Market commentary
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Debt levels are indeed hurting
Andreas Lundberg
October 17, 2018
Data that forms an investment thesis is not always presented in the most coherent and easy to digest manner. It is indeed often the case that once data has been distilled into a form that is easy to draw conclusions from, it is often too late to act on as the trend has already become obvious. It is therefore often even more interesting to look at more circumstantial data that can give an early indication of the future direction of the more substantiated data. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary
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U.S./China Relationship Turns Icy
George Hadjia
October 15, 2018
As the trade war between the U.S. and China intensifies, there seems to be no letting up of the barbs being exchanged between the two sides. It is worth examining how the U.S./China relationship is changing, and what the implications of this are for investing in global equities. continue…
by George Hadjia Posted in Global markets, Market commentary
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What is “Cash” and Why it Matters – Narrow Road Capital
Roger Montgomery
October 2, 2018
With punitive rates, and even negative in some jurisdictions, cash has become a liability for many in recent years. But cash is actually most valuable when nobody else has any and given our belief that the value of cash is increasing, Jonathan Rochford from Narrow Road Capital provides a note that is incredibly timely. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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Checking in on Cash and Inflation
Amit Nath
September 28, 2018
After a seemingly long hiatus, inflation is finally edging up in the United States, driven by a number of factors including tax cuts, commodities, shipping and fuel prices. We think it may be interesting to put the most recent headline CPI print of 2.7 per cent year-over-year into context. continue…
by Amit Nath Posted in Global markets, Market commentary
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Howard Marks takes the market’s Temperature
Roger Montgomery
September 27, 2018
Legendary Value investor, Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital has just released his latest memo to investors overnight. His observation that “overly generous capital markets ultimately lead to unwise financing, and thus to danger for participants” is worth noting with respect to Australia’s recent property boom… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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Where are all the truck drivers?
George Hadjia
September 20, 2018
“Truck drivers: the unsung heroes on the road” read the title of an article discussing the key role served by U.S. truck drivers. Despite the accolades, one thing remains for certain: driving trucks in the U.S. is a demanding job, with fewer and fewer people opting for this career. The resulting truck driver shortage in the U.S. has contributed to a sharp increase in freight rates, and has far reaching consequences across the U.S. economy. continue…
by George Hadjia Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary
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Over a decade, equities will always be up, right?
Christopher Demasi
September 19, 2018
It’s no secret that we are experiencing the longest bull market run in equities on record. Share market returns from the depths of the financial crisis to today are astounding. Yet many investors, allocators and institutions continue to accept that over long periods equities will always deliver, on average, strong performance. So, could equity returns ever produce lacklustre results over a long period? Not a year or two or five, but what about over a decade? continue…
by Christopher Demasi Posted in Market commentary
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How are we positioned against equity market rotation?
Andrew Macken
September 18, 2018
In this week’s video insight Andrew discusses President Trump’s escalating trade war and the US monetary policies. These two categories include drivers that have led to the equity market rotation we are currently observing.
by Andrew Macken Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights
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Why consumer-oriented stocks could soon struggle
Andreas Lundberg
September 17, 2018
While the Federal government continues to crow about the strength of the Australian economy, a worrying trend is occurring that is getting less attention: Australian households are saving less. Sooner or later, this trend will reverse. And when it does, consumer-oriented businesses will feel the heat. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Consumer discretionary, Market commentary
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What Could Catalyse the Next Crisis?
Amit Nath
September 14, 2018
There are numerous threats to the global economy and financial system that constantly percolate beneath the surface. While many of them could create the environment for a disorderly unwind of risk assets, we consider a few of these visible threats and briefly discuss some implications in this article. continue…
by Amit Nath Posted in Market commentary
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