Insightful Insights
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MEDIA
ABC The Business – Currency, Commodities and Investor Confidence
Roger Montgomery
May 11, 2026
I joined David Taylor on ABC’s The Business to discuss the recent strength in the Australian dollar and why markets are viewing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as one of the more hawkish central banks globally. I explained that investors are increasingly betting on further Australian rate rises, which has helped push the Australian dollar higher relative to other currencies. We also discussed how rising oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming federal budget could all influence inflation and the future direction of interest rates. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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May the fourth be with you – A look at the ‘four’ factors of modern economics
Roger Montgomery
May 7, 2026
In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.
The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Midterms, war and U.S. debt
Roger Montgomery
May 7, 2026
With the prospect of a full-scale war in the Middle East increasing, with bond yields heating up, and with famed short seller Michael Burry increasing his short position against the U.S. SOXX Semiconductor Index, could this month be the month that investors will look back on with regret, wishing they’d diversified?
It’s a midterm election year in the U.S.
Let’s begin with the U.S. Midterm elections in mind. Did you know the midterm year is historically the worst year of the four-year presidential cycle for stocks? Some analysts suggest it’s because of something called the “midterm discount.” continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights.
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The truth behind the budget narrative – a closer look at housing, migration, and policy
Roger Montgomery
May 1, 2026
In this video insight I challenge the idea that Labor’s federal budget is delivering genuine intergenerational fairness, arguing instead that it overlooks the fundamental drivers of Australia’s housing pressures. While Labor focuses on taxing investors and reshaping incentives, the reality is that strong migration and limited housing supply continue to fuel demand, keeping vacancy rates tight and affordability under strain. I also question whether shifting the burden onto “mum and dad” investors addresses the real issue, suggesting that broader structural reform and a more honest assessment of policy trade-offs are needed. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Property, Video Insights.
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MEDIA
The Australian – Beyond the stock rally: How top investors are preparing for a major market shift
Roger Montgomery
April 30, 2026
China has supported a ceasefire in the Middle East and JD Vance made his first pilgrimage to meet with senior Iranian leaders. And while Donald Trump’s exit would inevitably be messy, and riddled with false starts, it seems reasonably safe to assume the process of ending the conflict began last month.
It seems the market received the brief. The ASX 200 is up almost 6 per cent from its March 23 lows, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up 11 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, from their lows on March 30.
The remaining question for investors is what happens next.
This article was first published in The Australian on 24 April 2026. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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Cutbacks and caution – Signs the consumer is already retreating
Roger Montgomery
April 28, 2026
In this video insight, I explain why, while economists continue debating whether a recession is coming, many Australians are already living through one, as falling retail volumes, reduced discretionary spending and rising everyday costs take hold. Drawing on real-world examples from business owners and households, I highlight how shrinking disposable income is driving cutbacks, before outlining practical steps to prepare, including reducing non-essential spending, paying down high-cost debt and protecting your primary source of income. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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MEDIA
ABC Newcastle Mornings – Brace for impact: Recession ahead?
Roger Montgomery
April 21, 2026
On ABC Newcastle Mornings earlier today, I discussed rising recession risks and why, for many Australians, it already feels like one as cost-of-living pressures, high debt and shrinking disposable income take hold. I also shared practical steps households can take now to prepare, from cutting non-essential spending to building a financial buffer. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.
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Is a commodity boom beginning?
Roger Montgomery
April 20, 2026
Should persistent inflation drive a portfolio shift?
Helped by a 12 per cent rally since the war-inspired low recorded on March 30, the U.S. S&P 500 index is now at new all-time highs and more than two per cent above its previous all-time high recorded in February.
It’s reasonable to conclude the global and U.S. economies are healthy and booming, as is the AI rollout. But those booms, along with the shocks stemming from war in the Middle East, may be sowing the seeds of a pivot and an inflation threat that could have serious implications for portfolio construction. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Consumer confidence at record lows – and the debt burden beneath it
David Buckland
April 16, 2026
Australian consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in more than 50 years despite relatively low interest rates and unemployment compared to the early 1990s, with the key difference being a sharp rise in household debt, as debt-to-income ratios have more than quadrupled from around 45 per cent to 180 per cent. Combined with ongoing cost-of-living pressures, this has left households far more sensitive to economic shocks, contributing to a hollowing out of the middle class and increasing financial strain on younger generations even as a significant intergenerational wealth transfer unfolds. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Video Insights.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Why we’re gloomier now than ever – and how to take advantage of it
David Buckland
April 16, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australian consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in more than five decades, despite relatively low unemployment (around 4.3 per cent compared to over 11 per cent in the 1990s) and interest rates (around 4.1 per cent compared to 17.5 per cent in the 1990s), with the key drivers being a sharp rise in household debt (now about 180 per cent of disposable income versus roughly 45 per cent four to five decades ago) and an intense cost-of-living squeeze across housing, childcare (around $180 per day), education (something that used to be free), and everyday expenses. I also highlighted how this pressure is contributing to a hollowing out of the middle class and increasing postcode-driven inequality, while noting that periods of extremely weak sentiment can sometimes create opportunities for long-term investors as fear drives short-term market dislocations.
continue…by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
We’re told that markets stop panicking when policymakers start panicking.