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Cash-strapped borrowers are hammering the housing sector
Roger Montgomery
March 7, 2023
Rising interest rates are already having a major impact on the Australian housing sector. Dwelling approvals are down, an increasing number of off-the-plan buyers are trying to exit their purchases, and furniture and appliance sales are declining. If you’re looking to invest in companies exposed to housing, I’d suggest it’s a case of buyer beware. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Property.
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A tough road ahead for consumer discretionary businesses
David Buckland
March 2, 2023
In late-2022 Australian household deposits were $175 billion above trend, and this “extra cash” was largely in the hands of the 65+ years of age cohort. After many years of financial repression, these older Australians will enjoy earning a more reasonable return on their spare cash. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Why you shouldn’t worry about ‘what comes next’
Roger Montgomery
February 28, 2023
Lately, I’ve seen a number of media reports pondering if world economies – and equity markets – are headed for a soft, hard or no landing. To me, this kind of talk is a bit of a distraction. Because, as a long-term investor, the objective is still the same: to buy quality companies at good prices. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Just how bad will the consumption slowdown be?
David Buckland
February 27, 2023
Continuing to explore the breadth of the expected slowdown in consumption, granular analysis of the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) monthly deposits and the RBA’s October 2022 Financial Stability Review, the following data is worth highlighting. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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I was late to the party, but “I’ve got to contain inflation”
David Buckland
February 22, 2023
“I’ve got to contain inflation. I’ve got to convince the community that we’re serious about that. That’s our job and its unpopular and I accept that”. Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Why I steer clear of whisky – and distillers
Roger Montgomery
February 7, 2023
Just how do you value a company like Lark Distilling (ASX:LRK), whose main asset (award-winning Tasmanian whisky) is locked up for years, but increases in value as it matures. The answer: it’s hard. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.
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Aura Private Credit Insights: Letter to investors 04 October 2022
Brett Craig
October 4, 2022
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary decision now has access to a key datapoint for their meeting today, with the first monthly CPI data (move from quarterly). We may be seeing some positive movement off the back of the RBA’s aggressive rate hiking cycle with household spending beginning to taper, although with inflation still on the rise the RBA will likely be driven to conduct further rate rises over the coming months. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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Why mortgage stress could be worse than the RBA thinks
Roger Montgomery
July 28, 2022
The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Michele Bullock, last week offered a cheerful, if not upbeat, interpretation of the circumstances faced by Australian mortgage holders, who are facing the brunt of the RBA’s interest rate rises. For Bullock, and presumably for the RBA, there’s no need to stress. I hope she’s right, but I fear things could get very difficult for a lot of borrowers. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Is Flight Centre part of the recovery theme?
Roger Montgomery
July 27, 2022
In this week’s video insight Roger discusses Flight Centre (ASX:FLT). This week Flight Centre saw its stock jump more than five per cent on the day it declared travel is recovering slightly faster than expected, and consequently, its losses should be smaller. Is the share price prematurely pricing in a recovery? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Video Insights.
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The Polen Capital Global Growth Strategy is now available via BT Panorama
Dean Curnow
April 29, 2022
Our partnership with the U.S. based Polen Capital has evolved since we formally announced the relationship in March last year. Since then, we have launched two of their strategies in Australia with a third, the Polen Capital Global Emerging Markets Growth Fund, in the works. The first strategy, the Polen Capital Global Growth Fund, is now accessible to investors via the BT Panorama platform. The fund is accessible to investors via Netwealth and HUB24 IDPS and Super/Pension. Continue…
by Dean Curnow Posted in Montgomery News and Updates.
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Musical chairs for Australian financial planners in 2021
Dean Curnow
February 21, 2022
If you only look at the headline data published annually by RainmakerLive on changes in the advice industry, 2021 will read much the same as 2020. The exodus from the advice space continued, with total registrations down 11 per cent in 2021, continuing the trend which saw 12 per cent of registered planners leave the industry in 2020. However, if you look underneath this data you will see some interesting trends continuing at the licensee level which are outlined below. Continue…
by Dean Curnow Posted in Financial Services.
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Why I think 2022 will be a very good year for investors
Roger Montgomery
January 5, 2022
A year ago, I wrote an article in The Australian which set out the factors I thought would make it a very good year for equities. So far, the local market has behaved as expected – despite all the turmoil in the world – with the All Ordinaries up 13.6 per cent for the 12 months to 31 December 2021. Looking ahead, I think markets will continue to reward investors, particularly those who invest in quality businesses. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Six companies that have caught my eye in reporting season
Roger Montgomery
August 23, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic, and associated lockdowns, have impacted some businesses very positively, but been less kind on others. These impacts are coming to light in the current FY21 reporting season. Here, I’d like to highlight the results of six companies I’ve been following for a while. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.
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oOh!Media screens as a cheap recovery story
Dominic Rose
June 29, 2021
Economic reopening and cyclical reflation trades have rewarded investors handsomely over the past six months or so, particularly those offering immediate leverage to the stronger than expected demand recovery scenario currently playing out. Continue…
by Dominic Rose Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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What you need to know about NFTs and the blockchain
Roger Montgomery
April 13, 2021
Move over cryptocurrencies. There’s a new kid on the block(chain) – non-fungible tokens (NFTs). And if you’re an investor, you need to know about them. Because there is real money being spent, and fortunes being made. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency.
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Where are Australian SMSFs investing their money?
Dean Curnow
December 14, 2020
According to recent research by Rainmaker, the self-managed super fund (SMSF) market in Australia reached $700 billion as of 30 June 2020. At Montgomery, almost half of our directly invested clients enter under a SMSF and there is no doubt SMSFs are here to stay. Continue…
by Dean Curnow Posted in Investing Education.
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The consumer businesses that should thrive in 2021
Roger Montgomery
November 30, 2020
The COVID-19 lockdowns brought massive changes to consumer behaviour this year. Now, the economic re-opening is bringing a new set of changes. These should benefit many of the consumer businesses that suffered during the lockdowns, thus providing some great opportunities for investors. Let’s look at some of the businesses that should thrive in 2021. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Are Aussie home prices are about to boom?
Roger Montgomery
November 30, 2020
If you think residential real estate in our major cities is already too expensive, then hang onto your hat. Because I think the conditions are right for home prices to explode.
Continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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To Vaccinate your portfolio or not?
Roger Montgomery
October 15, 2020
How to position portfolios for a potential (but not certain) vaccine is currently front of mind here at Montgomery. A vaccine feeds into the ‘reopening’ theme as well as the narrative about a broader economic recovery and companies that are leveraged to it – the ‘economic sensitives’. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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What the Age of Disorder means for investors
Andreas Lundberg
September 16, 2020
As you’ve no doubt noticed, the news these days is awash with reports of social unrest across the world. It’s prompted Deutsche Bank’s global strategists to argue that we’ve entered the Age of Disorder. They point to six major trends that, together, support their thesis – and which could have a big impact on equity returns in coming years. Continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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