Editor’s Pick

Proposed changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax (CGT) and new Australian Taxation Office (ATO) rules for holiday homes could significantly alter the economics of property investing in Australia. By reducing the tax advantages associated with property ownership, the changes may weaken demand across several investor groups and influence property prices over time.

Drawing on supply and demand principles, this whitepaper paper examines how investors, rentvesters, property flippers, holiday homeowners and discretionary trusts could be affected. It also explores the potential impact on borrowing capacity, resale demand and the attractiveness of established residential property compared with new builds. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Popular, Property, Whitepapers.

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“You cannot be afraid of new technologies. I think that this tenet passed Warren Buffett by. As he is the greatest investor of all time, I think it’s important to recognise that if he were not afraid of product cycles and obsolescence, he would have made much more these last few years than he did. Now, I know we shouldn’t criticise someone of his unbelievable prowess, but we must also recognise that it was wrong not to include technology stocks in the portfolio…[they] are creating too much wealth to ignore.”

With Musk now the world’s first recorded trillionaire after SpaceX’s float last Friday, you might be thinking the above quote has merit, especially as 60 per cent of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio is sitting in cash. 

But the above quote, by Jim Cramer, was made in January 2000, just three months before the Dot.Com crash wiped 76.81 per cent from the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite index and investors saw an estimated US$5 trillion in paper wealth evaporate between 2000 and 2002. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Kirsten Aiken on ABC The Business to discuss the challenges facing Australia’s retail sector. With higher interest rates slowing the economy and uncertainty around proposed tax changes weighing on consumer confidence, spending has softened across age groups. We explored the pressures facing traditional retailers, the accelerating shift to online shopping, the impact of global competitors, and why department stores such as Myer and David Jones continue to face long-term challenges as consumer habits evolve.

Watch here: Challenges grow for the retail sector, Glue the latest to close. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Since January 1999, Macquarie Bank’s shares have risen almost 1,400 per cent, and that excludes the returns from reinvesting dividends. That’s just capital gains alone.  Assuming the Federal Labor Party is voted out, and their capital gains tax disincentives are unwound, there could be another Macquarie-Bank-like 1999 opportunity. The opportunity to buy a mini Macquarie on the ground floor might be Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG).

On 11 June 2026, the Australian Competition and Consumer Comission (ACCC) decided to approve Magellan Financial Group Ltd’s (MFG) proposed acquisition of the remaining shares in Barrenjoey Capital Partners Group Holdings Pty Limited (Barrenjoey) that it does not already own, in return for equity in MFG (the Acquisition).

Magellan Financial Group’s acquisition of the remaining shares in investment bank Barrenjoey was approved by shareholders in April 2026. Completion is expected in early July 2026.

Here are the key terms and structural details of the merger: continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Financial Services.

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The defining irony of today’s stock market has got to be the yawning chasm between asset prices and their intrinsic values. As equity indices scale ever higher peaks, and as hyper-parabolic Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios are normalised, the underlying truths don’t seem to have changed. Eventually even this bubble must bust.

U.S.-based senior economist at the Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington, DC, and author of the ‘AI Bubble Monitor’, and U.S.-based antitrust and policy analyst Matt Stoller reckon this dynamic can be attributed to something Stoller calls the “Number Go Up Rule”– a systematic rewiring of institutional incentives to ensure corporate valuations ascend at all costs, and frequently favouring speculative mania over fundamentally productive or socially additive enterprises. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.

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Bullish investors believe AI is a new, infinite fourth factor of a nation’s production and wealth creation. In the past, we had labour, capital and land as production inputs, all of which were, of course, finite. Land provided the raw materials, labour the muscle and the mind to transform them, and capital was the tool.

Enter AI. The transformative aspect of this fourth ingredient is that, unlike the physical limitations of land or the finite hours of the human workforce, data is a resource that is functionally unlimited. And, importantly, it’s the only factor of production that actually grows more abundant the more we use it.

This article was first published in The Australian on 27 May 2026.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Before I begin; I use the term ‘workers’ in this article. It’s not intended to be disparaging. It’s a reference to a label that the Labor Government gives their core constituency. It’s the voting base Labor frequently refers to and says they support.

The 2026 Federal budget may offer an insight into Labor’s logic:

‘Tax the asset to fund their so-called ‘worker’, so that worker can buy an asset.’

The problem?

They haven’t solved a generational divide; I believe they’ve just designed a wealth-recycling machine where the Government takes a service fee at every turn.

If we look a bit closer, we find a paradox. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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If you were thinking of buying a, say, a $2 million property to renovate and flip in 18 months, Labor’s 2026 budget just made that a perilous strategy, while also making investing in an AA rated Private Credit Fund way more attractive.

The 2026 Federal Budget has significantly shifted the goalposts for you. If you haven’t signed a contract yet, you are stepping into a very different tax environment than the one that existed last week.

In the current 2026 climate, a private credit fund returning 7.22 per cent as at 31 March 2026*, is almost certainly the superior choice for a $2 million allocation over an 18-month horizon.

*Returns are net of fees and assumes reinvestment of distributions. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. Inception date 4 October 2022. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Property.

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In my latest video insight, I explain why I believe the budget could fundamentally reshape property investing in Australia. Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax may discourage investment in established properties, slow housing and credit growth, and create unintended consequences for banks, property-related businesses and younger Australians trying to build wealth.

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property, Video Insights.

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The 2026 Federal Budget has landed with some significant implications for investors.
I discuss the key economic indicators and the tax changes that are set to reshape the investment landscape.

Economy

The starting point is to expect higher global inflation and lower growth with the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U.S./Iran war.

Growth in Australia is expected to slow to 1.75 per cent in 2026/2027.

Real wages are expected to go backwards again, which means living standards are expected to decline. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.

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