Market Valuation

How to respond

Across my articles and media commentaries, I have emphasised that preparing for an artificial intelligence (AI) re-pricing is not about timing a top or shorting tech, but rather about protecting capital through discipline, factor balance, and liquidity.

There are five primary strategies to insulate an investment portfolio from an AI re-rating:

1. Diversify away from equity index heavyweights

Broad, passive equity indices (such as the S&P 500 or Nasdaq) are historically concentrated. Passive flows into index funds mean a significant portion of an investor’s exposure is tied to six or seven AI-driven mega-caps.

Rebalance away from broad index funds that leave up to 60 per cent of equity risk tied to the AI trade. Investors might also consider locking in recent gains and diversifying equity exposure across unsung, non-AI themes. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Last week, Google reported its first ever quarter of negative cash flow, surprising analysts who thought Q1 2027 would be when pressure on cash flows could seriously emerge, and causing the share price to plunge more than seven per cent.

With the clear exception of Tesla, most of the Mag 7 once deserved high earnings multiples because they were asset-light businesses with competitive advantages that didn’t require money to be defended. The artificial intelligence (AI) race has quickly eroded those moats and their characterisation as asset-light, because, over the last two years, they have had to spend hundreds of billions building data centres to remain competitive. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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If you’ve been following the technology headlines, you might be confused by two seemingly contradictory statements. The first is that artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming dramatically cheaper to run, and the second is that tech companies are spending more money on AI compute than ever before.

How can we reconcile these statements, and what does the conclusion mean for companies like Pro Medicus (ASX: PME), Xero (ASX: XRO), NEXTDC (ASX: NXT), Megaport (ASX: MP1) and others?

If the unit price of AI is plummeting, shouldn’t the overall costs be going down? And if AI software is taking over the world, shouldn’t every startup building an AI application (App) be printing money?

To help explain the apparent dichotomy, you need to understand a 160-year-old economic concept called Jevons Paradox that’s currently being referenced everywhere and said to be driving the entire AI industry. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how the rise of passive investing is changing the sharemarket, with index funds increasingly pushing money into the biggest companies regardless of valuation. Using SpaceX as an example, we explored how speculative companies can attract enormous valuations during periods of market optimism, and why that may not last forever. We also looked at what this means for Australians, many of whom may have exposure to these trends through their superannuation.

Tune in from 1:45:22 on ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how the rise of passive investing is reshaping markets. With ETFs and index funds now dominating trading, quality-focused active managers are struggling as money flows into the biggest index constituents regardless of valuation or fundamentals. While this trend may continue for some time, market cycles eventually turn, and when they do, companies with strong fundamentals, high-quality balance sheets and durable cash flows are likely to come back into favour.

Watch the episode here: The “profitless rally” Roger thinks could end badly continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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When I wrote Value.able in 2010, ‘Quality’ as an investing factor was gospel, a foundational truth: buying fundamentally superior businesses at reasonable prices and holding them over the long run was the surest path to wealth creation.

Individuals like Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Mohnish Pabrai, Seth Klarman, Howard Marks and Terry Smith proved, over decades, that Quality rules. Superior Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) or Return on Equity (ROE), high gross margins, and consistent Free Cash Flow (FCF) conversion inevitably compounded a company’s equity, and ultimately produced outsized returns for investors in those businesses. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I argue that the S&P 500 is no longer the diversified benchmark many investors believe it to be. With an increasing share of the index now driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, concentration risk is at extreme levels. History suggests these periods don’t last forever, making quality companies and genuine diversification worth a closer look.

Download the article here: AI boom turns S&P 500 into a dangerous bet

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Many years ago, I was asked by an AFR journalist whether I would revise my valuation of ABC Learning Centres, which was a tiny fraction of the traded price at the time, given the Singaporean Sovereign Wealth Fund (Temasek) had just invested in the company’s then-latest capital raise at a much higher market valuation.

Full of youthful confidence, I responded: “stupid people live in all different countries.”

A familiar pattern of fundraising and deployment was playing out at ABC Learning. It was one I had seen before and one which often resulted in pear-shaped returns for equity investors. That was certainly the case at ABC, which subsequently blew up spectacularly. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the latest ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Survey, which shows confidence is gradually recovering after falling to its lowest level in 53 years, while remaining fragile amid high household debt, rising rents and ongoing cost-of-living pressures. We also discussed the successful ASX debut of FDC Consolidated, highlighting its strong growth, specialist construction and fit-out business, attractive forecast yield and why its listing may signal renewed investor appetite for high-quality IPOs.

Listen from 1:46:00 here: ABC Statewide Drive  continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the ASX debut of FDC Consolidated (ASX), outlining why I believe the construction and fit-out business presents a compelling investment opportunity. I highlighted its 36-year track record, strong insider ownership, large work in progress, repeat client base and attractive forecast yield, while noting that quality businesses can still attract investor demand despite a subdued Initial Public Offering (IPO) market. We also discussed Australia’s fragile consumer confidence, with high household debt, rising rents and ongoing cost-of-living pressures continuing to weigh on sentiment, even as confidence gradually recovers from its 53-year low.

Watch here: FDC’s ASX debut – a builder with bite  continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, TV Appearances.

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