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Bullish investors believe AI is a new, infinite fourth factor of a nation’s production and wealth creation. In the past, we had labour, capital and land as production inputs, all of which were, of course, finite. Land provided the raw materials, labour the muscle and the mind to transform them, and capital was the tool.

Enter AI. The transformative aspect of this fourth ingredient is that, unlike the physical limitations of land or the finite hours of the human workforce, data is a resource that is functionally unlimited. And, importantly, it’s the only factor of production that actually grows more abundant the more we use it.

This article was first published in The Australian on 27 May 2026.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Inflation seems to be the topic du joúr. Perhaps surprisingly, however, is the variety of opinions, even on the same day.

Economists, strategists and analysts don’t seem to be able to agree on anything regarding inflation (except for the current number), even on the same day (in this case, today the 28th of May 2026) – even when presented with the same data.  

Here is just a small selection of comments about inflation that arrived in my inbox this morning, and as you will see, facts are open to interpretation. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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As the list of bears publicly declaring the end of the stock market’s bull run grows, so does the wave of charts, indicators and correlations used to explain or justify the growing chorus of crash predictions.

The bear camp’s advocates now include, most vocally, Scott Galloway, Ray Dalio and Michael Burry, and perhaps more reservedly, Torsten Sløck. Others in the bear camp include Jim Rogers and Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australian consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in more than five decades, despite relatively low unemployment (around 4.3 per cent compared to over 11 per cent in the 1990s) and interest rates (around 4.1 per cent compared to 17.5 per cent in the 1990s), with the key drivers being a sharp rise in household debt (now about 180 per cent of disposable income versus roughly 45 per cent four to five decades ago) and an intense cost-of-living squeeze across housing, childcare (around $180 per day), education (something that used to be free), and everyday expenses. I also highlighted how this pressure is contributing to a hollowing out of the middle class and increasing postcode-driven inequality, while noting that periods of extremely weak sentiment can sometimes create opportunities for long-term investors as fear drives short-term market dislocations.
Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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If you’ve been following our blogs and Montgomery Minutes about noted short seller Michael Burry, you’ll know he’s been making headlines this year for shorting the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Late last week, he reported he has again increased those short bets.

If you haven’t been following our posts on the subject, Michael Burry is the former chief of the now-closed hedge fund manager Scion Asset Management and was immortalised by Michael Lewis in his 2010 book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, which reported on Burry’s large asymmetric bets against the 2008 U.S. housing bubble. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Based on the 2026–27 Federal Budget, the Australian Government expects its comprehensive tax reform package – anchored by changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and negative gearing – to raise just over $40 billion over 10 years. On an annual basis, this averages approximately $4 billion, though revenue will increase from a lower base over time due to the grandfathering and transitional rules built into the legislation.

As an aside, it has triggered widespread condemnation because, despite the changes being so significant, they weren’t taken to an election. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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I recently read a fascinating Substack explaining why “Champagne Socialism” is now the ultimate luxury belief.

The post implies the ultimate status symbol for today’s elite isn’t a yacht or a luxury watch; it is a loud, performative nod to radical left-leaning politics.

While the term isn’t new, today’s manifestation of the Champagne Socialist is deeply insidious because it’s a dynamic familiar to the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and its socialist/Labor Left factions, yet one that alienates and financially ruins the working class that Labor claims to champion. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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SpaceX has some real businesses, but if I am completely lucid, I’d say there’s no business that would support its US$2 trillion valuation.

While the headlines are made by rockets and SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9, which has radically changed the economics of sending cargo into orbit, slashing launch costs by 85 per cent to roughly US$2,700 per kilogram, it is Starlink that generated US$11 billion of last year’s US$18 billion in revenue. 

In fact, sending rockets into space doesn’t do a lot for the company’s finances. Indeed, SpaceX generates more revenue from renting out its NVIDIA chips to Anthropic than it does from rockets. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss why oil prices may be giving investors a false sense of calm. While markets expect Middle East tensions to ease, the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the need to eventually replenish those supplies could create the conditions for a sharp spike in oil prices, with implications for inflation, interest rates and share markets.

Tune in from 1:45:16: ABC Statewide Drive Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss the 2026 Federal Budget and whether changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and negative gearing could ultimately create unintended consequences for younger Australians. While the reforms are aimed at improving housing affordability, I explained why reduced incentives for investors and forecasts for fewer homes to be built could place further pressure on supply and long-term wealth creation. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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