Market commentary
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Australia’s energy contradiction
David Buckland
August 11, 2026
The Energy Institute’s “Statistical Review of World Energy” for 2025 provides an interesting snapshot of how the world’s energy is supplied and, importantly, where Australia fits into the picture. The numbers reveal just how dependent we (and the rest of the world) are on oil, gas, and coal. But most interestingly, this report raises questions about Australia’s approach to nuclear energy, coal exports and decarbonisation. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
The Australian – Global markets face reckoning as triple threat fractures appear
Roger Montgomery
August 10, 2026
In my latest article for The Australian, I explore the growing risks facing global markets as cracks emerge across technology, fixed income and inflation. With artificial intelligence (AI) investment increasingly circular, government debt climbing and inflation remaining stubborn, investors may need to prepare for a more volatile and challenging market environment.
Download here: Global markets face reckoning as triple threat fractures appear continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Who really wins from the AI boom?
Roger Montgomery
August 6, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the next phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle and the growing divergence between the companies building AI infrastructure and the hyperscalers funding it. We explored the risks posed by mounting AI capital expenditure (capex), weakening cash flows, the emergence of lower-cost Chinese AI models and what could happen if hyperscalers begin slowing investment. We also discussed why investors may benefit from looking beyond momentum-driven technology stocks towards high-quality, value-oriented businesses and other defensive assets.
Watch the full episode on Ausbiz here: Who really wins from the AI boom? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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The 60/40 portfolio: Is it dead, or is it dying?
Roger Montgomery
August 5, 2026
For some time now, I have been writing about the fundamental structural shift occurring in global asset allocation, and specifically, the figurative death of the traditional 60/40 portfolio.
For many years, the typical approach to wealth management and balanced portfolios was to allocate 60 per cent to growth equities for potential capital gains and 40 per cent to public bonds to provide stability and income.
When a recession struck and equity markets ran into headwinds, central banks cut interest rates, driving bond prices higher and shielding portfolio returns by offsetting stock market losses. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Seeing red? Look at the bigger picture
Roger Montgomery
August 5, 2026
In this week’s Video Insight, I explain why market volatility is a normal part of investing. While market pullbacks can feel unsettling, history shows they’ve often been temporary and have regularly occurred even in years that finished with strong returns. The key is staying disciplined and keeping your focus on the long term. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
READ HERE -
MEDIA
ABC Newcastle Mornings – market concentration risks
Roger Montgomery
August 4, 2026
I joined Kylie Morris on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the recent increase in market volatility and the shift underway beneath the surface of equity markets. We explored how years of momentum-driven investing and record inflows into index funds have fuelled the outperformance of a handful of large technology stocks, and why that trend may now be reversing. We also discussed the next phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle, where investors are becoming more selective about which businesses are likely to benefit, as well as the sharp correction in South Korea’s technology sector as a reminder of the risks that can emerge when markets become concentrated.
Tune in from 33:30 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.
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A bullish investor’s reminder
Roger Montgomery
July 31, 2026
Every time the stock market stumbles a percentage point or two, headlines invariably scream the same ominous question: Is the big market crash finally here?
It’s easy to sympathise with investor nervousness, despite the S&P500 being less than three per cent from all-time highs. Tensions overseas are triggering spikes in energy prices as strategic reserves are depleted, inflation persists at rates well above central bank preferences, interest rates remain unpredictable, and tech valuations and AI-related spending seem perpetually stretched.
But look beneath the surface of recent market pullbacks, and a different picture emerges.
It helps to understand the mechanics of market volatility, which isn’t about predicting the exact day a dip will happen, but rather recognising the difference between run-of-the-mill turbulence and structural damage. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Right now, concentration is your portfolio’s biggest threat
Roger Montgomery
July 30, 2026
On the surface, markets appear remarkably resilient, so if you’ve felt a sense of calm looking at your portfolio performance lately, you aren’t alone.
But look beneath the surface and the structural fragility you’ll see in valuations, government debt, and global trade makes holding a narrow, concentrated equity portfolio (including any portfolio largely invested in index ETFs) one of the more dangerous bets an investor can make right now. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Summarising my current AI thesis – Part 2
Roger Montgomery
July 27, 2026
How to respond
Across my articles and media commentaries, I have emphasised that preparing for an artificial intelligence (AI) re-pricing is not about timing a top or shorting tech, but rather about protecting capital through discipline, factor balance, and liquidity.
There are five primary strategies to insulate an investment portfolio from an AI re-rating:
- Diversify away from equity index heavyweights
Broad, passive equity indices (such as the S&P 500 or Nasdaq) are historically concentrated. Passive flows into index funds mean a significant portion of an investor’s exposure is tied to six or seven AI-driven mega-caps.
Rebalance away from broad index funds that leave up to 60 per cent of equity risk tied to the AI trade. Investors might also consider locking in recent gains and diversifying equity exposure across unsung, non-AI themes. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Summarising my current AI thesis – Part 1
Roger Montgomery
July 27, 2026
Last week, Google reported its first ever quarter of negative cash flow, surprising analysts who thought Q1 2027 would be when pressure on cash flows could seriously emerge, and causing the share price to plunge more than seven per cent.
With the clear exception of Tesla, most of the Mag 7 once deserved high earnings multiples because they were asset-light businesses with competitive advantages that didn’t require money to be defended. The artificial intelligence (AI) race has quickly eroded those moats and their characterisation as asset-light, because, over the last two years, they have had to spend hundreds of billions building data centres to remain competitive. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
