Market commentary

Australia’s FY26 reporting season looked reasonably strong on the surface, with aggregate profits rising by around 11.6 per cent. But underneath the headline numbers, the recovery was much narrower – and investors were often more interested in what companies said about FY27 than the profits they had just reported.

I speak with Michael Thompson from Fear + Greed, about my 10 lessons from reporting season. We discuss why consumers are still spending but demanding value, expensive bank valuations, the limits of cost-cutting, opportunities in healthcare and why stock selection is becoming increasingly important. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Popular.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Popular

The popular Australian economic narrative includes the argument the consumer is weak, and we are heading towards a recession.

But Australia’s latest retail earnings results are painting a more nuanced picture. In other words, the household sector is under pressure, but the pressure is not falling evenly.

Spending on essentials remains resilient, value-conscious consumers are still buying when the offer is compelling, and well-run retailers are protecting profit through better gross margins, lower costs and tighter capital discipline.

At the same time, however, the more discretionary categories continue to show weak traffic and softer like-for-like sales. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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ARB Corporation (ASX: ARB) is Australia’s leading designer, manufacturer, and distributor of premium 4×4 vehicle accessories. Known worldwide for its flagship bull bars, suspension systems, roof racks, and camping gear, the company operates an extensive retail, wholesale, and export network serving off-road enthusiasts, commercial fleets, and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I discuss our positioning in the big four banks and why we maintain a significant underweight. After a period of strong bank performance, we believe the outlook is shifting as credit growth moderates and economic conditions evolve, supporting our current positioning. continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Economics, Financial Services, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Financial Services, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights

If you follow financial news, like I do, you might have recently heard market commentator Trevor Hall summarise Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s latest move in a single eye-opener:

“He’s buying back bonds with 1 per cent interest rates at 50 cents on the dollar and replacing them with short-term debt that currently yields 3 and ¾ per cent.”

It sounds like a paradox. Why would the U.S. government buy back debt that costs them almost nothing (1 per cent interest rates) and swap it for debt that costs almost four times as much (3.75 per cent)? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary

This week, the market’s most irrepressible bull, Ed Yardeni published another blog promoting his bullish thesis entitled, Peak Fear? Peak Yields? Peak Earnings? Peak AI?, alongside co-author Elias Griepentrog.

The headline gives away the framework because Yardeni and Griepentrog immediately answer the four questions in order:

Peak Fear? Yes.
Peak Yields? Maybe.
Peak Earnings? No.
Peak AI? No.

Let’s look at each argument in turn. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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FDC Consolidated Holdings Limited (ASX: FDC), a major Australian construction, fit-out, and building services company, has had an auspicious beginning as a public company after listing for $3.00 per share on the ASX on 13 July 2026. FDC reported a 13 per cent increase in revenue for the year to June 2026 to $1.69 billion, whilst underlying Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) (excluding listing costs) rose 18 per cent to $96.5 million. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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SkinKandy (ASX: SK1) is Australia and New Zealand’s self-proclaimed leading specialty piercing and body jewellery retailer. Operating a ‘service-led retail model,’ the company delivers over 60 distinct types of professional body and ear piercings alongside a range of high-margin jewellery and specialised aftercare products. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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Supermarket giant Coles Group released its FY26 full-year earnings this week, delivering metrics that were modestly ahead of market expectations.

Despite persistent cost-of-living pressures facing Australian households, the company reported solid execution, robust supermarket growth, and strong efficiency measures.

Initial market excitement, however, is being tempered by an elevated capital expenditure outlook and a softer-than-expected early trading update for FY27.

Consequently, investors will weigh the solid historical performance against near-term cash-flow headwinds and competitive threats. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular.

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At a conference in October 1975 at the Winter Gardens in Blackpool, UK, Margaret Thatcher critiqued socialism.  Despite her insights 51 years ago, left-leaning leaders today still try and fail to make socialism work.

From Canada under Justin Trudeau, and New Zealand under Jacinda Ardern, to the U.K under Keir Starmer, and even the U.S. under Biden, nations have elected officials to enact ideological promises with disastrous fiscal, economic and social consequences.

While no one’s policies are perfect and many were flawed, let Margaret Thatcher’s criticism of the socialist agenda 51 years ago be a reminder to our voters today that we can’t tax our way to prosperity.  Prosperity requires financial discipline, enterprise, affordable energy, productivity, and investment. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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