Insightful Insights
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – FDC’s ASX debut – a builder with bite
David Buckland
July 9, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the ASX debut of FDC Consolidated (ASX), outlining why I believe the construction and fit-out business presents a compelling investment opportunity. I highlighted its 36-year track record, strong insider ownership, large work in progress, repeat client base and attractive forecast yield, while noting that quality businesses can still attract investor demand despite a subdued Initial Public Offering (IPO) market. We also discussed Australia’s fragile consumer confidence, with high household debt, rising rents and ongoing cost-of-living pressures continuing to weigh on sentiment, even as confidence gradually recovers from its 53-year low.
Watch here: FDC’s ASX debut – a builder with bite continue…by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, TV Appearances.
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The Big Short targets AI
Roger Montgomery
July 8, 2026
If you’ve been following our blogs and Montgomery Minutes about noted short seller Michael Burry, you’ll know he’s been making headlines this year for shorting the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Late last week, he reported he has again increased those short bets.
If you haven’t been following our posts on the subject, Michael Burry is the former chief of the now-closed hedge fund manager Scion Asset Management and was immortalised by Michael Lewis in his 2010 book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, which reported on Burry’s large asymmetric bets against the 2008 U.S. housing bubble. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Consumer confidence – A gentle uptrend after a 53-year low
David Buckland
July 8, 2026
Consumer confidence appears to be slowly improving after hitting its lowest level in 53 years in April 2026. While the recent uptrend is encouraging, confidence remains fragile, with household debt, cost-of-living pressures and recent interest rate increases still weighing heavily on consumers. The question now is whether this rebound marks the beginning of a genuine recovery, or simply a modest lift from extremely depressed levels. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
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MEDIA
Over the Money Fence – Budget Bombshell – What it Means for Your Money
Roger Montgomery
July 6, 2026
This week I am back with Over The Money Fence with Nicola Dale and Di Edwards.
This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. In this episode, we go through the biggest bombshells from this year’s budget and what the practical implications are for you and your money. I explain why the changes to the budget don’t actually benefit young Australians, and therefore positioning it in this way is simply untrue.
We talk about the hype around SpaceX being publicly listed, overtaking Amazon in market value, and I share my thoughts on whether the hype is real or if this company has been overvalued.
We also discuss private credit funds and why they can be a good investment option for people that want good returns without the volatility of the share market.
I loved having this conversation with Nicola and Di in the studio, helping to make them and our listeners feel more calm and confident about their financial decisions. We hope you enjoy this episode as much as we did.
Tune into past episodes of Over the Money Fence here.
For further information, please contact David Buckland, Chief Executive Officer or Rhodri Taylor, Account Manager on (02) 8046 5000 or investor@montinvest.com. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.
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Turning the page from Fiscal 2026 to Fiscal 2027
David Buckland
July 2, 2026
As we begin Fiscal 2027, it is worth taking a step back to reflect on the major themes that shaped global markets over the past year. I explore the key developments across equities, bonds, interest rates, commodities and currencies, and consider what they may mean for investors going forward.
From Magnificent Seven to Memory Seven
In the three calendar years 2023-2025, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), rose by an average 333 per cent, turning $1.00 into $4.33.
That strong upward trajectory came to an end in the six months to June 2026, with an average decline of 2 per cent. With Microsoft (-23 per cent),Meta (-15 per cent) and Tesla (-6 per cent) leading the fall.
The baton has been passed to the “Memory” sector with an average 419 per cent capital appreciation across seven companies in six months to June 2026 being reported, namely: SanDisk (+858 per cent), Kioxia (+759 per cent), Micron Technology (+304 per cent), SK Hynix (+305 per cent), Intel (+278 per cent), Marvell Technology (+251 per cent) and Samsung (+177 per cent). continue…by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Property.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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Understanding the U.S. debt and liquidity crunch
Roger Montgomery
June 25, 2026
A layman’s guide to CrossBorder Capital’s latest financial outlook.
The core problem: A tsunami of government debt
Macroeconomic research house CrossBorder Capital’s Michael Howell recently summarised the dilemma confronting the U.S. Federal Reserve under newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh.
For most, the use of proprietary indicators and the esoteric interpretations is likely to be skimmed over, but sometimes a bit of additional attention pays dividends. Right now might be one of those junctures.
The U.S. government funds its budget shortfalls by issuing bonds – essentially IOUs to investors. To keep this system running smoothly, two things are required: balance-sheet capacity (the financial ability of large institutions to buy and hold these bonds) and market liquidity (the amount of readily available cash circulating to trade them). continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Nothing to see here
Roger Montgomery
June 24, 2026
According to the most bullish investors the current bull market bears little resemblance to the tech bubble of 1999/2000.
That late-90s tech bubble was fueled by a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), which was reflected in the very high price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples. Today’s bull market is accompanied by much more reasonable valuations suggesting that the rally is merely reflecting an equally steep increase in real earnings.
In early 2000, the tech sector’s forward P/E ratio stood at 55 times, and the broader S&P500 rose to 25 times forward earnings; today, the S&P500 sits on a forward P/E of 20.5 times and the tech sector on 23 times.
The bulls suggest an earnings-driven rally (as reflected in modest P/E ratios) is inherently more sustainable than one built on expanding hope and P/Es. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Navigating the new tax landscape – The shift from capital growth to income yield and the case for private credit
Roger Montgomery
June 22, 2026
The Federal Labor Government’s 2026-27 Budget tax reform package represents the most sweeping overhaul of Australia’s investment tax landscape in nearly three decades. By winding back the traditional pillars of wealth creation – specifically the 50 per cent Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing on established residential property – the government has fundamentally altered the math of investing.
While today’s major policy concessions (including exemptions for testamentary trusts and a step back from sweeping ministerial discretionary powers) provide some targeted relief, the core framework remains intact.
The clear takeaway for investors is a systemic structural shift: the traditional focus on heavily leveraged capital growth has been severely compromised, making high-yielding income generation far more appealing. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Property.
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MEDIA
Firstlinks – Have AI’s four horsemen arrived?
Roger Montgomery
June 19, 2026
In my latest Firstlinks article, I explore whether artificial intelligence (AI) is following the familiar path of past technology bubbles. As businesses shift from AI experimentation to demanding measurable returns, the question becomes whether the trillions spent on AI infrastructure will ultimately generate enough revenue to justify today’s lofty valuations.
You can read the article via Firstlinks here: Have AI’s four horseman arrived? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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ABC The Business – Challenges grow for the retail sector, Glue the latest to close
Roger Montgomery
June 18, 2026
I joined Kirsten Aiken on ABC The Business to discuss the challenges facing Australia’s retail sector. With higher interest rates slowing the economy and uncertainty around proposed tax changes weighing on consumer confidence, spending has softened across age groups. We explored the pressures facing traditional retailers, the accelerating shift to online shopping, the impact of global competitors, and why department stores such as Myer and David Jones continue to face long-term challenges as consumer habits evolve.
Watch here: Challenges grow for the retail sector, Glue the latest to close. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
