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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss rising U.S. bond yields and what higher interest rates could mean for markets. We also explored growing U.S. government debt, competition for capital from the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom, and the warning signs to watch across mortgages, highly leveraged companies and credit markets.

Watch here: The $40 trillion debt problem facing U.S. markets 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I recently read the musings on Substack of a British citizen who is watching “the country I was born in dissolve into a managed, bureaucratic, state-dependent puddle of its former self.” They say, “Britain is not failing. Britain has failed,” and they’ve assembled a comprehensive solution. I wonder to what extent their economic reforms should be applied to Australia. Do you think any of it makes sense for us? Are we failing as a nation? Do these ideas represent solutions? Some ideas would have labels attached to them, such as ‘regressive’ and ‘protectionist’, but forget the labels. You have to look at the whole, not the individual measures, which, of course, is how we got to the mess we are in. Perhaps we need a telescope not a microscope. Would it be better than what we have? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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It’s the question on every investor’s mind: are the hyperscalers spending too much on their infrastructure buildout such that they won’t generate a satisfactory return on capital?

Investors are furiously debating whether the Hyperscalers are overspending.

Recently, ‘Lloyd’ commented on a Livewire blog post about the subject, stating the following: Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this video insight, I explain why I believe investors should look beyond the strong earnings and seemingly reasonable valuations driving enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI). I examine questions surrounding optimistic market assumptions, insider selling incentives, the economics of AI, rising debt levels, weakening cash flows, and whether reported earnings are overstating the sector’s underlying profitability. I also argue that low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios do not necessarily protect markets from significant corrections and suggest the real bubble may lie in AI earnings expectations rather than share prices. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I explore the growing risks facing global markets as cracks emerge across technology, fixed income and inflation. With artificial intelligence (AI) investment increasingly circular, government debt climbing and inflation remaining stubborn, investors may need to prepare for a more volatile and challenging market environment.

Download here: Global markets face reckoning as triple threat fractures appear Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how the rise of passive investing is reshaping markets. With ETFs and index funds now dominating trading, quality-focused active managers are struggling as money flows into the biggest index constituents regardless of valuation or fundamentals. While this trend may continue for some time, market cycles eventually turn, and when they do, companies with strong fundamentals, high-quality balance sheets and durable cash flows are likely to come back into favour.

Watch the episode here: The “profitless rally” Roger thinks could end badly Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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For investors who still think of NRW Holdings (ASX:NWH) as simply a mining contractor, the Financial Year 2026 (FY26) result provides a useful reason to update that view. NRW has developed into a much broader Australian industrial contracting business, providing contract mining, drill-and-blast, engineering, and civil construction services to resources and infrastructure customers. Its activities span Civil, Mining, Minerals, Energy & Technologies and, following the acquisition of Fredon, a growing range of infrastructure-related work. Its exposure now stretches across mining, public infrastructure, data centres, defence, health and renewables. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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Codan (ASX:CDA)  is an Australian technology company that designs, develops, manufactures and markets communications and metal-detection equipment. Its two main operating segments are Communications and Metal Detection. Within those businesses sit brands and operations including DTC, Zetron and Minelab, giving Codan exposure to tactical and defence communications, unmanned systems, public-safety communications and gold detection. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the Big Mac Index and how it uses the concept of purchasing power parity to assess whether currencies appear overvalued or undervalued. We also explored why the index has limitations as a measure of fair value, what it suggests about the Australian dollar, and the important differences between market pullbacks, corrections and crashes, highlighting why short-term volatility is a normal part of investing.

Listen in from 1:47:03: ABC Statewide Drive

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Radio.

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In this video I discuss Aussie Broadband (ASX: ABB), a growing challenger in Australia’s retail broadband market with around 15 per cent of the NBN market across its retail and wholesale services.

The company has delivered double-digit organic sales growth alongside acquisitions, while increasing scale may support further growth and operating efficiencies. Earnings are expected to grow over the next two years, supported by a cashflow-generative business and relatively low gearing.

While concerns around competition from Starlink have recently weighed on the share price, I explain why the current valuation may offer an attractive entry point if ABB continues to execute on its growth strategy. Continue…

by Gary Rollo Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.

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