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Gen Y winning the spending race
Roger Montgomery
March 22, 2024
The latest e-commerce report from Australia Post simultaneously reinforces what we know about the ineffectiveness of monetary policy and recent Commonwealth Bank household spending insights reports.
The headline data from Australia Post reveals Australians reduced their online spending by 1.2 per cent in calendar year 2023, compared to the year before, to $63.6 billion. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.
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Two big forecasts for 2024 – private credit rising and small caps catching up
Roger Montgomery
January 19, 2024
As we kick off another year of investing, I thought I would offer a couple of predictions. They come thick and fast at this time of year, so rely on them as you might dental floss for security when rock climbing.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Putting today’s market in context
Polen Capital
December 20, 2023
For investors, the last four years have seen some remarkable events, which have had a profound impact on equity markets globally. Volatility has been elevated on both the ups and downs. The global pandemic that began in early 2020 induced a sharp correction as the initial curtailment of day-to-day activity became apparent. This reversed quite rapidly with many listed companies posting outsized gains as they benefitted from changing behaviours. Continue…
by Polen Capital Posted in Global markets, Polen Capital.
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Analysing Australia’s October CPI: Unexpected trends
Brett Craig
December 4, 2023
The latest monthly consumer price index (CPI) read released last week, came in unexpectedly lower than anticipated, at 4.9 per cent in the 12 months to October. This follows the previous read of 5.6 per cent in September. With the 8.4 per cent peak recorded in December, inflation is continuing to follow a downward trend off the back of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) best efforts to raise interest rates in order to achieve a slowdown in inflation. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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Temple & Webster’s share price soars following its AGM update
Roger Montgomery
November 30, 2023
As we monitor the behavior of the Australian consumer, it’s crucial to acknowledge that consumption constitutes approximately 50 per cent of Australia’s GDP, significantly influencing decisions related to interest rates. The robust trading update presented during the annual general meeting (AGM) by Temple & Webster Group (ASX: TPW), an online retailer specialising in furniture and homewares, prompts thoughtful consideration. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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The RBA acknowledges boomers win and mortgagees lose
Roger Montgomery
November 29, 2023
Central banks across the globe find themselves in a challenging predicament, and our own Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces a particularly delicate situation. In Australia, an intricate interplay of demographics and home ownership dynamics creates a paradox where those who bear the brunt of rising interest rates are not the ones fuelling the inflationary fire through their spending habits. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Forget inflation; wineway robbery might be here to stay
Roger Montgomery
November 23, 2023
As a result of the corporatisation of restaurants, there’s a plethora of them. The emergence of the Restaurant Group – Merrivale, Bentley, and The Speakeasy Group are examples which offer a business solution to the cost of independence through bulk buying power (for food and fit-outs) and merged accounting and marketing functions. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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The RBA is in a bind along with mortgagees and renters
Roger Montgomery
November 20, 2023
Just 48 hours after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted rates for the 13th time by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell said at a conference in Washington that “we are not confident” the Fed has tightened enough to bring inflation down to its 2 per cent goal. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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The dawning of a new financial era: The silver lining in rising interest rates
Roger Montgomery
November 3, 2023
There is much debate about whether rates will rise or fall or stay about here for some time – the latter being my personal stance and prediction. Irrespective of our own beliefs, I think we can all agree interest rates aren’t going back to the lows we saw when the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates to zero, and our own Australian banks benefitted from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) term funding facility, which provided three-year funding at 0.1 per cent. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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Population growth in Australia: Opportunities and challenges ahead
Roger Montgomery
October 12, 2023
Australia, known for its stunning landscapes, unique wildlife, and thriving cities, is experiencing a population boom of historic proportions. As of March 31, 2023, our great southern land is home to 26,473,055 individuals. This remarkable figure represents an astonishing increase of 563,205 people in just one year, marking a growth rate of 2.17 per cent. If this pace continues for another quarter, Australia is poised to set a record for its highest annual population growth, and net overseas migration (NOM) is the driving force. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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Have investors considered less dynamism in interest rates?
