Market commentary
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Tariff time bomb – could it remove one of the three legs of market support?
Roger Montgomery
June 25, 2025
Notwithstanding Trump’s concerted efforts to create disharmony, civil unrest and global tensions, there are three things that will determine broader equity market returns for investors. These are inflation, economic growth and liquidity. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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In gold they trust – China’s hedge against uncertainty
Roger Montgomery
June 24, 2025
An article published by the Shanghai Metal Market on 7 June 2025, revealed that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, up 60,000 ounces month-on-month. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.
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The world is in conflict but the stock market keeps going up – what am I missing?
Dean Curnow
June 23, 2025
Why is the stock market rising amid global conflicts in 2025?
In 2025, the world is grappling with significant geopolitical uncertainty. Tensions between the U.S. and China have wavered, the tragic conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine persists. Yet, despite these challenges, most major global equity indices have posted gains year-to-date. continue…
by Dean Curnow Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Bond market on alert: rising yields, weak demand and looming debt flood
Roger Montgomery
June 19, 2025
Recently, I recorded a video discussing the U.S. bond market flashing red. That video, to our great surprise, went a little viral. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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ABC Business News – U.S.-China trade talks and market insights
Roger Montgomery
June 16, 2025
I joined Kirsten Aiken on ABC News earlier this week to discuss the recent U.S.-China trade talks. While these discussions aimed to reinforce the trade truce established last month in Geneva, they primarily offered a framework without substantial new commitments, leaving investors largely unimpressed. The prevailing concern among investors, however, is the perceived gradual shift of the U.S. towards authoritarianism, which is creating significant unease in the markets.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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The U.S. slide into authoritarianism
Roger Montgomery
June 13, 2025
As an investor witnessing more than three decades of booms and busts, I find it increasingly difficult to separate investing from politics, especially when political figures have a harmful, toxic, and deleterious impact on investment performance. I am frequently told by those who disagree to stay in my lane and steer clear of politics, but under Trump, the two subjects are intertwined. I believe it’s impossible to peer into the future – where investment returns are produced – and ignore Trump’s impact, and therefore, his intentions. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” threatens equity markets as global debt wall looms
Roger Montgomery
June 13, 2025
Trumps massive deficit spending plan coincides with an unprecedented refinancing burden that could drain market liquidity. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Trump’s systematic assault on U.S. democracy
Roger Montgomery
June 11, 2025
The return of Donald Trump to the presidency has brought with it a series of actions and policies that systematically undermine the foundational principles of American democracy. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill
Roger Montgomery
June 10, 2025
Last month, the United States House of Representatives passed Donald Trump’s absurdly named “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a 1,038-page legislative juggernaut championed to deliver on campaign promises including “a hodgepodge of controversial tax breaks for the wealthy, spending reductions and increased work requirements for food aid and Medicaid programs and huge funding increases for President Trump’s mass migrant removal program…”, according to The Hill News. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Keep an eye on developments in the U.S. economy
Roger Montgomery
June 6, 2025
Most of the time, you can ignore monthly economic data – it rarely, if ever, changes trends in markets. But with Trump fiscal profligate ways, a huge global debt refinancing event coming in 2026/27 and threats to democracy itself, it probably now pays to keep a closer eye on how the U.S. economy is faring. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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