Market commentary
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Is the current rally premature?
Roger Montgomery
August 17, 2022
I believe there are good arguments the current rally is premature and might reverse. Keep in mind I am still long and heavily invested in equities. I just think the current rally has got ahead of itself. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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What to expect from markets in the week ahead
Roger Montgomery
August 8, 2022
Domestic results season is about to ramp up and investors like us will be focusing, in particular, on the outlook statements. You might recall there was a lot of optimism at the time of the half yearly results in February. Back then, a combination of reopening, rebuilding and expectations of a continuation of accommodative monetary policy was met abruptly, in late February, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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Growth stocks could rebound if inflation turns out to be “transitory” after all
Roger Montgomery
August 3, 2022
Since bravely declaring that inflation would be “transitory” the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has been ridiculed for being so wrong. After all, we’ve since seen inflation exceed initial estimates and be more persistent than anticipated. But now it seems inflation could be transitory after all. And that augers well for quality growth stocks. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary
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Could a credit crunch be more important than a recession?
Roger Montgomery
July 20, 2022
I have just penned my next column for The Australian Wealth section this weekend. In the article I explain how different definitions of recession are common and yet largely irrelevant for today’s equity investor. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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Get set for weaker employment data
Stuart Jackson
July 19, 2022
Australia is currently enjoying the most buoyant labour market conditions since the 1970s. But how long can the low unemployment rate persist? As the saying goes, if something can’t go on forever, sooner or later it must stop. And with consumer and business sentiment both waning, surely it is just a matter of time. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Economics, Market commentary
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English-speaking Central Banks are slowly getting it
David Buckland
July 15, 2022
Wednesday was a big day for the English-speaking Central Banks. The Bank of New Zealand, the first of the Central Banks to realise inflation was becoming a significant issue, commenced tightening their monetary policy from 0.25 per cent on 6 October 2021. Wednesday was their sixth increase to 2.5 per cent, and it will be interesting to see the degree this crunches the New Zealand economy over the next few months.
continue…by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary
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Is it time to hit the ‘buy’ button?
Roger Montgomery
July 8, 2022
If there’s one investing axiom to hang your hat on, it’s this: the lower the price you pay, the better your returns over the longer term. With the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of many high quality businesses compressing, I therefore think it’s time for long-term investors to buy while so many others are fearful. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary
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How much would higher immigration rates help equity markets?
Roger Montgomery
July 5, 2022
In this week’s video insight Roger discusses how the fate of equity markets now hinges materially, but not solely, on the employment picture and the how central banks navigate the very serious choice they have to make between inflation or recession. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Video Insights
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Farewell fiscal 2022, hello fiscal 2023
David Buckland
July 4, 2022
Many commentators point to the six months to June 2022 as being one of the worst June half-year periods for the performance of both the share market and the bond market for several decades. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary
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When bad news is good news
David Buckland
June 28, 2022
After the very sharp sell-off in the share market, the recent rally is indicative of a mood where bad news is good news. Specifically, the recognised slowdown in the English-speaking economies likely means the various Central Banks will not be required to increase official cash rates by the amount that most forecasters had assumed. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary
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