Market Valuation

SpaceX has some real businesses, but if I am completely lucid, I’d say there’s no business that would support its US$2 trillion valuation.

While the headlines are made by rockets and SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9, which has radically changed the economics of sending cargo into orbit, slashing launch costs by 85 per cent to roughly US$2,700 per kilogram, it is Starlink that generated US$11 billion of last year’s US$18 billion in revenue. 

In fact, sending rockets into space doesn’t do a lot for the company’s finances. Indeed, SpaceX generates more revenue from renting out its NVIDIA chips to Anthropic than it does from rockets. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Kylie Morris on ABC Newcastle Mornings today to discuss the extraordinary rise of SpaceX following its record Initial Public Offering (IPO). We explored why the company’s valuation appears disconnected from traditional measures of value, how NASDAQ’s fast-tracked index inclusion could force ETFs and superannuation funds to buy shares, and why investors should be mindful of the risks that can emerge when market hype and scarcity drive prices higher.

Listen from 37:04: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market Valuation, Radio.

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A peace deal between Iran and the United States has transformed the outlook for global markets – at least for now.

I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed, to discuss which sectors stand to benefit most from falling oil prices, why airlines, retailers and property stocks could outperform, and why history suggests investors should be cautious despite the optimism.

I also touch on the extraordinary valuation of SpaceX, why Elon Musk may be the greatest marketer the world has ever seen, and the surprising role Google may have played ahead of the company’s IPO.

Listen here: 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel.

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Bullish investors believe AI is a new, infinite fourth factor of a nation’s production and wealth creation. In the past, we had labour, capital and land as production inputs, all of which were, of course, finite. Land provided the raw materials, labour the muscle and the mind to transform them, and capital was the tool.

Enter AI. The transformative aspect of this fourth ingredient is that, unlike the physical limitations of land or the finite hours of the human workforce, data is a resource that is functionally unlimited. And, importantly, it’s the only factor of production that actually grows more abundant the more we use it.

This article was first published in The Australian on 27 May 2026.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss why global equity markets may be closer to a peak than many investors expect. We explored the historical link between oil-price spikes and weaker share markets, why even strong artificial intelligence (AI) –driven earnings growth may not protect valuations in a higher-rate environment, and how the excitement surrounding SpaceX is pushing many listed “proxy” space stocks into hyper-exponential territory untethered from fundamentals.

You can watch via Ausbiz here: Global equities may be closer to a peak than many investors expect

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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Scott Galloway is an American academic, author, podcast host, and serial entrepreneur. He’s best known as a Clinical Professor of Marketing at the New York University Stern School of Business and a prominent commentator on big tech, modern economics, and social trends.

Galloway has recently and publicly joined the ranks of stock market bears, predicting we’re on the precipice of a US$10 trillion wipeout while immediately noting he, “gets this wrong all the time [so] this is not financial advice.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the growing divide between market bulls and bears, and how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the investment landscape. We explored why investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about AI’s long-term potential and the productivity gains it could unlock across the economy. We also discussed the risks rising inflation, higher bond yields and elevated interest rates could pose to markets and asset valuations if economic conditions deteriorate.

Listen to the segment here: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market Valuation, Radio.

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I joined David Taylor on ABC’s The Business to discuss the recent strength in the Australian dollar and why markets are viewing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as one of the more hawkish central banks globally. I explained that investors are increasingly betting on further Australian rate rises, which has helped push the Australian dollar higher relative to other currencies. We also discussed how rising oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming federal budget could all influence inflation and the future direction of interest rates. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.

The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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An oft-made and persistent mistake investors make is assuming what’s worked recently will continue to work indefinitely.

Referred to as ‘representativeness” it’s a psychological recency bias trap. Essentially, the comfort of the current winners prompts us to ‘bottom drawer’ them and simultaneously blinds us to the inevitability of economic cycles. Indeed, despite historical evidence of economic cycles and industry leadership change, we prefer the path of least resistance, which means hanging onto current winners, hoping they will always be so. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Manufacturing, Market Valuation.

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