Economics

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss the 2026 Federal Budget and whether changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and negative gearing could ultimately create unintended consequences for younger Australians. While the reforms are aimed at improving housing affordability, I explained why reduced incentives for investors and forecasts for fewer homes to be built could place further pressure on supply and long-term wealth creation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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Higher global inflation and lower growth will reflect the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U.S./Iran war. 

The near-term forecasts for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) use a Reference Scenario, Adverse Scenario and a Severe Scenario, as illustrated in Graph 1 below. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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In my latest video insight, I explain why I believe the budget could fundamentally reshape property investing in Australia. Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax may discourage investment in established properties, slow housing and credit growth, and create unintended consequences for banks, property-related businesses and younger Australians trying to build wealth.

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property, Video Insights.

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This week I am back with Over The Money Fence with Nicola Dale and Di Edwards.  

This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. 

In this episode, I reassure Nicola and Di that despite everything that’s going on globally, it’s not all doom and gloom when it comes to the economy and markets. 

Are we in a recession? I discuss the cost-of-living crisis and how this is changing our spending habits, plus the latest pricing tricks used by supermarkets and airlines. 

We also talk about property and why I believe that people who are predicting that property prices in Australia will fall by 40 per cent are wrong. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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The 2026 Federal Budget has landed with some significant implications for investors.
I discuss the key economic indicators and the tax changes that are set to reshape the investment landscape.

Economy

The starting point is to expect higher global inflation and lower growth with the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U.S./Iran war.

Growth in Australia is expected to slow to 1.75 per cent in 2026/2027.

Real wages are expected to go backwards again, which means living standards are expected to decline. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.

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I was fascinated by this ABC article, which welcomed the federal Labor Government’s expected changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax in the 2026 Budget. While the article focuses heavily on tax policy as the lever for change, it largely omits the supply-side pressures of record migration and high construction costs. It also ignores the massive burden Labor’s massive and unbridled spending has on the budget, ensuring the young are locked in to paying off the debt for decades to come. Finally, it ignores the fact that when the older generation have taken out a mortgage to fund a rental property investment, they are reducing their burden on social welfare, specifically the government funded pension. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property.

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As we approach the middle of the year, markets and the global economy appear to be locked in a “tug of war” between the geopolitical shock of the war in the Middle East and the rapid maturation and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI).

The war has removed an estimated 12 million barrels of oil per day from the global market – the largest supply hit in history. Indeed, according to Macquarie Bank, global crude oil declines so far in 2026, have significantly exceeded those during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 1990 Gulf War and the second Gulf War of 2003. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.

The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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With the prospect of a full-scale war in the Middle East increasing, with bond yields heating up, and with famed short seller Michael Burry increasing his short position against the U.S. SOXX Semiconductor Index, could this month be the month that investors will look back on with regret, wishing they’d diversified?

It’s a midterm election year in the U.S.

Let’s begin with the U.S. Midterm elections in mind. Did you know the midterm year is historically the worst year of the four-year presidential cycle for stocks? Some analysts suggest it’s because of something called the “midterm discount.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to break down what’s actually on the table ahead of the federal budget. With a large deficit, ongoing inflation and rising government spending, I said this is an important budget and a time when rumours can spread quickly. I pushed back on claims of an inheritance tax and a cash ban, noting there’s little political appetite for either, while highlighting that changes to superannuation for higher balances are already in place. We also discussed how an EV road user charge could be introduced over time as fuel excise declines. On housing, I said policy tweaks like negative gearing changes are unlikely to have much impact, with credit availability and migration remaining the key drivers. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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