Global markets
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A short history of predictions
Roger Montgomery
December 21, 2023
In January this year, a veritable conga-line of economists and strategists were publishing their forecasts for the year ahead, as they do every year. Now, safely at the other end of the 2023 calendar, we have the luxury of testing the prescience of these clairvoyants. Here at Montgomery, we play the ball rather than play the man, so we won’t be naming any of the forecasters, but rest assured, these are all prognostications that were published and distributed in January this year. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Putting today’s market in context
Polen Capital
December 20, 2023
For investors, the last four years have seen some remarkable events, which have had a profound impact on equity markets globally. Volatility has been elevated on both the ups and downs. The global pandemic that began in early 2020 induced a sharp correction as the initial curtailment of day-to-day activity became apparent. This reversed quite rapidly with many listed companies posting outsized gains as they benefitted from changing behaviours. continue…
by Polen Capital Posted in Global markets, Polen Capital.
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Keep an eye on New Zealand as the lead indicator
David Buckland
December 14, 2023
In this week’s video insight, I delve into the discussions surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s proactive approach to inflation, the nuanced shifts in major economies, and the potential impacts of tightening monetary policies. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Are small caps finally taking off?
Roger Montgomery
December 12, 2023
Back in July, I wrote about the historically large gap between large and small-cap companies, noting that the extremely narrow rally in the largest technology companies, now more commonly referred to as the Magnificent Seven, resulted in many smaller caps being relatively undervalued. The highest-quality names with earnings growth may present a compelling opportunity, especially if professional investors conclude the macroeconomic and interest-rate backdrop is supportive. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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What can we expect from stocks and bonds in 2024?
Roger Montgomery
December 8, 2023
Since late October, financial markets have witnessed a significant shift, adjusting to a softer labour market and persistent disinflation. As an aside, the latter – disinflation – was a condition we wrote about a year ago, suggesting it should support the share prices of innovative growth companies, especially those with pricing power. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
INTEREST RATES, THE BEST IT GETS. IT’S TIME TO DEPLOY CASH
Curious about the investment landscape in 2024? It appears that the current market offers a plethora of enticing opportunities for investors, a rarity not experienced since pre-pandemic times. This unique scenario stems from a confluence of factors, including elevated yields and comparatively rational equity valuations.
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Could deflation be the next surprise?
Roger Montgomery
December 7, 2023
After the well-documented U.S. money printing spree of 2020-21, something interesting happened in the U.S.: Inflation started picking up in 2021-2022. Just as it takes time for water to fill a bucket, it took time for inflation to emerge, but when it did, annualised inflation averaged 7.7 per cent for 18 months from January 2021 to July 2022 (Figure 1). continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
ABC The Business – Munger’s legacy, U.S. rates, and RBA predictions
Roger Montgomery
November 30, 2023
In this week’s interview on ABC The Business, we delved into the recent developments surrounding Charlie Munger’s passing, the shifts in U.S. rates, and the premature assumptions made by investors about next year’s anticipated downward movements. Additionally, we explored the Reserve Bank of Australia’s insights on rates and their potential future trajectory. To catch the complete discussion, simply jump to the 11:50-minute mark in the episode published on November 29. ABC The Business – Munger’s legacy, U.S. rates, and RBA predictions
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, TV Appearances.
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Transferring the pain from the levered Chinese property developers to the banks
David Buckland
November 30, 2023
As China reflated its economy in 2015, we saw a massive five-to-six-year tailwind assisting the property boom. Speculation and strong property prices led to over-supply, and the eventual carnage experienced by most highly levered Chinese property developers over the past two years. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Property.
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Mezzanine finance revealing another weak spot in the U.S. economy.
Roger Montgomery
November 21, 2023
After the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), U.S. regulators imposed stricter regulations on larger banks. Limiting their riskier lending for commercial real estate and development. Their more conservative lending practices meant property owners turned to smaller banks or sought second loans from non-bank lenders to bridge their financing gaps, often on top of existing bank mortgages. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.
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What factors influence the future of oil?
Roger Montgomery
November 16, 2023
As world oil’s upstream and downstream industries stand at a crossroads, investors globally face the challenge of deciphering innumerable geopolitical and economic signals. These signals will also directly impact inflation rates with implications for central bank interest rate policy. For investors, the outlook for oil holds more than the usual amount of sway. From potential upheavals in the Middle East to colossal mergers in the U.S., here’s a shallow dive into the factors influencing the future of oil. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary.
