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A peace deal between Iran and the United States has transformed the outlook for global markets – at least for now.

I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed, to discuss which sectors stand to benefit most from falling oil prices, why airlines, retailers and property stocks could outperform, and why history suggests investors should be cautious despite the optimism.

I also touch on the extraordinary valuation of SpaceX, why Elon Musk may be the greatest marketer the world has ever seen, and the surprising role Google may have played ahead of the company’s IPO.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel.

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In late March 2026, the ANZ Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Index hit the lowest level since the survey began in the early 1970s. 

Last week (5 April 2026), it rallied to the second worst week on record, as motorists received a $0.26 per litre reduction in the fuel excise.  And this week, I’m confident it will rally further on the back of the provisional ceasefire between the USA and Iran and the announcement of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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The four horsemen of the Apocalypse are Conquest, War, Famine, and Death. Artificial intelligence (AI) has ‘Conquered’; in the Middle East, ‘War’ is underway and could take years to resolve, and changes afoot in enterprise-level AI spending would be akin to ‘Famine’ for AI hyperscalers that have spent trillions on scaling out the technology. All that awaits is the ‘Death’ of the AI bubble. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this week’s video insight, I take a closer look at the upcoming SpaceX IPO and some of the concerns being raised by critics. While many investors expect the listing to be a major success, I explore questions around the company’s unprecedented valuation, the folding of other Elon Musk ventures into SpaceX, rule changes that could accelerate its inclusion in major indices, and whether forced buying by index funds may help drive the share price higher. I also discuss the risk that early investors and insiders could benefit most, while everyday investors are left carrying the long-term risks. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.

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Trump recently boasted on Truth Social of the US$45 billion he made for the U.S. by investing in Intel. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how markets have responded to the recent Middle East conflict, noting that history shows geopolitical shocks often lead to short, sharp sell-offs followed by relatively quick recoveries as investors refocus on earnings and opportunities. I also highlighted that defence and modern warfare technology stocks have been key beneficiaries, while investors who remain disciplined or hold cash can take advantage of volatility, with history suggesting that even if markets weaken, downturns are often followed by strong rebounds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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For the last three years, the corporate world’s relationship with artificial intelligence (AI) has been a lot like a toddler taking its first steps, or maybe a baby monkey trying to work out what to do with a camera.

Initially, there was The Era of Scaling and Praying (2022–2025), a typical phase after the invention of nearly every General Purpose Technology (GPT) since the railroad. During this period, tech giants invested hundreds of billions in infrastructure, creating huge engines even before knowing if their products would be useful or how they’d be operated. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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If you were thinking of buying a, say, a $2 million property to renovate and flip in 18 months, Labor’s 2026 budget just made that a perilous strategy, while also making investing in an AA rated Private Credit Fund way more attractive.

The 2026 Federal Budget has significantly shifted the goalposts for you. If you haven’t signed a contract yet, you are stepping into a very different tax environment than the one that existed last week.

In the current 2026 climate, a private credit fund returning 7.22 per cent as at 31 March 2026*, is almost certainly the superior choice for a $2 million allocation over an 18-month horizon.

*Returns are net of fees and assumes reinvestment of distributions. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. Inception date 4 October 2022. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Property.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss what history tells us about oil-price spikes and share markets, and why falling oil prices are not always positive for equities. We also explored the growing excitement around SpaceX, including the bullish case for the company, concerns about its proposed IPO structure, and why investors should be cautious of getting caught up in market hype. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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When investors are confident, greater risk is taken, greater debt levels are serviced, and greater liquidity is prevalent. And the opposite is also true.  The response to a loss of confidence is to reduce risk, pay down debt, and “batten down the hatches”. Liquidity can quickly get tight.

When the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey for the week to Sunday 22 March 2026 was released, I thought it was worth highlighting, given consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since records began in 1973 (1). Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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