Market commentary

Notwithstanding Trump’s concerted efforts to create disharmony, civil unrest and global tensions, there are three things that will determine broader equity market returns for investors. These are inflation, economic growth and liquidity. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

An article published by the Shanghai Metal Market on 7 June 2025, revealed that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, up 60,000 ounces month-on-month. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary

Why is the stock market rising amid global conflicts in 2025?

In 2025, the world is grappling with significant geopolitical uncertainty. Tensions between the U.S. and China have wavered, the tragic conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine persists. Yet, despite these challenges, most major global equity indices have posted gains year-to-date. continue…

by Dean Curnow Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary

Recently, I recorded a video discussing the U.S. bond market flashing red. That video, to our great surprise, went a little viral. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

I joined Kirsten Aiken on ABC News earlier this week to discuss the recent U.S.-China trade talks. While these discussions aimed to reinforce the trade truce established last month in Geneva, they primarily offered a framework without substantial new commitments, leaving investors largely unimpressed. The prevailing concern among investors, however, is the perceived gradual shift of the U.S. towards authoritarianism, which is creating significant unease in the markets.

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

As an investor witnessing more than three decades of booms and busts, I find it increasingly difficult to separate investing from politics, especially when political figures have a harmful, toxic, and deleterious impact on investment performance. I am frequently told by those who disagree to stay in my lane and steer clear of politics, but under Trump, the two subjects are intertwined. I believe it’s impossible to peer into the future – where investment returns are produced – and ignore Trump’s impact, and therefore, his intentions. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• 5 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

Trumps massive deficit spending plan coincides with an unprecedented refinancing burden that could drain market liquidity. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

The return of Donald Trump to the presidency has brought with it a series of actions and policies that systematically undermine the foundational principles of American democracy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• 11 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

Last month, the United States House of Representatives passed Donald Trump’s absurdly named “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a 1,038-page legislative juggernaut championed to deliver on campaign promises including “a hodgepodge of controversial tax breaks for the wealthy, spending reductions and increased work requirements for food aid and Medicaid programs and huge funding increases for President Trump’s mass migrant removal program…”, according to The Hill News. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

Most of the time, you can ignore monthly economic data – it rarely, if ever, changes trends in markets. But with Trump fiscal profligate ways, a huge global debt refinancing event coming in 2026/27 and threats to democracy itself, it probably now pays to keep a closer eye on how the U.S. economy is faring. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary