Market commentary

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the latest ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Survey, which shows confidence is gradually recovering after falling to its lowest level in 53 years, while remaining fragile amid high household debt, rising rents and ongoing cost-of-living pressures. We also discussed the successful ASX debut of FDC Consolidated, highlighting its strong growth, specialist construction and fit-out business, attractive forecast yield and why its listing may signal renewed investor appetite for high-quality IPOs.

Listen from 1:46:00 here: ABC Statewide Drive  continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the ASX debut of FDC Consolidated (ASX), outlining why I believe the construction and fit-out business presents a compelling investment opportunity. I highlighted its 36-year track record, strong insider ownership, large work in progress, repeat client base and attractive forecast yield, while noting that quality businesses can still attract investor demand despite a subdued Initial Public Offering (IPO) market. We also discussed Australia’s fragile consumer confidence, with high household debt, rising rents and ongoing cost-of-living pressures continuing to weigh on sentiment, even as confidence gradually recovers from its 53-year low.

Watch here: FDC’s ASX debut – a builder with bite  continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, TV Appearances

If you’ve been following our blogs and Montgomery Minutes about noted short seller Michael Burry, you’ll know he’s been making headlines this year for shorting the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Late last week, he reported he has again increased those short bets.

If you haven’t been following our posts on the subject, Michael Burry is the former chief of the now-closed hedge fund manager Scion Asset Management and was immortalised by Michael Lewis in his 2010 book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, which reported on Burry’s large asymmetric bets against the 2008 U.S. housing bubble. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications

Consumer confidence appears to be slowly improving after hitting its lowest level in 53 years in April 2026. While the recent uptrend is encouraging, confidence remains fragile, with household debt, cost-of-living pressures and recent interest rate increases still weighing heavily on consumers. The question now is whether this rebound marks the beginning of a genuine recovery, or simply a modest lift from extremely depressed levels. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular

In my latest article for The Australian, I examine how investor attention has been almost completely hijacked by artificial intelligence (AI), leaving gold largely overlooked despite many of the conditions that have historically supported it. In theory, an era of mounting sovereign debt, structural inflation and geopolitical uncertainty should favour gold. If today’s AI enthusiasm eventually gives way to a market correction, investors may find themselves giving gold a second look… 

Download the article here: Don’t write off gold’s polish – it could save you from an AI crash continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Value.able.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Value.able

This week I am back with Over The Money Fence with Nicola Dale and Di Edwards.

This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. In this episode, we go through the biggest bombshells from this year’s budget and what the practical implications are for you and your money. I explain why the changes to the budget don’t actually benefit young Australians, and therefore positioning it in this way is simply untrue. 

We talk about the hype around SpaceX being publicly listed, overtaking Amazon in market value, and I share my thoughts on whether the hype is real or if this company has been overvalued. 

We also discuss private credit funds and why they can be a good investment option for people that want good returns without the volatility of the share market.

I loved having this conversation with Nicola and Di in the studio, helping to make them and our listeners feel more calm and confident about their financial decisions. We hope you enjoy this episode as much as we did. 

Tune into past episodes of Over the Money Fence here. 

For further information, please contact David Buckland, Chief Executive Officer or Rhodri Taylor, Account Manager on (02) 8046 5000 or investor@montinvest.com. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel

The latest property data confirm that Australian national aggregate home prices declined by 0.3 per cent to 0.4 per cent in June 2026 – marking the third consecutive month of declines and pushing values roughly 0.9 per cent below their autumn peak.

The downturn is being felt most acutely by the major capital cities; over the June quarter, Sydney and Melbourne slumped by 2.9 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively, while Adelaide and Brisbane have completely flattened out.

And it’s not just prices plunging. The price correction is mirrored by a dramatic collapse in auction clearance rates, which plummeted to a six-year low in late June, hovering below the 50 per cent threshold at a weighted national average of roughly 47 per cent to 48 per cent –levels not seen since the initial economic shocks of the pandemic in April 2020. Labor’s impact on property is as significant as a global pandemic. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Property.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Property

As we begin Fiscal 2027, it is worth taking a step back to reflect on the major themes that shaped global markets over the past year. I explore the key developments across equities, bonds, interest rates, commodities and currencies, and consider what they may mean for investors going forward.

From Magnificent Seven to Memory Seven

In the three calendar years 2023-2025, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), rose by an average 333 per cent, turning $1.00 into $4.33.

That strong upward trajectory came to an end in the six months to June 2026, with an average decline of 2 per cent. With Microsoft (-23 per cent),Meta (-15 per cent) and Tesla (-6 per cent) leading the fall.

The baton has been passed to the “Memory” sector with an average 419 per cent capital appreciation across seven companies in six months to June 2026 being reported, namely: SanDisk (+858 per cent), Kioxia (+759 per cent), Micron Technology (+304 per cent), SK Hynix (+305 per cent), Intel (+278 per cent), Marvell Technology (+251 per cent) and Samsung (+177 per cent). continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Property.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Property

I recently read the musings on Substack of a British citizen who is watching “the country I was born in dissolve into a managed, bureaucratic, state-dependent puddle of its former self.” They say, “Britain is not failing. Britain has failed,” and they’ve assembled a comprehensive solution. I wonder to what extent their economic reforms should be applied to Australia. Do you think any of it makes sense for us? Are we failing as a nation? Do these ideas represent solutions? Some ideas would have labels attached to them, such as ‘regressive’ and ‘protectionist’, but forget the labels. You have to look at the whole, not the individual measures, which, of course, is how we got to the mess we are in. Perhaps we need a telescope not a microscope. Would it be better than what we have? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Market commentary

In this video insight, I explain why I believe investors should look beyond the strong earnings and seemingly reasonable valuations driving enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI). I examine questions surrounding optimistic market assumptions, insider selling incentives, the economics of AI, rising debt levels, weakening cash flows, and whether reported earnings are overstating the sector’s underlying profitability. I also argue that low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios do not necessarily protect markets from significant corrections and suggest the real bubble may lie in AI earnings expectations rather than share prices. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Video Insights.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Video Insights