Market commentary
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Do you feel rich?
Christopher Demasi
October 23, 2018
Do you feel rich? If you’re an Australian reader, then you might, at least when compared to your fellow citizens around the world. Last week Credit Suisse, released its annual report on global wealth for 2018 and Australia is leading the field. continue…
by Christopher Demasi Posted in Market commentary
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Contextualizing the Size of the U.S. Economy
Amit Nath
October 23, 2018
The United States is the world’s largest economy, however it can be difficult to contextualize just how big $19.4 trillion actually is. While the only comparable single economy in the world would be China at $12.2 trillion, the U.S. is still ~60 per cent larger. In fact the U.S. needs to be compared to entire regions like Asia or Europe, which obviously comprise of numerous countries in order to create a suitably sized peer. continue…
by Amit Nath Posted in Global markets, Market commentary
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Is our market lulled into a false sense of security?
Roger Montgomery
October 22, 2018
One look at the best performers on the ASX tells you the market is sanguine about risk. How else to explain the soaring valuations of companies like Afterpay, Appen and Altium? I fear this is the calm before the storm, and today’s high returns and low volatility might soon make way for lower returns and higher volatility. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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When will the gap between the most expensive and cheapest companies contract?
Roger Montgomery
October 19, 2018
If the last few months has reinforced anything, it is that the market can remain irrational for a very long time. Despite already being expensive, the disparity between the cheapest and most expensive has widened even further in recent months. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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Job market hits an all-time high, but where is the wage growth?
Lachlan Mackay
October 19, 2018
The US Labor Department has released the results of their latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, revealing the economy has set records across the board. Despite the recent market volatility, unemployment has been pushed down to a near five-decade low of 3.7 per cent. continue…
by Lachlan Mackay Posted in Global markets, Market commentary
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Debt levels are indeed hurting
Andreas Lundberg
October 17, 2018
Data that forms an investment thesis is not always presented in the most coherent and easy to digest manner. It is indeed often the case that once data has been distilled into a form that is easy to draw conclusions from, it is often too late to act on as the trend has already become obvious. It is therefore often even more interesting to look at more circumstantial data that can give an early indication of the future direction of the more substantiated data. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary
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U.S./China Relationship Turns Icy
George Hadjia
October 15, 2018
As the trade war between the U.S. and China intensifies, there seems to be no letting up of the barbs being exchanged between the two sides. It is worth examining how the U.S./China relationship is changing, and what the implications of this are for investing in global equities. continue…
by George Hadjia Posted in Global markets, Market commentary
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What is “Cash” and Why it Matters – Narrow Road Capital
Roger Montgomery
October 2, 2018
With punitive rates, and even negative in some jurisdictions, cash has become a liability for many in recent years. But cash is actually most valuable when nobody else has any and given our belief that the value of cash is increasing, Jonathan Rochford from Narrow Road Capital provides a note that is incredibly timely. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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Checking in on Cash and Inflation
Amit Nath
September 28, 2018
After a seemingly long hiatus, inflation is finally edging up in the United States, driven by a number of factors including tax cuts, commodities, shipping and fuel prices. We think it may be interesting to put the most recent headline CPI print of 2.7 per cent year-over-year into context. continue…
by Amit Nath Posted in Global markets, Market commentary
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Howard Marks takes the market’s Temperature
Roger Montgomery
September 27, 2018
Legendary Value investor, Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital has just released his latest memo to investors overnight. His observation that “overly generous capital markets ultimately lead to unwise financing, and thus to danger for participants” is worth noting with respect to Australia’s recent property boom… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary
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