Market commentary

This week on ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed the recent sell-off in AI stocks and whether the AI bubble is beginning to burst. We explored how rising bond yields, growing debt burdens and uncertainty around profitability are putting pressure on the sector. While AI has the potential to transform industries, the current investment boom may face further challenges before more sustainable opportunities emerge.

Tune in here: ABC Statewide Drive 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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I can’t tell you how many times I have heard the expression, “Australian residential Property prices never fall”.  Admittedly these “experts” have enjoyed an enormous 40-odd year bull market. However, they don’t believe that asset prices can be cyclical, and they likely missed the 1993 London headline which read “One million homes in negative equity”.

As Australia’s unemployment rate hits 4.7 per cent, a five year high, and inflation reaches 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to August 2026, it appears a period of stagflation – slow or negative real economic growth per capita, higher unemployment and persistent inflation – will likely be with us for the foreseeable future. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Popular, Property.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the growing risks surrounding the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and whether the billions being invested in infrastructure can deliver sustainable returns. We explored the industry’s reliance on debt-funded hyperscalers and venture capital-backed startups, and how a slowdown in funding could trigger a domino effect across the sector. We also discussed the disappointing Firmus IPO, CoreWeave’s recent share price decline, and the risk of excess data centre capacity if demand fails to meet expectations.

Watch here: Too much Ai, too little return. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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If only to arm you with arguments you might not be apprised of, it’s worth repeating artificial intelligence (AI) critic and author, Ed Zitron’s most recent warnings about the AI bubble, starting with a reference to the potential insolvency of OpenAI and Anthropic: continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation

Daily stock market commentary is replete with warnings of storm clouds forming over global equity markets. But major indices are registering all-time highs with daily, boring monotony, and those dark clouds seem in no imminent danger of producing rain, let alone a storm.

So are the bearish experts wrong?

A healthy, resilient bull market is typically broad-based, with companies across diverse sectors participating in the upward momentum. What we have today is the precise opposite. According to a widely circulated Goldman Sachs report, equity market breadth has plummeted to levels unseen since the dot-com bubble. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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A growing chorus of people is asking how or when the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble will burst.

Tech critic and author Ed Zitron pointed out last week that even concerned investors love tossing around statements like “Anthropic has US$413 billion in non-cancellable compute contracts” or that “US$18 billion in Oracle data centre debt is trading at 84 cents on the dollar.” But he notes very few people actually pause to think about what those numbers mean in the real world. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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ASX (ASX:ASX) is a high-quality market infrastructure business with strong competitive advantages across listings, cash equities, derivatives, clearing and settlement and data services. Historically, these businesses generated attractive margins and relatively resilient earnings but the investment case deteriorated as years of underinvestment in technology became increasingly apparent. The most visible failure was the original CHESS (Clearing House Electronic Subregister System) replacement program, which was abandoned in 2022 after significant delays and write-offs, while subsequent operational incidents and regulatory scrutiny further damaged confidence in management and execution. The company also went through considerable leadership turnover with the most recent appointment being ASX’s third CEO in relatively quick succession. continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Stocks We Like.

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In my article for The Australian, I explore why global bond yields continue to rise while equity markets remain largely unfazed. From persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions to growing government debt and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure spending, several forces are keeping interest rates elevated. I also examine whether expectations of AI-driven earnings growth can continue to support share prices, or whether higher borrowing costs will eventually weigh on equity valuations.

Download the article here: High interest rates and bond yields threaten global sharemarket rally continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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In the past six years, French Government ten-year bond yield has jumped from negative 0.3 per cent to 4.9 per cent, the highest level in 24 years. Investors are starting to differentiate between each euro-denominated country with German and Dutch ten-year bonds yielding 3.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, Greek and Italian ten-year bonds yield 4.55 per cent and 4.65 per cent, respectively, indicating potential contagion as confidence appears to be in short supply. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Independent economic research and investment strategy firm Variant Perception (VP) has shared its latest market musings, and the phrase “generational equity top” got a run.

The equal-weighted Value Line Arithmetic Index is drawing down from its August high, while the Nasdaq 100 is rallying… continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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