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For as long as I have been around, the local supermarket and grocery store were the bastions of “what you see is what you get.” You picked up a jar of Vegemite or a tin of baked beans, looked at the price sticker stuck on the lid or the paper tag on the shelf, and you knew exactly what you were going to pay when you arrived at the checkout. 

But if companies and their board members have their way, that certainty will soon evaporate. And it will be replaced with something far more fluid, algorithmic, and, quite frankly, offensive and invasive and designed to handicap you.

It is called Surveillance Pricing, and if the government allows it, it will be the icing on the cake of the rip-off society we now live in, where Aussies are constantly shafting other Aussies. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In this video insight, I explain why, while economists continue debating whether a recession is coming, many Australians are already living through one, as falling retail volumes, reduced discretionary spending and rising everyday costs take hold. Drawing on real-world examples from business owners and households, I highlight how shrinking disposable income is driving cutbacks, before outlining practical steps to prepare, including reducing non-essential spending, paying down high-cost debt and protecting your primary source of income. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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Before I begin; I use the term ‘workers’ in this article. It’s not intended to be disparaging. It’s a reference to a label that the Labor Government gives their core constituency. It’s the voting base Labor frequently refers to and says they support.

The 2026 Federal budget may offer an insight into Labor’s logic:

‘Tax the asset to fund their so-called ‘worker’, so that worker can buy an asset.’

The problem?

They haven’t solved a generational divide; I believe they’ve just designed a wealth-recycling machine where the Government takes a service fee at every turn.

If we look a bit closer, we find a paradox. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.

The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I recently wrote an article for The Australian, titled, How AI boom and a liquidity crisis are threatening to upend markets. It garnered quite a few comments highlighting a range of opinions about where artificial intelligence (AI) is headed and where it might be taking humanity.

The “AI Revolution” is being sold to us as either a sleek, inevitable future of effortless productivity or one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse bringing destruction to humanity, first by laying waste to the workforce. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I think a lot about how higher-yielding income products, such as the Aura Private Credit Income Fund and the Aura Core Income Fund, might fit in a retiree’s portfolio and how to articulate that. 

It’s a challenge to explain, primarily because we don’t know the future. We don’t know how long we’ll live; we don’t know when/if the stock market might crash, and therefore we don’t know how much we can withdraw each year from our retirement savings because we don’t know how much we will spend in retirement, nor how much we’ll actually have left each year.

It leaves many investors paralysed; “I’ll worry about it tomorrow.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.

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I have been challenging my own thinking on this subject, and I am eager to distil the debate into the primary arguments, which are defined by a profound division.

That division mainly pits a sceptical public, the media, and some investors against an optimistic and arguably self-serving Silicon Valley, populated by tech pioneers and billionaires.

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 April 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In my latest video insight, I explain why I believe the budget could fundamentally reshape property investing in Australia. Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax may discourage investment in established properties, slow housing and credit growth, and create unintended consequences for banks, property-related businesses and younger Australians trying to build wealth.

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property, Video Insights.

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Throughout history, there’s been a tidal quality to the flow of capital because there is a tidal quality to the human condition. Every new technology, after welding on its inventors, attracts its devotees who, believing – often correctly – the tech will change the world, become the pied pipers for many more investors. If they’re successful, they generate a groundswell of financial, government, and social support that converge to drive their vision and their wealth, often to heights that natural laws cannot support. 

That intersection of innovation and capital is a phenomenon that has long fascinated. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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If you’ve been watching the news lately, you’ve seen the script: The Middle East is a tinderbox, the Strait of Hormuz is a “no-go” zone, and $120 oil is an inevitability according to JP Morgan.

But if you look at the facts and the data, the story falls apart.

Despite the headlines, oil is struggling to hold its gains. Why? Because the “New World Order” of energy isn’t being built in Tehran or Riyadh. It’s being built in North and South Americas and the “war” we’re watching looks more like a managed liquidation of the old guard than a global catastrophe. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Market commentary.

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