Economics

I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to talk about why markets are holding near all-time highs despite rising geopolitical tensions, soaring gold and silver prices, and growing uncertainty around inflation and interest rates.

We discussed how mining companies are benefiting from strong commodity prices, why consumer spending remains under pressure from rising living costs, and how banks and other key sectors may respond in a more volatile environment. While no one can predict where markets will head next, 2026 is shaping up to be a bumpier year, with investors rotating away from artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and preparing for greater swings as economic and political risks build.

Tune in from 32:41 to hear the full segment: ABC Newcastle Mornings.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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2025 was a strong year for small companies and for the Montgomery Small Companies Fund. In this detailed video, I’m joined by Gary Rollo, Co-Portfolio Manager of the Montgomery Small Companies Fund to review the Fund’s performance, key market drivers, and the outlook for small caps and growth companies heading into 2026. continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Companies, Economics, Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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In my latest article for Firstlinks, I reflect on why 2025 delivered another strong year for equities, supported by the continued combination of disinflation and positive economic growth – with much of the strength driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI).

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, On the Internet.

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Goldman Sachs Research represents one of the largest stockbroking firms in the world.  So, it should come as no surprise that the investment bank has recently published its stock market outlook for the next decade, predicting an average annual return of almost eight per cent.

But if you’ve grown accustomed to smooth and steady gains, you may need to recalibrate your expectations, despite Goldman Sachs’ reassurances. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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2025 has been an eventful year, with some strong returns – but what comes next? I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed for their Summer Series to break down the forces that shaped markets this year. Looking ahead to 2026, I explain why investors should expect higher volatility, limited future gains given today’s stretched valuations, and why rebalancing portfolios into alternative offerings that are uncorrelated to markets should be considered. 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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Let’s state the obvious right at the outset: No one knows for certain if the equity market will crash.

The reality of investing is that we can rarely identify a bubble until after it has burst, which means we can never be sure when we are inside one. However, with that necessary disclaimer in place, I am reasonably confident that investors should prepare for a shift in 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Debt nuances

I just read the following sentence: “Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) rich clouds are now raising multi-billion-dollar debt with GPUs as collateral.”

It got me thinking… continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to reflect on how strong global markets have been over the past three years (particularly in the U.S.) while noting that future returns are likely to be more volatile. I explained that the powerful mix of falling inflation, solid growth, abundant liquidity and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) that drove markets since late 2022 is now changing, with inflation proving stickier, the jobs market losing momentum and liquidity conditions shifting as we head into 2026. 

Tune in from 1:46:40 here: ABC Statewide Drive continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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Back in October, I examined the emerging trend of interest rate cuts across the Western world, looking at why they were occurring and how different economies were responding. Since then, rate cuts have continued in several countries. In this update, I return to the same six economies (Australia, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand), incorporating more recent inflation expectations and labour-market data to assess what these developments may signal for 2026.
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by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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As we farewell the shores of 2025 and sail into 2026, equity investors seem to be shrugging off fears of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and are instead betting on a growing U.S. economy, rate cuts, and a broadening of bullish sentiment beyond the AI leaders.

The consensus view is the U.S. economy is settling into a rate of growth that is more modest than last year’s, avoids a recession and could surprise to the upside. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation and employment data are generally seen as supportive of a Federal Reserve rate cut, even though, according to some economists such as Torsten Slock, two-thirds of inflation seems to be demand-driven. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets.

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