Market commentary
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Why the Australian Future Fund has turned bearish
Roger Montgomery
September 6, 2023
The Australian Future Fund, valued at $258 billion, is undergoing significant strategic shifts under the guidance of Chief Executive Raphael Arndt and Chair Peter Costello. These changes are driven by expectations of prolonged inflation, overvalued stocks, and the heightened risks stemming from China’s economic slowdown. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Aura Private Credit insights: monthly CPI indicator is easing
Brett Craig
September 4, 2023
The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is continuing to show signs of easing. The 12 months to July reported a 4.9 per cent increase, which is down from the June figure of 5.4 per cent. This is a significant improvement off the back of the 8.4 per cent peak in December 2022. This is the lowest inflation rate since February 2022. The most notable prices increases were in housing and food and beverages. The decline in the price of fuel offset the rise for the July period. continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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U.S. regional banks two-point-Oh!
Roger Montgomery
September 4, 2023
We appear to be witnessing a shift in the U.S. banking landscape and recent events suggest we should proceed with caution. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Aura Private Credit insights: Are the rising interest rates finally having their desired effect?
Brett Craig
September 1, 2023
The latest monetary policy decision made in August was to hold the cash rate at 4.10 per cent. With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting next week, many are wondering if the RBA has another rate hike up their sleeve. Whilst many believe we are nearing the top of the rate hiking cycle, understanding the current economic conditions will assist in determining the probability of an interest rate hike versus a hold on interest rates. continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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In support of the bulls
Roger Montgomery
August 31, 2023
We’ve recently shared several posts, and appeared in the odd media interview, explaining why equity investors might have cause to pause. After a significant rally in the U.S. S&P500, there are several reasons why we anticipate a sell-off in equities in the upcoming days and weeks. However, markets consist of both buyers and sellers. To provide a more balanced perspective, in this article we delve in the reasons behavioural finance experts believe the U.S. equity market rally might persist until the year’s end. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Wrapping up the 2023 financial year reporting season: A mix of resilience and uncertainty
Roger Montgomery
August 30, 2023
In this week’s video insight, Roger Montgomery delves into the recently concluded 2023 financial year reporting season which presented a mixed picture. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Private Credit outclassing the asset classes
Roger Montgomery
August 30, 2023
Every six months, Morningstar assembles its Annual Asset Class Returns “gameboard” (Figure1.). The matrix displays the performance of seven major asset classes over the last 20 financial years to 30 June 2023. While the compilation doesn’t offer much by way of predictive value, its usefulness is in its educational content. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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The great Australian shift: A new dawn for income investment
Roger Montgomery
August 29, 2023
Last week’s ‘Intergenerational Report 2023’ released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, underscores a pivotal shift: as Australia ages, the market emphasis will transition from capital growth to income. Sophisticated investors, take note. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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What do the latest consumer spending insights tell us?
Roger Montgomery
August 21, 2023
In July, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) published its inaugural monthly household spending insights (HSI) Index, replacing the superseded ‘intentions’ index. Based on online, Bpay, debit, and credit card transaction data, the insights are indeed comprehensive, coming from the bank’s seven million customers. Contrast that with a typical report or survey of a few thousand customers! This report, drawn from de-identified payments data, offers valuable insights into spending trends, and it has revealed a tightening of consumer belts with a decline in spending growth nationally to a modest 1.3 per cent in the year leading up to July. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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Could equities give back some of their 2023 gains?
Roger Montgomery
August 19, 2023
If the headline didn’t grab your attention, that’s probably because you thought it was about interest rates. In fact, it’s about the equity market itself. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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