Roger Montgomery
October 5, 2023
I have a great deal of respect for the team that has been assembled at Barrenjoey, and I have every confidence they will add enormous value to investors through their insights and contribution to the ongoing conversation about the economy and markets. Barrenjoey recently penned a note revealing their outlook for economies and markets, and it’s safe to say, it isn’t the consensus view, which makes it particularly compelling reading. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Stocks We Like.
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Ausbiz – Riding the equity market rollercoaster
Sean Sequeira
October 4, 2023
Sean Sequeira, Chief Investment Officer from our investment partner Australian Eagle Asset Management joined Ausbiz to share his insights into current equity markets, highlighting the substantial impact of bond yields on the volatility in markets. Sean shares some top stand-out performers from reporting season including Cochlear (ASX:COH) in healthcare and Altium (ASX:ALU) in technology, both lauded for their long-term potential and growth prospects. He also notes a potential shift in insurance company QBE (ASX:QBE) that could boost returns. Watch the interview: Riding the equity market rollercoaster
by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like, TV Appearances.
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The RBA’s battle with inflation: Examining the latest data points
Brett Craig
October 3, 2023
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released some important data points last week on the state of inflation and the national accounts. The headline figures did not demonstrate the signs of contraction the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is trying to achieve, however looking into the underlying causes and effects can provide some clarity and sense of optimism. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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How the Polen Capital Global Small and Mid Cap Fund finds under-explored high quality companies
David Buckland
October 3, 2023
In this video insight, I am joined by Rob Forker, the portfolio manager of the Polen Capital Global Small and Mid Cap Fund. We discuss Polen Capital’s strategy of selecting elite companies from a pool of 8000 global stocks based on their five guide rails. Rob also highlights Polen’s approach to investing across the growth spectrum, balancing slower-growing, stable companies like Cochlear with high-growth firms like Globant. Despite the challenging market conditions, Rob remains confident in their strategy, believing that earnings growth will ultimately drive long-term stock price appreciation. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Polen Capital, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
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Retirement planning assumptions and solutions
Roger Montgomery
September 28, 2023
Recently, Morningstar’s director of personal finance, Christine Benz, penned an insightful note explaining some common and dangerous assumptions individuals make when planning for retirement. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education.
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Dear young investor: MINIMISE your contributions to super
Roger Montgomery
September 18, 2023
Back in 2013, I wrote a now infamous article entitled Dear Under 50 Investor. For convenience, I have linked that article at the end of this one. That article made it clear Australians’ superannuation would not be the great source of wealth accumulation for the youth that it once was, and still is, for the older cohort of baby boomers. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Investing Education.
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Two high-quality stocks we own in The Montgomery Funds’ portfolio
David Buckland
August 18, 2023
In this video insight, David Buckland, CEO of Montgomery, and Sean Sequeira, Chief Investment Officer of Australian Eagle Asset Management, discuss the positive impact of Australian Eagle’s partnership with Montgomery. They delve into recent company earnings reports, highlighting Cochlear’s (ASX:COH) return to growth as indicative of its strong business quality and long-term potential, independent of external factors. They also mention QBE’s (ASX:QBE) efforts to improve margins through enhanced risk management for better earnings quality, potentially leading to a higher market rating. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
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The great recession that never was. Should we sound the all-clear? No
Roger Montgomery
August 18, 2023
Panic and speculation about a significant economic downturn in the U.S. have been part of financial discourse over the past year. Many analysts and most economists were expecting a recession, a negative shift in the economic tide, and that fear is what prevented many investors from buying equities and missing out on the gains since November. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Navigating the mortgage cliff: why we’re confident it’s more of a steppingstone than a stumble
Roger Montgomery
August 17, 2023
It was comforting to read CoreLogic’s latest update on the state of the property market in August, which also happens to be the peak month for low fixed-rate mortgages rolling off onto much higher variable rates. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Property.
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Navigating the 2023 August reporting season: earnings estimates and market insights
Roger Montgomery
August 2, 2023
In this week’s video insight, Roger Montgomery discusses the August reporting season for 2023. Earnings estimates are uncertain, and the economy’s strength raises concerns due to inflation and higher interest rates. Company fundamentals take centre stage as macroeconomic factors recede. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Video Insights.
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