May 5, 2020
In this video insight Roger discusses stock market analogs and attempting to predict what the market is going to do in the future. How effective are such analogs? Not very, because the companies that make up the market are impacted differently and because interest rates, government and central bank settings, labour and productivity are all dissimilar and the drivers of markets will cause a different reaction. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights
March 18, 2020
In this week’s video insight, Andrew Macken reviews the recent changes to our global portfolios. Our concerns surrounding how COVID-19 will impact the US in particular have significantly grown from what they once were. This translates into a much more significant – and relatively longer lasting – downside risk in US aggregate demand than we had previously assessed. Though we certainly hope we are wrong, we now believe we were overestimating the preparedness of many western governments and are therefore facing the possibility of a crisis-in-confidence in these governments.
“Humans tends to be averse to change. It can be surprising, unsettling – even scary. While I realise we may attract criticism for changing our thinking and our positions, we have done so on the basis that we believe it is the right thing to do for the people who have entrusted their capital to us.” Andrew Macken
by Andrew Macken Posted in Montgomery News and Updates, Video Insights
March 12, 2020
With the coronavirus officially being declared a pandemic we bring you this special edition of our video insight discussing how we are handling current market conditions at Montgomery. Today the first order concern is the impact of the virus on populations, the second is the consequences of containment efforts on economic growth, and third are the consequences of protracted lockdowns on the cash flows of businesses. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Montgomery News and Updates, Video Insights
March 9, 2020
In the wake of the latest news about the coronavirus cases and the sharp correction seen in global equities, Andrew Macken, Montaka’s CIO addresses two key questions which are being posed by investors. To learn more, watch this special edition of Montaka’s Spotlight series.
by Andrew Macken Posted in Video Insights
February 27, 2020
In this week’s video insight Roger provides an update on the coronavirus. With the death toll now more than 2,700 and more than 80,000 global cases. Additionally, the Mayor of San Francisco has declared a state of emergency, hotels are in lockdown in Italy and Austria, and the virus is spreading in Iran, Croatia and Switzerland. Other than the last two days of selling, markets have been relatively sanguine about the coronavirus with the S&P500 hitting record highs just last week. Why? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Video Insights
February 19, 2020
In this week’s video insight Tim takes a closer look at value stocks and growth stocks. On the whole, over long periods of time, it looks as though a value investor has enjoyed a significantly better investment experience than a growth investor. Long-term averages are not the whole story, however. Over short periods of time, value can underperform growth significantly.
by Tim Kelley Posted in Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Video Insights
February 12, 2020
In this week’s video insight Andreas reviews our domestic east coast gas prices. It seems that the east coast LNG export adds very little to the Australian economy, given the appointment of a new minister of resources will we see any action taken?
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Video Insights
February 4, 2020
In this week’s video insight Joseph takes a look at the outlook for the two major miners, BHP and Rio Tinto. Generally speaking 2019 was a positive year for the miners, BHP posted a total return of 25 per cent, while Rio Tinto’s performance was even more impressive with a total return of 41 per cent. So why have we decided to not hold either company at their current prices?
by Joseph Kim Posted in Companies, Video Insights
January 21, 2020
In this week’s video insight David reviews the low growth and low inflation environment we currently find ourselves in. This is attributable to four major factors which are structural in nature and are causing disruption across the Western world workforce. Together with casualisation and little growth in real wages, many people are logically feeling less secure. Are there any winners? continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Video Insights
January 17, 2020
In this video Andrew shares a summary of Montaka’s Q4 2019 letter to investors. Discussing the view that the world is favourable for equities at the moment with monetary policies highly accommodative around the world. Andrew also shares a holding in the portfolio – Floor & Decor. continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Global markets, Montgomery News and Updates, Video Insights