Market commentary

I’ve been spending some time today looking through Terry Moran’s latest piece on President Trump’s approach to the escalating conflict in Iran. Moran’s take – that the President is essentially “winging it” – is a sobering read for any disciplined investor.

According to Moran, when you look at the transcripts from the President’s recent flurry of interviews with the New York Times, ABC News, The Atlantic, Fox News, and MS Now, you don’t see a cohesive strategy. You see a series of contradictory “exits.” One minute it’s a popular uprising, the next it’s a negotiated settlement, and the next it’s “we’ll see what happens.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary

If you’ve spent any time on social media lately, you’ve seen them: sleek, metallic bipeds performing backflips in China, dancing to Motown, or gingerly stacking the dishwasher or placing a singular box on a shelf. The robotics hype cycle suggests that in four years’ time (2030), a robot will be folding your laundry and helping your nanna out of bed.

Despite billions of dollars invested, however, they remain science experiments confronting daunting technical challenges. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications

April 9, last year, Donald Trump postponed his Liberation Day tariffs, fuelling a stock market rally led by artificial intelligence (AI) optimism. That optimism turned to fear this year as joy towards AI’s productivity enhancements morphed into panic about how many businesses it would destroy.

That panic reached an even higher level of urgency last week, when James van Geelen, a thematic investor and former entrepreneur who founded a healthcare company before moving into investment research on Substack, hypothesised that AI would lay waste to the entire global consumer economy, leaving generations of white-collar workers redundant. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications

While investors look to the next Nvidia earnings call or the latest OpenELM (Open-source Efficient Language Models) release to predict the future of artificial intelligence (AI), Michael Burry – made famous for making billions shorting markets ahead of 2008 subprime crisis – recently turned to an article entitled Thought without Language, The Narrative of a Deaf-Mute, His First Thoughts and Experiences, in the June 19, 1880, edition of the New York Times.

“The case study is of a teacher at the Columbia Institute for the Instruction of the Deaf and Dumb. This particular teacher, Melville Ballard, is also a deaf mute and a graduate of the National Deaf Mute College.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

• 3 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications

The HY26 results for Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (ASX:DMP) mark a “reset” phase for the company, as it moves away from a decades-long reliance on deep discounting and volume growth toward a more sustainable, value-driven model.

While this transition will take time, the underlying focus on franchisee health and cost discipline is laying the groundwork for a leaner, more resilient business, perhaps explaining the nine per cent share price bounce at the time of writing (26 February 2026), following an 11 per cent drop the day before on the day of the result’s release. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Market commentary

In a deal announced today, Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG) will buy Barrenjoey Investment Bank. For long-term investors, it could provide the opportunity to invest in another ASX-listed investment bank. Could it be the next Macquarie Bank?

Of course, there is a long way to go from Barrenjoey’s $1.6 billion valuation to Macquarie’s $76.3 billion market capitalisation, so this blog is limited to examining today’s deal without commenting on valuation or predicting share prices. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

As we have outlined here on the blog many times over the last year, there just doesn’t seem to be enough money in the hands of potential customers to pay for artificial intelligence (AI) tools that would give hyperscalers a decent return on their intended capital expenditure.

The more they spend, the more revenue and profit they must generate to produce a meaningful return on capital. But the more they invest through capital expenditure, the more competition there’ll be between them (lowering prices for their commoditised products) or the greater the level of overcapacity (also lowering prices).

And when you think about the companies in this race, the capital expenditure (capex) is transforming them from cash-generative, capital-light, high-margin businesses whose services have become verbs into capital-heavy, highly indebted businesses. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications

This week I join Nicola and Di for the first 2026 episode of Over The Money Fence. This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence.

In this episode, we take a look at the changes that are currently happening in the world, and how that could impact our finances. I explain how the tailwinds that have benefited the stock markets in the past, and have benefited the Baby Boomers and Gen X are shifting, and why that means investors may need to consider other investments. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel

Rodney Brooks is the Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus) at MIT. For the last eight years, he has been publishing his predictions each year on self-driving cars, electric vehicles (EVs), robotics, artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning, and human space travel. Each year, Brooks reviews his prior forecasts without fear or favour.  Brooks has promised to review his predictions annually until 2050 (right after his 95th birthday), for a total of 32 years. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

Many believe the era of easy investing is over and after several strong years in equity markets, opportunities are harder to find and valuations are less forgiving. So, with traditional 60/40 portfolios under pressure, investors are looking for diversification, income and resilience.

In this exclusive Ausbiz event, I joined Nadine Blayney for an in-depth discussion on equity alternatives and the strategies designed to help protect and grow your wealth.

We explored

• The importance of rebalancing in the current market environment
• How to think about diversification, income and resilience
• How private credit works – and why investors can use it for a reliable income stream
• High-frequency trading and arbitrage funds: historically the domain of proprietary trading firms and institutions, now accessible to investors
• Key risks and what to look for when assessing these types of strategies

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, TV Appearances