Market commentary
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The great recession that never was. Should we sound the all-clear? No
Roger Montgomery
August 18, 2023
Panic and speculation about a significant economic downturn in the U.S. have been part of financial discourse over the past year. Many analysts and most economists were expecting a recession, a negative shift in the economic tide, and that fear is what prevented many investors from buying equities and missing out on the gains since November. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Uncertain Central Banks requires diversification
Roger Montgomery
August 14, 2023
Have you noticed in recent months central banks have been ambiguous about their future policy actions? This could be because they don’t know what the future holds, or it could be intentional. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Deflation and economic growth now suggested by the U.S. Fed
Roger Montgomery
August 10, 2023
Let me share some fresh insights affirming a view we have articulated since November last year: A recession is not inevitable, and 2023 could be a stellar year for stocks, particularly if deflation is accompanied by even anaemic economic growth. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why a U.S. recession is no sure thing
Roger Montgomery
July 27, 2023
Fears of a U.S. recession and its impact on small companies may be one reason the share prices of many small caps have been subdued over the past year. But is a recession inevitable? Possibly not, if you look at recent data. For investors, this means many quality businesses are likely trading at very attractive prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why small caps could rally from here
Roger Montgomery
July 25, 2023
Back on 12 October last year, with the S&P500 in the grip of a bear market, we published a blog titled “Why it might be time to be greedy once more”. It’s turned out to be a good call, as the index has since gained 21 per cent. But not all companies have participated in the rally – large caps have easily outpaced small caps, which are now selling at very attractive prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Are we headed for another AI winter?
Roger Montgomery
July 21, 2023
I remember the 1999 tech boom like it was yesterday. I was at Merrill Lynch and the average first-day premium for a Nasdaq IPO was 90 per cent! What stood out was investors’ predilection for anything with a ‘.com’ attached to it. Plenty of companies, even junior mining explorers, whacked a .com on the tail of their changed name and watched their valuations surge. Today, I’m seeing the same trend with artificial intelligence (AI). continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why you should ignore the economic noise
Roger Montgomery
July 20, 2023
Right now, I think many investors are spending too much time focusing on whether a recession is imminent and how many more interest rate rises are likely before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) taps out. I think they would be far better off trying to identify quality companies that are winning market share, raising prices and margins, and expanding into new regions. And there are plenty of those. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Farewell fiscal 2023, hello fiscal 2024
David Buckland
July 10, 2023
The period from late 2021 into much of 2022 saw strong rising official cash rates and widespread worries about an upcoming recession, equities mostly surprised by delivering strong performance in the financial year of 2023. Investors demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability as they actively pursued opportunities in the market. However, the year also witnessed a slowdown in global industrial production, leading to a weakening of commodity prices. Notably, the oil price experienced a significant decline of 30 per cent throughout FY23. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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The best time to invest in small caps is now
Roger Montgomery
June 30, 2023
Fears of recession, a market correction and runaway inflation have caused small-cap stocks to materially underperform their large-cap cousins. Those same fears have led many investors asking how wise it is to invest in a small-cap fund now. But investors should remember the stock market is the only market where consumers zip up their wallets when prices are low. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Good news for equities. Investors can expect higher liquidity
Roger Montgomery
June 28, 2023
Putting value to one side, the price of an asset cannot rise unless investors buy it. And, in order to buy it, they require liquidity. Tracking global liquidity can go some way to explaining, if not predicting, the path of asset prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
