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Dear young investor: MINIMISE your contributions to super
Roger Montgomery
September 18, 2023
Back in 2013, I wrote a now infamous article entitled Dear Under 50 Investor. For convenience, I have linked that article at the end of this one. That article made it clear Australians’ superannuation would not be the great source of wealth accumulation for the youth that it once was, and still is, for the older cohort of baby boomers. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Investing Education.
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Two high-quality stocks we own in The Montgomery Funds’ portfolio
David Buckland
August 18, 2023
In this video insight, David Buckland, CEO of Montgomery, and Sean Sequeira, Chief Investment Officer of Australian Eagle Asset Management, discuss the positive impact of Australian Eagle’s partnership with Montgomery. They delve into recent company earnings reports, highlighting Cochlear’s (ASX:COH) return to growth as indicative of its strong business quality and long-term potential, independent of external factors. They also mention QBE’s (ASX:QBE) efforts to improve margins through enhanced risk management for better earnings quality, potentially leading to a higher market rating. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
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The great recession that never was. Should we sound the all-clear? No
Roger Montgomery
August 18, 2023
Panic and speculation about a significant economic downturn in the U.S. have been part of financial discourse over the past year. Many analysts and most economists were expecting a recession, a negative shift in the economic tide, and that fear is what prevented many investors from buying equities and missing out on the gains since November. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Navigating the mortgage cliff: why we’re confident it’s more of a steppingstone than a stumble
Roger Montgomery
August 17, 2023
It was comforting to read CoreLogic’s latest update on the state of the property market in August, which also happens to be the peak month for low fixed-rate mortgages rolling off onto much higher variable rates. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Property.
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Navigating the 2023 August reporting season: earnings estimates and market insights
Roger Montgomery
August 2, 2023
In this week’s video insight, Roger Montgomery discusses the August reporting season for 2023. Earnings estimates are uncertain, and the economy’s strength raises concerns due to inflation and higher interest rates. Company fundamentals take centre stage as macroeconomic factors recede. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Video Insights.
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Unmasking the ‘mortgage cliff’: Are recession fears overblown?
Roger Montgomery
June 26, 2023
With all the talk of recession, we’ve been exploring its probability. As investors, it’s vital to understand which sectors and individual companies are most and least impacted. And helping in that task is appreciating the consumer’s important canary-in-the-coal-mine role. A consumer’s financial position will ultimately determine their propensity to spend on discretionary items and their ability to meet non-discretionary expenses such as utilities and the mortgage, so it is worth understanding each data point. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Evidence of our predicted retail slowdown is mounting
Roger Montgomery
June 22, 2023
Over the course of the last twelve months, we have warned investors off consumer discretionary stocks, consistent with the positioning of our domestic equity funds and the posture of Brett Craig’s private credit funds, which have also been eschewing extending credit to the sector. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Barrenjoey issues its economic outlook – and it’s all a bit grim
Roger Montgomery
April 24, 2023
Recently, our small-cap team listened to Barrenjoey Capital’s chief economist, Jo Masters, discuss the prospects for the Australian economy. In brief, Masters forecasts the economy to slow rapidly and unemployment to rise to five per cent, with a recession the most probable outcome. She also foresees persistent inflation, which will force the RBA to hold interest rates at the current level until May 2024. If she’s right, investors are in for interesting times ahead. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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A note to young investors part 1: Why you should rethink investing in index funds
Roger Montgomery
April 19, 2023
If you’re a younger investor, you’ve likely heard about – and even possibly invested in – index funds, whose promoters argue it’s easier, cheaper, and wiser to stick to investing in broad benchmarks such as the S&P/ASX100 or 200. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education.
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Woosh! Cochlear’s share price growth just hit 10,000 per cent
Sean Sequeira
April 18, 2023
Cochlear (ASX: COH) – the world leader in the profound hearing loss market – is, in our opinion, one of the highest quality companies on the ASX. Since listing in 1995, its share price has grown from $2.50 to around $250. That’s a rise of almost 10,000 per cent! This meteoric rise reflects the company’s ability to deliver consistent double-digit revenue and earnings growth each year. And with its market still significantly underpenetrated, we believe there are many more good years to come. Continue…
by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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Australia – the outlier with a highly levered consumer
David Buckland
March 27, 2023
Early in 2022, the official cash rates for most English-speaking developed economies were at or around zero. This historical low too often pushed many investors, for fear of missing out, into speculating on things they may now have preferred to avoid. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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This too will pass
Roger Montgomery
March 20, 2023
Market and finance commentators have expended enormous energy writing on the subject of the collapse of Silicon Valley, Signature and Silvergate banks, and the subsequent challenges faced by Credit Suisse. And equally expert commentary will soon speculate about who’ll be next and then about those that subsequently do collapse (First Republic Bank anyone?) Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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Time to get back to basics
Roger Montgomery
March 8, 2023
In this week’s video insight Roger discusses his views on what long-term investors should be focused on. Roger believes quality growth companies will ultimately return to popularity and when they do watch out. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Video Insights.
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Cash-strapped borrowers are hammering the housing sector
Roger Montgomery
March 7, 2023
Rising interest rates are already having a major impact on the Australian housing sector. Dwelling approvals are down, an increasing number of off-the-plan buyers are trying to exit their purchases, and furniture and appliance sales are declining. If you’re looking to invest in companies exposed to housing, I’d suggest it’s a case of buyer beware. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Property.
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A tough road ahead for consumer discretionary businesses
David Buckland
March 2, 2023
In late-2022 Australian household deposits were $175 billion above trend, and this “extra cash” was largely in the hands of the 65+ years of age cohort. After many years of financial repression, these older Australians will enjoy earning a more reasonable return on their spare cash. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Why you shouldn’t worry about ‘what comes next’
Roger Montgomery
February 28, 2023
Lately, I’ve seen a number of media reports pondering if world economies – and equity markets – are headed for a soft, hard or no landing. To me, this kind of talk is a bit of a distraction. Because, as a long-term investor, the objective is still the same: to buy quality companies at good prices. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Just how bad will the consumption slowdown be?
David Buckland
February 27, 2023
Continuing to explore the breadth of the expected slowdown in consumption, granular analysis of the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) monthly deposits and the RBA’s October 2022 Financial Stability Review, the following data is worth highlighting. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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I was late to the party, but “I’ve got to contain inflation”
David Buckland
February 22, 2023
“I’ve got to contain inflation. I’ve got to convince the community that we’re serious about that. That’s our job and its unpopular and I accept that”. Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Why I steer clear of whisky – and distillers
Roger Montgomery
February 7, 2023
Just how do you value a company like Lark Distilling (ASX:LRK), whose main asset (award-winning Tasmanian whisky) is locked up for years, but increases in value as it matures. The answer: it’s hard. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.
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Aura Private Credit Insights: Letter to investors 04 October 2022
Brett Craig
October 4, 2022
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary decision now has access to a key datapoint for their meeting today, with the first monthly CPI data (move from quarterly). We may be seeing some positive movement off the back of the RBA’s aggressive rate hiking cycle with household spending beginning to taper, although with inflation still on the rise the RBA will likely be driven to conduct further rate rises over the coming months. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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