With the coronavirus officially being declared a pandemic we bring you this special edition of our video insight discussing how we are handling current market conditions at Montgomery. Today the first order concern is the impact of the virus on populations, the second is the consequences of containment efforts on economic growth, and third are the consequences of protracted lockdowns on the cash flows of businesses. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Montgomery News and Updates, Video Insights.

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After recording an excellent performance in the June 2019 half-year, both the US Nasdaq and S&P 500 led the way in the December 2019 half-year with a return of 12.1 per cent and 9.8 per cent, respectively, for a return over calendar 2019 of 35.2 per cent (US Nasdaq) and 28.9 per cent (S&P 500).  And this excludes dividends. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight Roger provides an update on the coronavirus. With the death toll now more than 2,700 and more than 80,000 global cases. Additionally, the Mayor of San Francisco has declared a state of emergency, hotels are in lockdown in Italy and Austria, and the virus is spreading in Iran, Croatia and Switzerland.  Other than the last two days of selling, markets have been relatively sanguine about the coronavirus with the S&P500 hitting record highs just last week. Why? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Video Insights.

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Around the world, plunging interest rates have led to a stampede by investors into risk assets, like shares and property. With the prices of these assets now looking quite inflated, investors need to do more research than ever to find under-valued assets. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Looking purely from an investing perspective, the global sell-off caused by the coronavirus pandemic could be manna from heaven for cashed-up value investors. I think we’re about to see some wonderful buying opportunities. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.

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One of the biggest questions facing equity investors today is when and how to deploy surplus cash that they may have available. This is a question we have studied extensively in recent weeks, and while we can offer no definitive answers, some tentative conclusions may help to inform this decision. With that in mind, we set out here a summary of key points coming out of our analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic to date, and some thoughts on what might lie ahead. Continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Market commentary.

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There’s the Coronavirus pandemic and then there’s the associated panic. Both will have an impact on near term investment returns and as I write this note, the ASX200 price index has swung 13 per cent down from its January high. But the pandemic and the panic will also provide level-headed investors with an opportunity. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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With the Australian market in freefall, readers and clients alike have asked us where we are looking to invest. While we continue to monitor the fluid situation closely, we have established some key criteria that we would look to satisfy in anticipation of a potential recovery. Continue…

by Joseph Kim Posted in Market commentary.

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In the current environment of ultra-low interest rates, generating enough income for retirement can be challenging. Instead of being able to add to their nest egg, many retirees find themselves needing to withdraw capital to make up a shortfall between their lifestyle requirements and their income. Meanwhile, if you receive income from an annuity, those payments will also come from the capital in your investment portfolio. With less capital available it becomes harder to weather market volatility. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Whitepapers.

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In this week’s video insight, Andrew Macken reviews the recent changes to our global portfolios. Our concerns surrounding how COVID-19 will impact the US in particular have significantly grown from what they once were. This translates into a much more significant – and relatively longer lasting – downside risk in US aggregate demand than we had previously assessed. Though we certainly hope we are wrong, we now believe we were overestimating the preparedness of many western governments and are therefore facing the possibility of a crisis-in-confidence in these governments.

“Humans tends to be averse to change. It can be surprising, unsettling – even scary.  While I realise we may attract criticism for changing our thinking and our positions, we have done so on the basis that we believe it is the right thing to do for the people who have entrusted their capital to us.” Andrew Macken

by Andrew Macken Posted in Montgomery News and Updates, Video Insights.

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