Market commentary

Jeremy Grantham is considered one of the giants of the investment world. After his start as an economist for Royal Dutch Shell, he earned his MBA from Harvard before co-founding his first asset management firm and helping pioneer commercial indexing strategies in the early 1970s. He subsequently co-founded Grantham, Mayo, & Otterloo (GMO) in Boston, growing it into a global powerhouse managing over US$100 billion. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I have spent the better part of the last 18 months warning investors the pattern of past returns from investing in new technology – what we refer to as General Purpose Technologies (GPT) – are likely to apply to the latest GPT- artificial intelligence (AI).

Quite simply, there’s a point in every technology investment boom when the technology stops being the most important question, and the money takes over. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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BCA Research (BCA), a global investment research firm, recently released its August 2026 market update, in which the authors argue against becoming defensive too early.

According to BCA, the current bull market contains many of the necessary ingredients for a future bust – geopolitical risk, an extraordinary artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure boom, and a looming wave of very large initial public offerings (IPOs) – but BCA believes the immediate evidence still favours investing in risk assets such as shares. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Codan (ASX:CDA)  is an Australian technology company that designs, develops, manufactures and markets communications and metal-detection equipment. Its two main operating segments are Communications and Metal Detection. Within those businesses sit brands and operations including DTC, Zetron and Minelab, giving Codan exposure to tactical and defence communications, unmanned systems, public-safety communications and gold detection. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to unpack the key lessons from the 2026 reporting season. We discussed why results were generally better than feared, the importance of revenue growth over cost cutting, the volatility across individual companies, and what the results could signal for the year ahead.

Tune in from 1:45:36 here: ABC Statewide Drive

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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With Woolworths and Coles reporting their 2026 results, it’s easy to make their billions in revenue and profits political targets. But does translating their nominal Financial Year 2026 (FY26) results into the terms of an Australian household’s economics reinforce the criticisms levelled at them?

To help answer this question, I ran a bit of a thought experiment. Follow on below to find out more.

Together, Woolworths and Coles Supermarkets generated about $95.3 billion of sales in FY26. Against Australia’s latest official population estimate of 27.8 million, that equates to roughly $3,430 per Australian per year, or $66 a week. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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On Ausbiz today, I discussed why the artificial intelligence (AI) boom may be reaching a crossroads. I looked at the enormous capital being deployed by hyperscalers, falling free cash flow and rising depreciation, and why growing competition and higher funding costs could make it increasingly difficult for these companies to generate sufficient returns on their AI investment.

Watch here: The AI spending spree investors should fear

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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The Financial Year 2026 (FY26) reporting season has concluded with corporate Australia in considerably better shape than many had feared.

Before getting too excited, however, it’s worth noting corporate Australia may not be in as good shape as the headline numbers suggest.

Aggregate profits rose by around 11.6 per cent.  Excluding mining and energy, however, the increase was just 5.3 per cent. Only 36 per cent of companies beat earnings expectations, below the historical average of about 40 per cent. Meanwhile, analysts have been cutting FY27 forecasts. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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Michael Burry, the Wall Street legend made famous for shorting the 2008 U.S. housing bubble in Michael Lewis’s book The Big Short, is ramping up his short thesis again, while taking direct aim at the “idiots” (his term) in what he calls “Trump’s market”. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Australia’s FY26 reporting season looked reasonably strong on the surface, with aggregate profits rising by around 11.6 per cent. But underneath the headline numbers, the recovery was much narrower – and investors were often more interested in what companies said about FY27 than the profits they had just reported.

I speak with Michael Thompson from Fear + Greed, about my 10 lessons from reporting season. We discuss why consumers are still spending but demanding value, expensive bank valuations, the limits of cost-cutting, opportunities in healthcare and why stock selection is becoming increasingly important. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Popular.

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