Market commentary
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Boosting your portfolio’s cash component in a high inflation environment
David Buckland
December 1, 2023
On the day of the Melbourne Cup, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced an increase of the official cash rate to 4.35 per cent. Interestingly, the term deposit rates offered by my friendly bank remained the same as the previous week. This suggested an unwillingness of the bank to increase interest rates on deposits, despite the 13th RBA official cash rate hike in the past 18 months. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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Ausbiz – A deflationary surprise?
Roger Montgomery
December 1, 2023
In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I aimed to provide insights into prevailing economic trends, particularly focusing on the U.S. economy. It’s evident that the market sentiment has transitioned from recession concerns to the possibility of enduring inflation, a shift I believe might stem from potentially overreaching actions by the Federal Reserve to curb economic momentum. Additionally, I discussed the likelihood of the Australian economy already being in a recession and the potential impact on both the broader equity market and small-cap stocks in general. You can watch the full interview here. Ausbiz – A deflationary surprise?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
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Temple & Webster’s share price soars following its AGM update
Roger Montgomery
November 30, 2023
As we monitor the behavior of the Australian consumer, it’s crucial to acknowledge that consumption constitutes approximately 50 per cent of Australia’s GDP, significantly influencing decisions related to interest rates. The robust trading update presented during the annual general meeting (AGM) by Temple & Webster Group (ASX: TPW), an online retailer specialising in furniture and homewares, prompts thoughtful consideration. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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Should we expect continued softness in retail sales?
Roger Montgomery
November 29, 2023
Unsurprisingly, consumer spending dominates all other categories and contributors to economic growth in a consumption-based economy such as Australia’s. Australia’s private consumption accounted for 49.8 per cent of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in the June 2023 quarter. Australia’s private consumption contribution to the Nominal GDP ratio, which is updated quarterly, from Sep 1959 to Jun 2023, averaged a 56.2 per cent share. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Market commentary.
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The RBA acknowledges boomers win and mortgagees lose
Roger Montgomery
November 29, 2023
Central banks across the globe find themselves in a challenging predicament, and our own Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces a particularly delicate situation. In Australia, an intricate interplay of demographics and home ownership dynamics creates a paradox where those who bear the brunt of rising interest rates are not the ones fuelling the inflationary fire through their spending habits. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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Is there a New South Wales housing solution on the way?
Roger Montgomery
November 27, 2023
In something of a ground-breaking move to address the housing affordability crisis in New South Wales, the government has unveiled a plan to expedite the construction of homes by fast-tracking buildings that choose pre-approved designs. This initiative aims to ease the burden on prospective buyers and renters who have long struggled to find affordable housing options. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Property.
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Ausbiz – Winners are grinners: how boomers are benefiting from inflation
Roger Montgomery
November 24, 2023
In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I aimed to spotlight the differential impact of rising interest rates on different age groups in Australia. Specifically, I emphasized how baby boomers tend to thrive in such conditions, while the younger generation, particularly those managing mortgages, face a contrasting scenario. Additionally, I delved into the intricate dynamics of domestic inflation and discussed socio-economic consequences arising from intergenerational disparities. Watch the full interview here. Ausbiz – Winners are grinners: how boomers are benefiting from inflation
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.
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Is forecasting a waste of time?
Roger Montgomery
November 24, 2023
I have had my fair share of bad calls. After more than three decades of investing, it’s safe for me to predict that there is next to no advantage in making predictions. What does make sense is to invest in great businesses and great managers and allow enough time to pass to allow the process of wealth creation within these businesses to occur. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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ABC Statewide Drive – Navigating the financial landscape
Roger Montgomery
November 23, 2023
This week in my interview with Paul Turton on ABC’s Statewide Drive, we took a deep dive into the dynamic forces shaping the financial markets, homing in on Gary Shilling’s insights into the future of U.S. stocks. We discussed the S&P 500, dissecting the key growth engines—what I like to call the “magnificent seven” (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Tesla and Nvidia) —and explored the potential market repercussions if these seven companies were to be extracted from the index. To cap it off, we unravelled the intricacies of interest rates, placing special emphasis on the concept of “neutral interest rates” and why they stand as a crucial yardstick in deciphering our prevailing monetary policy. You can hear my thoughts from the 31-minute mark here. ABC Statewide Drive – Navigating the financial landscape
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.
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Mezzanine finance revealing another weak spot in the U.S. economy.
Roger Montgomery
November 21, 2023
After the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), U.S. regulators imposed stricter regulations on larger banks. Limiting their riskier lending for commercial real estate and development. Their more conservative lending practices meant property owners turned to smaller banks or sought second loans from non-bank lenders to bridge their financing gaps, often on top of existing bank mortgages. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.
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