Market commentary

There’s been a conga line of prognosticators who have forecast falling house prices. All of them have faded into history as house prices have grown since the 1970s, first at the rate of inflation, then at the rate of wage growth, then at the rate of Artemis II launch.

Recently, Money.com.au contracted Primara Research to produce a forecast of Aussie house prices for 2030 under a variety of interest rate, supply, and unemployment scenarios. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property.

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Corporate strategic pivots are common throughout history and particularly during market booms. Recall the mining companies that became internet companies during the internet bubble of 1999. Back then, merely adding “.com” to a company’s name saw its share price surge. 

In the 1920s, radio was the ‘Internet and artificial intelligence (AI)’ equivalent of its day. It was the first time an electronic buzzword could instantly inflate a company’s value, and between 1922 and 1929, sales of radio equipment in the U.S. jumped from US$60 million to over US$840 million. Investors were so hungry for radio exposure that any company adding the word to its name saw its stock soar. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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The gigawatt IPOs

Ahead of a multi-billion-dollar Australian data centre Initial Public Offering (IPO), many local investors are taking a particular interest in the sector, swatting up on everything they can learn. Of particular interest are the latest developments at Datacentre hopeful Fermi America.

In the age of Agentic Artificial Intelligence (AI), building the world’s largest data centre sounds like a license to print money. But as Fermi America shareholders are currently discovering, even having the former U.S. Secretary of Energy as a co-founder and the Trump name on the door doesn’t make concrete pour any faster. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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On ABC Newcastle Mornings earlier today, I discussed rising recession risks and why, for many Australians, it already feels like one as cost-of-living pressures, high debt and shrinking disposable income take hold. I also shared practical steps households can take now to prepare, from cutting non-essential spending to building a financial buffer. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

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Themes like artificial intelligence (AI) can drive strong investor demand, but they can also blur the finer details. As more AI infrastructure businesses come to market, it’s a reminder to look beyond the excitement and focus on valuation, incentives and structure, because these are often what ultimately shape investor outcomes.

Read the article: ‘Rug pull’ or index inclusion play? Firmus’ IPO lock-up rules in focus as its roadshow rolls on continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary, On the Internet.

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Should persistent inflation drive a portfolio shift?

Helped by a 12 per cent rally since the war-inspired low recorded on March 30, the U.S. S&P 500 index is now at new all-time highs and more than two per cent above its previous all-time high recorded in February. 

It’s reasonable to conclude the global and U.S. economies are healthy and booming, as is the AI rollout. But those booms, along with the shocks stemming from war in the Middle East, may be sowing the seeds of a pivot and an inflation threat that could have serious implications for portfolio construction. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australian consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in more than five decades, despite relatively low unemployment (around 4.3 per cent compared to over 11 per cent in the 1990s) and interest rates (around 4.1 per cent compared to 17.5 per cent in the 1990s), with the key drivers being a sharp rise in household debt (now about 180 per cent of disposable income versus roughly 45 per cent four to five decades ago) and an intense cost-of-living squeeze across housing, childcare (around $180 per day), education (something that used to be free), and everyday expenses. I also highlighted how this pressure is contributing to a hollowing out of the middle class and increasing postcode-driven inequality, while noting that periods of extremely weak sentiment can sometimes create opportunities for long-term investors as fear drives short-term market dislocations.
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by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I have been challenging my own thinking on this subject, and I am eager to distil the debate into the primary arguments, which are defined by a profound division.

That division mainly pits a sceptical public, the media, and some investors against an optimistic and arguably self-serving Silicon Valley, populated by tech pioneers and billionaires.

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 April 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Yikes! Did the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) just propose a material reduction in its balance sheet?

After the war is over, investors will revert to concentrating on earnings and other thematics again, and a recent Fed research paper may give investors something to worry about. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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In late March 2026, the ANZ Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Index hit the lowest level since the survey began in the early 1970s. 

Last week (5 April 2026), it rallied to the second worst week on record, as motorists received a $0.26 per litre reduction in the fuel excise.  And this week, I’m confident it will rally further on the back of the provisional ceasefire between the USA and Iran and the announcement of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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