Market commentary

In this video, I discuss Computershare (ASX: CPU), a global provider of share registry and shareholder administration services, and why it caught our attention during the year. I explain how the company’s decision to sell lower-returning businesses and refocus on its core operations has improved the quality of the business, while a significant fall in the share price presented a more attractive valuation. Together, these factors led us to establish a position in Computershare. continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.

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If you haven’t noticed already, allow me to point out that investment discussions about artificial intelligence (AI) frequently devolve into almost insulting debates between AI evangelists, who cite massive total addressable markets (TAM) and explosive user growth, and sceptics, pointing to trillions of dollars in capital expenditure (capex), a buildout based on speculation, exorbitant compute costs, and an unclear path to profitability.

Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern professor and widely respected value investor, believes this debate has largely gone off the rails, noting in a recent post, “The debate about AI, in my view, has gone off the track with advocates and sceptics often talking past each other”. Optimists cherry-pick usage metrics, while pessimists focus on heavy spending, with both sides ignoring the rigorous business analysis that needs to take place in the middle. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In public finance, there is a simple truth that ideologues spend years trying to evade: Eventually, the numbers catch up with you.

Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when I was studying at University in Melbourne, the economic mismanagement of the Kane and Kirner Labor governments reduced what was then called the Garden State to an economic basket case.

Decades later and Labor has done it again, hitting Victoria hard.

When Labor came to power there in 2014, the state’s debt was $21.8 billion. Today, it exceeds $160 billion and is rapidly approaching $200 billion, making Victoria one of Australia’s heaviest financial ball-and-chains. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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In my article for The Australian, I look at why many Australians are feeling worse off despite the economy continuing to grow. Rising living costs, expensive housing and weak productivity are making it increasingly difficult for households to get ahead.

I also discuss how government decisions around housing, taxation and spending may be adding to these pressures, with younger Australians in particular facing higher rents, falling affordability and greater financial strain.

Download the article here: Labor’s economics making us all poorer continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, In the Press, Market commentary.

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There’s a consistent view of the consumer emerging from Australia’s Financial year 2026 (FY26) retail reporting season.

Households haven’t stopped spending, but they’ve become more selective, more value-conscious and increasingly willing to postpone discretionary purchases or wait for promotions and sales.

The pressure is most evident in big-ticket categories like furniture, appliances, and homewares. Nick Scali (ASX:NCK) noted a significant decline in store traffic late in the year; JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) mentioned that customers are focusing their purchases around major sales; and Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) said that while browsing continues, customers are delaying their buying decisions. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss why traditional approaches to diversification may no longer offer investors the same protection they once did. We explored how persistent inflation has changed the relationship between shares and bonds, the growing concentration of global share markets in a handful of artificial intelligence (AI) linked companies, and why investors may need to diversify beyond traditional asset classes and markets by considering a broader range of investment strategies.

Listen to the full segment from 1:46:20 – ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why traditional approaches to diversification may no longer provide the same protection for investors. We explored persistent inflation, growing concentration in equity markets, the risks emerging around AI and hyperscaler spending, and why investors may need to look beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio towards alternative strategies, including private credit.

Watch the full episode on Ausbiz here: Why Roger thinks 60/40 diversification is dead continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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In recent days, we have seen three ASX listed companies receive offers by private equity, and in each case, it appears their ownership will likely head overseas. 

I Squared Capital

New York based “Sophisticated and long-term infrastructure investor”, I Squared Capital has bid $1.70 per share for oOh!media Limited (ASX: OML), thus valuing the company at over $1.0 billion in Enterprise Value (EV), including the $130 million of net debt as at June 2026. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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While the debate continues over whether the artificial intelligence (AI) thematic is a bubble, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq continue to climb a wall of worry. You’d think this would cause at least some of the AI sceptics to throw in the towel, but if anything, it has reinforced their resolve and reinforced their scepticism.

One of the most vocal is English author and tech columnist Ed Zitron.

In a recent interview with Adam Taggart, Zitron dismantled the core promises of the AI boom, suggesting current Large Language Models (LLMs) are an unsustainable, highly subsidised circular economy that fails to solve basic business problems. He also highlights immediate balance sheet pressures, and extreme market concentration. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Despite the utterings from our senior politicians when discussing Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), this figure takes neither the rate of inflation, nor our population growth into consideration.

When our real GDP per capita for the June 2026 Quarter is released on Wednesday 2 September, I am concerned we will see another negative number, delivering lower living standards for Australians, as experienced over recent years. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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