Market commentary

As we approach the middle of the year, markets and the global economy appear to be locked in a “tug of war” between the geopolitical shock of the war in the Middle East and the rapid maturation and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI).

The war has removed an estimated 12 million barrels of oil per day from the global market – the largest supply hit in history. Indeed, according to Macquarie Bank, global crude oil declines so far in 2026, have significantly exceeded those during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 1990 Gulf War and the second Gulf War of 2003. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined David Taylor on ABC’s The Business to discuss the recent strength in the Australian dollar and why markets are viewing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as one of the more hawkish central banks globally. I explained that investors are increasingly betting on further Australian rate rises, which has helped push the Australian dollar higher relative to other currencies. We also discussed how rising oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming federal budget could all influence inflation and the future direction of interest rates. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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Trump recently boasted on Truth Social of the US$45 billion he made for the U.S. by investing in Intel. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.

The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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For as long as I have been around, the local supermarket and grocery store were the bastions of “what you see is what you get.” You picked up a jar of Vegemite or a tin of baked beans, looked at the price sticker stuck on the lid or the paper tag on the shelf, and you knew exactly what you were going to pay when you arrived at the checkout. 

But if companies and their board members have their way, that certainty will soon evaporate. And it will be replaced with something far more fluid, algorithmic, and, quite frankly, offensive and invasive and designed to handicap you.

It is called Surveillance Pricing, and if the government allows it, it will be the icing on the cake of the rip-off society we now live in, where Aussies are constantly shafting other Aussies. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to break down what’s actually on the table ahead of the federal budget. With a large deficit, ongoing inflation and rising government spending, I said this is an important budget and a time when rumours can spread quickly. I pushed back on claims of an inheritance tax and a cash ban, noting there’s little political appetite for either, while highlighting that changes to superannuation for higher balances are already in place. We also discussed how an EV road user charge could be introduced over time as fuel excise declines. On housing, I said policy tweaks like negative gearing changes are unlikely to have much impact, with credit availability and migration remaining the key drivers. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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Worley Limited (ASX: WOR) has spent much of the past decade trying to redefine itself. Once known primarily as a traditional engineering contractor tied to cyclical project work, the company expanded aggressively into energy services through the acquisition of Jacobs’ ECR division in 2019, just before the world turned against fossil fuels. What followed was a difficult period marked by integration challenges, weak energy markets and a sharp de-rating as investors questioned both the strategy and the sustainability of earnings. Today, that same business is being viewed through a very different lens as the importance of energy and infrastructure are being highlighted by headlines and capital allocation. continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like.

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China has supported a ceasefire in the Middle East and JD Vance made his first pilgrimage to meet with senior Iranian leaders. And while Donald Trump’s exit would inevitably be messy, and riddled with false starts, it seems reasonably safe to assume the process of ending the conflict began last month.

It seems the market received the brief. The ASX 200 is up almost 6 per cent from its March 23 lows, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up 11 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, from their lows on March 30.

The remaining question for investors is what happens next.

This article was first published in The Australian on 24 April 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Are housing prices on the way down, and what does war in the Middle East mean for markets, investors and their superannuation?

I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to unpack these issues, explaining why forecasts of sharp housing declines are unlikely given the strong incentives supporting prices, from migration to government policy and bank balance sheets. We also discussed how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could delay rate cuts, the potential for recent market gains to fade, and how the “SaaSpocalypse” (Software as a Service apocalypse) and artificial intelligence (AI) are impacting companies and investors.

Tune in to hear the segment: ABC Nightlife. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this video insight, I explain why, while economists continue debating whether a recession is coming, many Australians are already living through one, as falling retail volumes, reduced discretionary spending and rising everyday costs take hold. Drawing on real-world examples from business owners and households, I highlight how shrinking disposable income is driving cutbacks, before outlining practical steps to prepare, including reducing non-essential spending, paying down high-cost debt and protecting your primary source of income. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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