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Trump recently boasted on Truth Social of the US$45 billion he made for the U.S. by investing in Intel. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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The latest property data confirm that Australian national aggregate home prices declined by 0.3 per cent to 0.4 per cent in June 2026 – marking the third consecutive month of declines and pushing values roughly 0.9 per cent below their autumn peak.

The downturn is being felt most acutely by the major capital cities; over the June quarter, Sydney and Melbourne slumped by 2.9 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively, while Adelaide and Brisbane have completely flattened out.

And it’s not just prices plunging. The price correction is mirrored by a dramatic collapse in auction clearance rates, which plummeted to a six-year low in late June, hovering below the 50 per cent threshold at a weighted national average of roughly 47 per cent to 48 per cent –levels not seen since the initial economic shocks of the pandemic in April 2020. Labor’s impact on property is as significant as a global pandemic. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Property.

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Proposed changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax (CGT) and new Australian Taxation Office (ATO) rules for holiday homes could significantly alter the economics of property investing in Australia. By reducing the tax advantages associated with property ownership, the changes may weaken demand across several investor groups and influence property prices over time.

Drawing on supply and demand principles, this whitepaper paper examines how investors, rentvesters, property flippers, holiday homeowners and discretionary trusts could be affected. It also explores the potential impact on borrowing capacity, resale demand and the attractiveness of established residential property compared with new builds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Popular, Property, Whitepapers.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss what history tells us about oil-price spikes and share markets, and why falling oil prices are not always positive for equities. We also explored the growing excitement around SpaceX, including the bullish case for the company, concerns about its proposed IPO structure, and why investors should be cautious of getting caught up in market hype. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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As we begin Fiscal 2027, it is worth taking a step back to reflect on the major themes that shaped global markets over the past year. I explore the key developments across equities, bonds, interest rates, commodities and currencies, and consider what they may mean for investors going forward.

From Magnificent Seven to Memory Seven

In the three calendar years 2023-2025, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), rose by an average 333 per cent, turning $1.00 into $4.33.

That strong upward trajectory came to an end in the six months to June 2026, with an average decline of 2 per cent. With Microsoft (-23 per cent),Meta (-15 per cent) and Tesla (-6 per cent) leading the fall.

The baton has been passed to the “Memory” sector with an average 419 per cent capital appreciation across seven companies in six months to June 2026 being reported, namely: SanDisk (+858 per cent), Kioxia (+759 per cent), Micron Technology (+304 per cent), SK Hynix (+305 per cent), Intel (+278 per cent), Marvell Technology (+251 per cent) and Samsung (+177 per cent). Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Property.

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I was fascinated by this ABC article, which welcomed the federal Labor Government’s expected changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax in the 2026 Budget. While the article focuses heavily on tax policy as the lever for change, it largely omits the supply-side pressures of record migration and high construction costs. It also ignores the massive burden Labor’s massive and unbridled spending has on the budget, ensuring the young are locked in to paying off the debt for decades to come. Finally, it ignores the fact that when the older generation have taken out a mortgage to fund a rental property investment, they are reducing their burden on social welfare, specifically the government funded pension. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the recent sell-off in technology shares and why rising interest rates, weakening cash flows and growing questions around artificial intelligence (AI) economics may be shifting investor sentiment. We explored how reported earnings across the major AI companies may be overstating the underlying picture, why relatively modest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios do not necessarily rule out a market correction, and why diversification remains important in an increasingly uncertain environment.

Listen from 1:44:13: ABC Statewide Drive  

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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If you were thinking of buying a, say, a $2 million property to renovate and flip in 18 months, Labor’s 2026 budget just made that a perilous strategy, while also making investing in an AA rated Private Credit Fund way more attractive.

The 2026 Federal Budget has significantly shifted the goalposts for you. If you haven’t signed a contract yet, you are stepping into a very different tax environment than the one that existed last week.

In the current 2026 climate, a private credit fund returning 7.22 per cent as at 31 March 2026*, is almost certainly the superior choice for a $2 million allocation over an 18-month horizon.

*Returns are net of fees and assumes reinvestment of distributions. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. Inception date 4 October 2022. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Property.

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Travellers to Switzerland overwhelmingly describe the alpine nation as breathtaking, safe, and efficient – a dream destination with dreamlike Alpine landscapes. Those with a keen eye will also notice that one of the most beautiful places they have ever visited is

expensive, but it’s clean, the public transport is punctual, and the villages are charming. I have often heard friends return with the phrase “Everything just works”. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets.

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Higher global inflation and lower growth will reflect the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U.S./Iran war. 

The near-term forecasts for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) use a Reference Scenario, Adverse Scenario and a Severe Scenario, as illustrated in Graph 1 below. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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