Market commentary

With the U.S. economic picture deteriorating, you might be wondering why the market is rallying. It’s simple if you remember that hope springs eternal.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s first chaotic days in office have been economically disruptive, thanks to a whirlwind 143 executive orders, a tornado of declared emergencies, and tariffs heralding a trade war – particularly the 135 per cent levy on Chinese imports. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The recent relief rally in the S&P 500 is welcome, but is it sustainable? The stock market’s vulnerability is a weakness in Trump’s arsenal against China, and it’s also a barometer of his popularity. Meanwhile, the market and the U.S. economy are heavily reliant on consumer spending, with personal consumption expenditures accounting for approximately 70 per cent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The global economy faces a complex landscape as trade tensions between the United States and China persist, threatening economic stability. This week, Ric Deverell, the highly regarded Chief Economist at Macquarie, shared insights on the potential for a U.S. recession, the resilience of China’s economy, and the ripple effects on global markets, including Australia and Europe. Our interpretation of his comments follows, and where data is independently available, we have provided that data along with sources. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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For years I have abided by the idea that gold is useless. As Charles Munger noted; if you buy an ounce of gold today, at the end of eternity, you will still own an ounce of gold. With no industrial use and producing no income, Munger’s partner, Warren Buffett, noted gold is only good for doing two things: ‘looking and fondling’. They are right in the sense that, without any ability to compound or any commercial value, buying gold is a bet that others will subsequently buy gold at a higher price. In that sense, buying gold is speculation rather than investing.

I remain convinced, buying gold is, and will always be, a bet on fear. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Last night, I appeared on ABC News to discuss Westpac’s (ASX:WBC) half-year financial results, where CEO Anthony Miller reported disappointing numbers. A key concern was the bank’s net interest margins (gross profit margin made on their lending activities), which came in one basis point below expectations. Miller attributed this to intense competition in business and institutional lending, as well as deposit-taking. Lower lending volumes in New Zealand also contributed to the weaker results. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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Australian investors, engrossed in the 2025 Federal Election, may have missed a seismic shift in the global financial landscape: Warren Buffett, the legendary investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, announced his retirement at the age of 94. On Saturday, during the company’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, Buffett revealed he would step down as CEO and chairman by the end of the year, handing the reins to Vice Chairman Greg Abel. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Labor’s resounding victory at the weekend’s Federal Election, securing a second term with a strengthened parliamentary majority, defied predictions of a close contest, possibly reflects the idealism of a new generation of voters, and grants Labor a mandate to advance a socialist policy agenda.

Victoria’s fiscal challenges however are the result of a long-term Labor government running a socialist agenda that has now run out of other people’s money. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Market commentary.

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A great deal has already been written about President Trump’s tariff policies, which have ignited a fierce debate among global investors and reshaped the landscape of international trade and economic strategy.

If every nation played fair, laid down their weapons, worked in harmony, peace and unity for a global common good, there would be no need for tariffs. But of course, such a world doesn’t exist on this side of Armageddon. In a world shaped by competition, dishonesty and insecurity, Trump sees tariffs as a way of resetting the compass. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Australia’s aggressive pursuit of renewable energy, championed by the Teal independents and the Labor government, is sold as a path to cheaper electricity and a cleaner future. The promise is seductive: wind and solar will slash power bills while saving the planet.

Yet, recent events in Europe – most notably Spain’s massive blackout and Germany’s ongoing grid struggles – expose this narrative as dangerously naive. Forcing intermittent renewable energy onto aging grids without adequate investment in stability measures is a recipe for chaos, and this weekend, I suspect, Australia will vote to barrel down the same path. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary.

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In the days following Trump’s tariff announcement, the S&P 500 plunged 10 per cent in just two days, 10-year treasury yields swung wildly, and gold, after touching a peak, stumbled. Add to this the backdrop of escalating global trade tensions – think U.S.-China tariffs – and it’s no surprise that investors are on edge. Meanwhile, consumers are wrestling with their own worries about inflation, jobs, and the economy’s trajectory. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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