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Every few years – usually after gold has enjoyed a significant rally (the narrative always comes after the fact) – headlines pop up with increasingly bold predictions: “Gold is going to US$20,000 an ounce!”

To anyone outside the financial world, and with gold trading at about US$3,285 an ounce as of 16 April 2025, that sounds like hitting the jackpot – especially if you’re already holding some gold.

But before you imagine retiring early, there’s some useful concepts to understand with respect to the drivers of gold’s price. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Retirement planning is a puzzle that leaves many scratching their heads, wondering, “How much is enough?” Ask Google that question, and out spews a hundred different opinions, many written to avoid offence. Even the experts don’t always agree. From ambitious pre-retirement targets to debates about how our spending patterns change as we age, there are as many plans for retirement as people providing them. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.

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Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) (formerly Woodside Petroleum Ltd) is Australia’s largest independent dedicated oil and gas exploration and production company. With its share price down 46 per cent since September 2023, it might pay investors to understand the transformation occurring at the company and the reason it is now a three per cent position in The Montgomery Fund and a 2.3 per cent position in The Montgomery [Private] Fund. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Energy / Resources, Stocks We Like.

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Heidi Cuthbert’s article, “Why no one really wants to fix the housing crisis,” (21 March 2025), offers a sobering look at Australia’s escalating housing affordability crisis. Cuthbert highlights the rather staggering statistic that median mortgage repayments now consume just over 50 per cent of household income, and in doing so, underscores the severity of the issue. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Property.

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Labor’s resounding victory at the weekend’s Federal Election, securing a second term with a strengthened parliamentary majority, defied predictions of a close contest, possibly reflects the idealism of a new generation of voters, and grants Labor a mandate to advance a socialist policy agenda.

Victoria’s fiscal challenges however are the result of a long-term Labor government running a socialist agenda that has now run out of other people’s money. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Market commentary.

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TUAS (ASX:TUA) (pronounced ‘Too-as’) is a company we have written about on the blog several times. Back in April 2024 on a ‘Spark you F.I.R.E’ podcast with Jazz Sidana, I noted that it was difficult to establish a confident valuation on this company (which at the time held a share price of $3.84) given the lack of sufficient information available. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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In 2023 and 2024, I wrote several blog posts positing that Tesla may be just another car company. A couple of example articles can be found here and here.

The share price of Tesla on the date of those two blog posts was about US$274.00 and US$171.00, respectively. The price of Tesla shares, thanks in no small part to Trump’s election as U.S. President and Elon Musk’s pre-election support, subsequently rallied to over US$400.00 per share, and after a more recent 50 per cent decline, the price as of 7 April 2025 is US$239.43. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing.

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Sales of new vehicles in Australia depict a clouded and muted picture. The market has faced its seventh decline in the last eight months, with February sales down 7.9 per cent compared to the same period last year. However, it’s important to note that the February 2025 figures represent the second highest February volume on record, surpassed only by last year. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing.

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Given the ructions in markets lately – addressing current market conditions, sentiment and their drivers is helpful and warranted.

It was the depth and scale of U.S. President Donald Trump’s much-anticipated tariffs that caught investors by surprise, as well as the tariffs’ calibration to trade deficits and the ambiguity around U.S. willingness to negotiate swiftly. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Overnight, U.S. President Trump backflipped on punitive global tariffs, bringing them down to a universal 10 per cent except for China, against which tariffs were raised from 104 per cent to 125 per cent. 

Equity markets breathed a sigh of relief but is the coast clear? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.

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