Market commentary
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Why it might be time to rebalance your portfolio
Roger Montgomery
August 14, 2020
Government stimulus measures and lockdowns have led to behavioural changes that have benefited some businesses while hampering others. But, as these stimulus measures taper, and restrictions ease, we’re likely to see a lot of spending habits return to ‘normal’. And that could have a big impact on many businesses, and their share prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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The simple realities of governing in a pandemic
Andrew Macken
August 4, 2020
Five months into the pandemic and one thing has become clear: eradication of COVID-19 is not a viable option for most nations. Instead, most are pursuing various forms of containment strategies aimed at buying time until widespread vaccinations can enable the return of more normal times. continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Global markets, Market commentary
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Why it’s time to focus on quality businesses
Roger Montgomery
August 3, 2020
In 1976, US economist, Herbert Stein, famously stated that “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” His observation could well be applied to the ballooning value of many technology companies, some of which have never made a profit, and possibly never will. Which is why this might be a good time to look at high quality businesses that have been left behind by the rally. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary
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Consumption data signal trouble ahead for many businesses
Stuart Jackson
July 29, 2020
JobKeeper has been incredibly important in supporting consumer spending in Australia. But recent data show that spending could be plateauing – even before JobKeeper is wound back. This could signal even worse times ahead for many businesses. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Consumer discretionary, Market commentary
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Worsening COVID-19 crisis casts a cloud over this market rally
Roger Montgomery
July 22, 2020
It’s little wonder many long-time investors don’t trust the ongoing rally in world share markets. With global COVID-19 cases on the rise, no vaccine in sight, and economic conditions quite precarious, it’s hard not to think a correction is just around the corner. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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What next for our slow-moving economic train wreck?
Roger Montgomery
July 20, 2020
Government support programs have helped to soften – and postpone – the financial blows from the disruptions caused by COVID-19. In so doing, they’ve also bolstered share markets. But, I doubt this can go on forever; looking ahead, we could experience an extended period of lower equity market returns. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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Fed lifts foot off the gas, but is it about to tap the afterburner?
Amit Nath
July 17, 2020
The US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has contracted slightly in recent weeks after the sharp inflection higher in March and April as COVID-19 emergency measures, particularly central bank liquidity swaps roll off. continue…
by Amit Nath Posted in Market commentary
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Has the market run too hard?
Roger Montgomery
July 16, 2020
Who would have thought that, just four months after the market’s March nadir, many stocks would not only have recovered but be at new all-time highs? Or that businesses like Afterpay, which has still to turn a profit, would be trading at such lofty prices? The big question is: how long can this unbridled enthusiasm continue? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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A game of credibility
Andrew Macken
July 9, 2020
Australia has fared relatively well through the COVID-19 pandemic. That said, we have still faced enormous economic and financial disruption domestically. In times of crisis, the RBA naturally steps in stimulate monetary conditions and facilitate the orderly operations of financial markets. continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Market commentary
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Will today’s roosters be tomorrow’s feather dusters?
Roger Montgomery
July 6, 2020
I’m astounded by the stories of immediate success I’ve been hearing from those who have rarely, if ever, directly invested in the stock market. This success is often the result of mindless speculation in businesses whose share prices are out of step with future cash flows – and brings to mind Warren Buffet’s quip that “a pin lies in wait for every bubble.” continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary
