Market commentary
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How alarmed should we be about rising levels of debt?
David Buckland
April 13, 2018
According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt hit US$237 trillion in the December 2017 Quarter, over 310 per cent of GDP of US$76 trillion. Global debt levels are at record highs in dollar terms and in relation to GDP. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary
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Jeremy Grantham says beware the market ‘melt-up’
Roger Montgomery
April 11, 2018
Alas, there’s no magic signal to tell us when this market could savagely correct. The latest note of caution comes from famed US investor, Jeremy Grantham. He believes we are seeing a ‘melt-up’ in the stock market – the final stages of a great bubble near to bursting. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Market commentary
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A China Trade War?
George Hadjia
April 6, 2018
With the risk of a trade war between the U.S. and China, volatility is creeping back into markets. On Wednesday, after China announced retaliatory tariffs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2 per cent in the opening minutes, only to end the session up around 1 per cent, presumably on the hope that a compromise will ultimately be reached. continue…
by George Hadjia Posted in Global markets, Market commentary
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It’s not all about the volatility!
Christopher Demasi
April 5, 2018
The first quarter of this calendar year has seen some wild moves in equity markets, especially when compared to the quiet calm of the share market in 2017. While value investors welcome share price gyrations, volatility isn’t all that matters for stock pickers. Dispersion and correlation are just as important but remain less co-operative. continue…
by Christopher Demasi Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary
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Investors beware: the warning light has begun to flash amber
Roger Montgomery
April 3, 2018
Warren Buffett recently observed that markets can quickly turn from green to red, without pausing at yellow. It was a veiled warning that when valuations are at extremes – as they are today – it doesn’t take much to trigger something serious. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary
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What to Watch
Roger Montgomery
March 23, 2018
We have often written about the boom in non-income producing assets – such as collectibles – and the associated world record prices, as being a sign of the very late stages of a credit cycle. Eventually, the boom will unwind – it always does – and one consistent signal has usually been investors pulling back from one asset class even while other asset classes continue to party. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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Australia’s foreign debt problem
Daniel Wu
March 15, 2018
Last month, MacroBusiness published an article with several interesting charts showing the level of Australia’s net foreign debt – debt owed by individuals, households, corporates and the government to creditors outside of Australia. At almost $1 trillion, Australia’s net foreign debt is close to 60 per cent of GDP and renders us extremely susceptible to rising global interest rates. continue…
by Daniel Wu Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary
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Dividends. What’s all the fuss?
Roger Montgomery
March 15, 2018
In the last few days Opposition Labor Leader Bill Shorten has proposed a radical transformation of dividend imputation. Putting aside his mistaken belief that his voters are “Aussie Battlers”- when in fact they are hard-working small business owners and contractors, many of whom receive franked dividends from their business endeavors – it’s worth looking at what all the fuss is about… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary
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Which industries are the most valuable today?
Andrew Macken
March 8, 2018
Readers will know that we buy the publicly traded stocks of individual global businesses when we identify: (i) a high degree of business quality; and (ii) substantial evidence that the business is being underpriced by the market. continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Roger Montgomery
March 5, 2018
The market ructions in early February were a genuine ‘shot-across-the-bows’ – a warning to investors about the longevity of easy credit, soaring asset prices and ultra-low volatility. That’s why, with markets potentially on the verge of a big reversal, we think it’s prudent to hold more cash. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary
