for The Australian, I examine how investor attention has been almost completely hijacked by artificial intelligence (AI), leaving gold largely overlooked despite many of the conditions that have historically supported it. In theory, an era of mounting sovereign debt, structural inflation and geopolitical uncertainty should favour gold. If today’s AI enthusiasm eventually gives way to a market correction, investors may find themselves giving gold a second look…
Download the article here: Don’t write off gold’s polish – it could save you from an AI crash continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Value.able.
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Turning the page from Fiscal 2026 to Fiscal 2027
David Buckland
July 2, 2026
As we begin Fiscal 2027, it is worth taking a step back to reflect on the major themes that shaped global markets over the past year. I explore the key developments across equities, bonds, interest rates, commodities and currencies, and consider what they may mean for investors going forward.
From Magnificent Seven to Memory Seven
In the three calendar years 2023-2025, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), rose by an average 333 per cent, turning $1.00 into $4.33.
That strong upward trajectory came to an end in the six months to June 2026, with an average decline of 2 per cent. With Microsoft (-23 per cent),Meta (-15 per cent) and Tesla (-6 per cent) leading the fall.
The baton has been passed to the “Memory” sector with an average 419 per cent capital appreciation across seven companies in six months to June 2026 being reported, namely: SanDisk (+858 per cent), Kioxia (+759 per cent), Micron Technology (+304 per cent), SK Hynix (+305 per cent), Intel (+278 per cent), Marvell Technology (+251 per cent) and Samsung (+177 per cent). continue…by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Property.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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The AI bubble – Cracks beneath the surface
Roger Montgomery
June 30, 2026
In this video insight, I explain why I believe investors should look beyond the strong earnings and seemingly reasonable valuations driving enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI). I examine questions surrounding optimistic market assumptions, insider selling incentives, the economics of AI, rising debt levels, weakening cash flows, and whether reported earnings are overstating the sector’s underlying profitability. I also argue that low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios do not necessarily protect markets from significant corrections and suggest the real bubble may lie in AI earnings expectations rather than share prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Are petrol retailers price fixing?
Roger Montgomery
June 29, 2026
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) needs to follow California’s lead and get on this!
I want to tell you about a product called Kalibrate Fuel Pricing. Kalibrate, the company that provides artificial intelligence (AI) driven fuel pricing and market analytics software, is owned by the private equity firm Hanover Bidco.
Kalibrate Fuel Pricing requests petrol station owners to provide sensitive, non-public data, including historical gas sale costs, volumes, forecasted costs, and margins. Using this private data alongside publicly available information, it offers pricing recommendations for petrol. Kalibrate describes this approach as “competitor-led fuel pricing decisions” and claims to provide “complete visibility on your competitors.”
That all sounds reasonable when thinking about an individual station using the service. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Market commentary.
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Understanding the U.S. debt and liquidity crunch
Roger Montgomery
June 25, 2026
A layman’s guide to CrossBorder Capital’s latest financial outlook.
The core problem: A tsunami of government debt
Macroeconomic research house CrossBorder Capital’s Michael Howell recently summarised the dilemma confronting the U.S. Federal Reserve under newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh.
For most, the use of proprietary indicators and the esoteric interpretations is likely to be skimmed over, but sometimes a bit of additional attention pays dividends. Right now might be one of those junctures.
The U.S. government funds its budget shortfalls by issuing bonds – essentially IOUs to investors. To keep this system running smoothly, two things are required: balance-sheet capacity (the financial ability of large institutions to buy and hold these bonds) and market liquidity (the amount of readily available cash circulating to trade them). continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Nothing to see here
Roger Montgomery
June 24, 2026
According to the most bullish investors the current bull market bears little resemblance to the tech bubble of 1999/2000.
That late-90s tech bubble was fueled by a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), which was reflected in the very high price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples. Today’s bull market is accompanied by much more reasonable valuations suggesting that the rally is merely reflecting an equally steep increase in real earnings.
In early 2000, the tech sector’s forward P/E ratio stood at 55 times, and the broader S&P500 rose to 25 times forward earnings; today, the S&P500 sits on a forward P/E of 20.5 times and the tech sector on 23 times.
The bulls suggest an earnings-driven rally (as reflected in modest P/E ratios) is inherently more sustainable than one built on expanding hope and P/Es. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Navigating the new tax landscape – The shift from capital growth to income yield and the case for private credit
Roger Montgomery
June 22, 2026
The Federal Labor Government’s 2026-27 Budget tax reform package represents the most sweeping overhaul of Australia’s investment tax landscape in nearly three decades. By winding back the traditional pillars of wealth creation – specifically the 50 per cent Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing on established residential property – the government has fundamentally altered the math of investing.
While today’s major policy concessions (including exemptions for testamentary trusts and a step back from sweeping ministerial discretionary powers) provide some targeted relief, the core framework remains intact.
The clear takeaway for investors is a systemic structural shift: the traditional focus on heavily leveraged capital growth has been severely compromised, making high-yielding income generation far more appealing. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Property.
