Market commentary

I have often joked that billionaire Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater, has predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions. In other words, far more than transpired.

It’s worth remembering the late Charlie Munger’s observation about forecasts: The only thing one needs to do to be a successful forecaster is to forecast often. 

Dalio is certainly a frequent prognosticator.

I can tell you, from painful personal experience, that trying to accurately predict a complex system like the global economy and financial system is nearly impossible, and it’s made more difficult by the fact that investors respond unpredictably even to the same scenarios presented at different times. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined ABC News to discuss the market reaction to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Surging oil prices and concerns about supply disruptions have rattled global markets, prompting investors to reassess risks and reduce exposure to equities.

Watch here: ABC The Business. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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This morning on ABC Newcastle Mornings with Paul Turton, I discussed how markets respond to geopolitical shocks and why investors should keep their focus on underlying fundamentals. While conflicts can cause short-term volatility, history shows markets often recover as investors anticipate recovery spending and economic growth.

Beyond the headlines, markets are still grappling with elevated valuations, the potential disruption from artificial intelligence, and weaker economic signals such as the recent U.S. jobs report. I also noted that prolonged conflict could lift the cost of oil, fertiliser, plastics and energy, which can flow through to higher prices across the broader economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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I recently wrote an article for The Australian, titled, How AI boom and a liquidity crisis are threatening to upend markets. It garnered quite a few comments highlighting a range of opinions about where artificial intelligence (AI) is headed and where it might be taking humanity.

The “AI Revolution” is being sold to us as either a sleek, inevitable future of effortless productivity or one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse bringing destruction to humanity, first by laying waste to the workforce. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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If you’ve been watching the news lately, you’ve seen the script: The Middle East is a tinderbox, the Strait of Hormuz is a “no-go” zone, and $120 oil is an inevitability according to JP Morgan.

But if you look at the facts and the data, the story falls apart.

Despite the headlines, oil is struggling to hold its gains. Why? Because the “New World Order” of energy isn’t being built in Tehran or Riyadh. It’s being built in North and South Americas and the “war” we’re watching looks more like a managed liquidation of the old guard than a global catastrophe. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary.

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I’ve been spending some time today looking through Terry Moran’s latest piece on President Trump’s approach to the escalating conflict in Iran. Moran’s take – that the President is essentially “winging it” – is a sobering read for any disciplined investor.

According to Moran, when you look at the transcripts from the President’s recent flurry of interviews with the New York Times, ABC News, The Atlantic, Fox News, and MS Now, you don’t see a cohesive strategy. You see a series of contradictory “exits.” One minute it’s a popular uprising, the next it’s a negotiated settlement, and the next it’s “we’ll see what happens.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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If you’ve spent any time on social media lately, you’ve seen them: sleek, metallic bipeds performing backflips in China, dancing to Motown, or gingerly stacking the dishwasher or placing a singular box on a shelf. The robotics hype cycle suggests that in four years’ time (2030), a robot will be folding your laundry and helping your nanna out of bed.

Despite billions of dollars invested, however, they remain science experiments confronting daunting technical challenges. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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April 9, last year, Donald Trump postponed his Liberation Day tariffs, fuelling a stock market rally led by artificial intelligence (AI) optimism. That optimism turned to fear this year as joy towards AI’s productivity enhancements morphed into panic about how many businesses it would destroy.

That panic reached an even higher level of urgency last week, when James van Geelen, a thematic investor and former entrepreneur who founded a healthcare company before moving into investment research on Substack, hypothesised that AI would lay waste to the entire global consumer economy, leaving generations of white-collar workers redundant. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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While investors look to the next Nvidia earnings call or the latest OpenELM (Open-source Efficient Language Models) release to predict the future of artificial intelligence (AI), Michael Burry – made famous for making billions shorting markets ahead of 2008 subprime crisis – recently turned to an article entitled Thought without Language, The Narrative of a Deaf-Mute, His First Thoughts and Experiences, in the June 19, 1880, edition of the New York Times.

“The case study is of a teacher at the Columbia Institute for the Instruction of the Deaf and Dumb. This particular teacher, Melville Ballard, is also a deaf mute and a graduate of the National Deaf Mute College.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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The HY26 results for Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (ASX:DMP) mark a “reset” phase for the company, as it moves away from a decades-long reliance on deep discounting and volume growth toward a more sustainable, value-driven model.

While this transition will take time, the underlying focus on franchisee health and cost discipline is laying the groundwork for a leaner, more resilient business, perhaps explaining the nine per cent share price bounce at the time of writing (26 February 2026), following an 11 per cent drop the day before on the day of the result’s release. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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