Market commentary

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss what rising oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East could mean for markets. We looked at historical data showing that past oil-price peaks have often been followed by weaker share markets, and also explored the growing excitement around SpaceX, including the opportunities and risks for investors considering investing in the company.

Tune in from 1:46:33 here: ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio

Inflation seems to be the topic du joúr. Perhaps surprisingly, however, is the variety of opinions, even on the same day.

Economists, strategists and analysts don’t seem to be able to agree on anything regarding inflation (except for the current number), even on the same day (in this case, today the 28th of May 2026) – even when presented with the same data.  

Here is just a small selection of comments about inflation that arrived in my inbox this morning, and as you will see, facts are open to interpretation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss why global equity markets may be closer to a peak than many investors expect. We explored the historical link between oil-price spikes and weaker share markets, why even strong artificial intelligence (AI) –driven earnings growth may not protect valuations in a higher-rate environment, and how the excitement surrounding SpaceX is pushing many listed “proxy” space stocks into hyper-exponential territory untethered from fundamentals.

You can watch via Ausbiz here: Global equities may be closer to a peak than many investors expect

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the growing debate around whether AI stocks are in a bubble by revisiting a strikingly familiar research note published during the DotCom era in 1999. At the time, investors were told there were “good reasons to pay through the nose” for leading technology stocks because their growth and disruptive potential made “this time different.” Drawing on my own experience working through the DotCom bubble, I reflect on how speculative excess can continue far longer than expected before eventually unwinding, often with devastating consequences for investors. While today’s artificial intelligence (AI) leaders may have strong fundamentals, history reminds us that every bubble comes with a compelling narrative that sounds convincing in the moment. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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Australia and the United States (U.S.) currently have one thing in common. 

Consumer confidence is in a world of pain. 

In the U.S., the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded since the University of Michigan began tracking the data in 1952.

The Index, see Graph 1. and Table 1. below, hit 44.8 in May 2026, as Americans fear inflation, rising fuel costs, economic instability associated with the Iran War and the worry artificial intelligence (AI) will take white collar jobs.

When I look at the U.S. inflation rate – which was 3.8 per cent for the year to April 2026 – and the U.S. Federal Funds Rate at 3.75 per cent, I again point out a significant anomaly. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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While it may not inform your investing decisions, it’s undeniably enjoyable to look at what bulls were saying during a previous bubble and comparing those comments to what is being said today.

In this post, I compare the statements from the latest post of stock market bull Ed Yardeni, and the statements made in the April 1999 Merrill Lynch report entitled ‘e-Commerce: Virtually Here’.  

Published on 8 April, 1999, the section beginning on Page 13 and titled The Epicenter, was authored by Henry Blodget. According to The Guardian, “As the dotcom bubble was rapidly expanding in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Blodget was arguably the world’s most famous financial analyst, named Institutional Investor’s “all-star” analyst three years running and taking home a salary of US$12m from Merrill Lynch.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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On December 11, 1974, influential Austrian-born British economist and philosopher, Friedrich von Hayek, best known as a champion of free-market capitalism and classical liberalism, and a fierce critic of socialism and state intervention, delivered “The Pretence of Knowledge” as his Nobel Memorial Lecture. It was later published as an essay and remains one of his most famous critiques of central planning and hubris in economics. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Four consecutive years of high double-digit returns in the stock market is a rare occurrence.  Indeed, it’s happened once in 100 years. If this year ended on a high, it would be the second time investors enjoyed four consecutive high-returning years. 

A growing number of reputable investors, however, are suggesting that the outcome is unlikely and they’re citing the relentless rise of sovereign bond yields.

According to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, government bond yields across the Group of Seven (G7) nations have surged to their highest levels since 2004. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Scott Galloway is an American academic, author, podcast host, and serial entrepreneur. He’s best known as a Clinical Professor of Marketing at the New York University Stern School of Business and a prominent commentator on big tech, modern economics, and social trends.

Galloway has recently and publicly joined the ranks of stock market bears, predicting we’re on the precipice of a US$10 trillion wipeout while immediately noting he, “gets this wrong all the time [so] this is not financial advice.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Before I begin; I use the term ‘workers’ in this article. It’s not intended to be disparaging. It’s a reference to a label that the Labor Government gives their core constituency. It’s the voting base Labor frequently refers to and says they support.

The 2026 Federal budget may offer an insight into Labor’s logic:

‘Tax the asset to fund their so-called ‘worker’, so that worker can buy an asset.’

The problem?

They haven’t solved a generational divide; I believe they’ve just designed a wealth-recycling machine where the Government takes a service fee at every turn.

If we look a bit closer, we find a paradox. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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