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The four horsemen of the Apocalypse are Conquest, War, Famine, and Death. Artificial intelligence (AI) has ‘Conquered’; in the Middle East, ‘War’ is underway and could take years to resolve, and changes afoot in enterprise-level AI spending would be akin to ‘Famine’ for AI hyperscalers that have spent trillions on scaling out the technology. All that awaits is the ‘Death’ of the AI bubble. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Trump recently boasted on Truth Social of the US$45 billion he made for the U.S. by investing in Intel. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this week’s video insight, I take a closer look at the upcoming SpaceX IPO and some of the concerns being raised by critics. While many investors expect the listing to be a major success, I explore questions around the company’s unprecedented valuation, the folding of other Elon Musk ventures into SpaceX, rule changes that could accelerate its inclusion in major indices, and whether forced buying by index funds may help drive the share price higher. I also discuss the risk that early investors and insiders could benefit most, while everyday investors are left carrying the long-term risks. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how markets have responded to the recent Middle East conflict, noting that history shows geopolitical shocks often lead to short, sharp sell-offs followed by relatively quick recoveries as investors refocus on earnings and opportunities. I also highlighted that defence and modern warfare technology stocks have been key beneficiaries, while investors who remain disciplined or hold cash can take advantage of volatility, with history suggesting that even if markets weaken, downturns are often followed by strong rebounds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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While many of us here in Australia are left aghast after spending any time doom-scrolling through the latest chaotic headlines from the Republican Administration in the United States, a far more immediate and flagrant brand of political decay is festering closer to home, in the state of Victoria.

It is a curious phenomenon of modern life that we are often more outraged by a tweet from Washington than by the systematic erosion of integrity in our own backyard, yet after twelve years of Labor government, the Garden State has become a case study in self-interest and institutionalised corruption.

Last week, Victoria’s Liberals and Nationals introduced a bill to give Victoria’s anti-corruption watchdog, Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC), the powers it has been asking for since 2017 – the power to follow the money and investigate $15 billion of corruption in the Big Build. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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If you were thinking of buying a, say, a $2 million property to renovate and flip in 18 months, Labor’s 2026 budget just made that a perilous strategy, while also making investing in an AA rated Private Credit Fund way more attractive.

The 2026 Federal Budget has significantly shifted the goalposts for you. If you haven’t signed a contract yet, you are stepping into a very different tax environment than the one that existed last week.

In the current 2026 climate, a private credit fund returning 7.22 per cent as at 31 March 2026*, is almost certainly the superior choice for a $2 million allocation over an 18-month horizon.

*Returns are net of fees and assumes reinvestment of distributions. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. Inception date 4 October 2022. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Property.

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When investors are confident, greater risk is taken, greater debt levels are serviced, and greater liquidity is prevalent. And the opposite is also true.  The response to a loss of confidence is to reduce risk, pay down debt, and “batten down the hatches”. Liquidity can quickly get tight.

When the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey for the week to Sunday 22 March 2026 was released, I thought it was worth highlighting, given consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since records began in 1973 (1). Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Travellers to Switzerland overwhelmingly describe the alpine nation as breathtaking, safe, and efficient – a dream destination with dreamlike Alpine landscapes. Those with a keen eye will also notice that one of the most beautiful places they have ever visited is

expensive, but it’s clean, the public transport is punctual, and the villages are charming. I have often heard friends return with the phrase “Everything just works”. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets.

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Pivots galore

Few global macroeconomists have carried as much recent optimism as Ed Yardeni, who, as president of Yardeni Research, has spent the better part of this decade championing a ‘Roaring 2020s’ thesis – a nod to the roaring 1920s, on the back of productivity gains, technological innovation, and a resilient American consumer, Yardeni’s thesis has included a very bullish end to 2026.

In an interview with Thoughtful Money, however, Yardeni pivoted. While not abandoning his longer-term bullish base case entirely, the war in the Middle East, seems to have influenced a bit of a capitulation. He has also increased his probability of a recession from 20 per cent to 35 per cent, on the back of geopolitical volatility and the return of ‘bond market vigilantes’ – the latter being a term Yardeni famously coined in the 1980s to describe investors who protest inflationary fiscal policy by selling bonds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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I was fascinated by this morning’s Australian Financial Review (AFR) article, which pointed out markets appear to be disconnected from reality in the Middle East.

Comparing the current and more disruptive war in the Middle East to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which was far less disruptive to energy markets, the author notes:

“Back in 2022, Brent crude peaked at $US139 a barrel, compared with $US102 now. Back then, European gas peaked at €339 a megawatt hour, compared with €51 now. Back then, the price of urea, an oil by-product vital in the production of fertilisers, peaked at $US910 a tonne, compared with $US660 now. Back then, the S&P 500 fell 25 per cent peak-to-trough. Today, the index is down just 5.5 per cent from its January record high.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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