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Is AI the Boogeyman?
Roger Montgomery
September 23, 2026
Recently, in an AXIOS email with the subject line, “Not too late,” the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote, “The White House, Congress and the country’s leading AI companies have allowed AI to grow faster, stronger, more powerful and wildly lucrative (and dangerous), with no serious effort to control it or spread the benefits beyond the super-wealthy, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in a “Behind the Curtain” column. It’s not too late to change this. But if they all dither, duck, or dance around it, the chances of AI worst-case scenarios will explode, likely early next year, according to almost everyone we talk to privately who truly understands AI.” Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Market state of play – and what to do
Roger Montgomery
August 25, 2026
Well into the penultimate quarter of the calendar year, institutional and private investors face the paradox that record infrastructure capital expenditure, particularly by AI hyperscalers, coexists with heightened geopolitical risk, sticky inflation, and an apparent structural shift to the relationship between equities and bonds.
And if institutions are changing their asset allocations to reflect these shifts, should private investors do the same? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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NRW Holdings: The contractor that keeps finding another leg of growth
Roger Montgomery
September 8, 2026
For investors who still think of NRW Holdings (ASX:NWH) as simply a mining contractor, the Financial Year 2026 (FY26) result provides a useful reason to update that view. NRW has developed into a much broader Australian industrial contracting business, providing contract mining, drill-and-blast, engineering, and civil construction services to resources and infrastructure customers. Its activities span Civil, Mining, Minerals, Energy & Technologies and, following the acquisition of Fredon, a growing range of infrastructure-related work. Its exposure now stretches across mining, public infrastructure, data centres, defence, health and renewables. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.
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Hyperscaler cash flow mirage
Roger Montgomery
September 24, 2026
It may initially seem a stretch to claim the financial quality of your retirement beyond 2026 might depend on the outcome of some heroic assumptions about Hyperscaler artificial intelligence (AI) cash flows.
But is it?
Equity markets, and especially investors in U.S. stocks – of which there is a record number investing a record amount – are ignoring a litany of concerns. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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A value investor’s framework for AI
Roger Montgomery
August 25, 2026
If you haven’t noticed already, allow me to point out that investment discussions about artificial intelligence (AI) frequently devolve into almost insulting debates between AI evangelists, who cite massive total addressable markets (TAM) and explosive user growth, and sceptics, pointing to trillions of dollars in capital expenditure (capex), a buildout based on speculation, exorbitant compute costs, and an unclear path to profitability.
Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern professor and widely respected value investor, believes this debate has largely gone off the rails, noting in a recent post, “The debate about AI, in my view, has gone off the track with advocates and sceptics often talking past each other”. Optimists cherry-pick usage metrics, while pessimists focus on heavy spending, with both sides ignoring the rigorous business analysis that needs to take place in the middle. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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The arithmetic of Victoria: The pothole state
Roger Montgomery
August 24, 2026
In public finance, there is a simple truth that ideologues spend years trying to evade: Eventually, the numbers catch up with you.
Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when I was studying at University in Melbourne, the economic mismanagement of the Kane and Kirner Labor governments reduced what was then called the Garden State to an economic basket case.
Decades later and Labor has done it again, hitting Victoria hard.
When Labor came to power there in 2014, the state’s debt was $21.8 billion. Today, it exceeds $160 billion and is rapidly approaching $200 billion, making Victoria one of Australia’s heaviest financial ball-and-chains. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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Overseas ownership continues at pace
David Buckland
August 19, 2026
In recent days, we have seen three ASX listed companies receive offers by private equity, and in each case, it appears their ownership will likely head overseas.
I Squared Capital
New York based “Sophisticated and long-term infrastructure investor”, I Squared Capital has bid $1.70 per share for oOh!media Limited (ASX: OML), thus valuing the company at over $1.0 billion in Enterprise Value (EV), including the $130 million of net debt as at June 2026. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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The ingredients are in place for Aussie consumers to “rein it in”
David Buckland
August 20, 2026
As I have written many times, Australia’s Household Debt to Disposable Income Ratio has jumped more than fourfold to around 180 per cent over the past 50 years, making us one of the more indebted societies of the 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.
Preeminent financial journalist of many decades, Robert Gottliebsen, recently argued a 10 per cent decline in house prices was the equivalent to around three 0.25 per cent interest rate increases for the average Australian consumer. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The AI spending spree investors should fear
Roger Montgomery
September 3, 2026
On Ausbiz today, I discussed why the artificial intelligence (AI) boom may be reaching a crossroads. I looked at the enormous capital being deployed by hyperscalers, falling free cash flow and rising depreciation, and why growing competition and higher funding costs could make it increasingly difficult for these companies to generate sufficient returns on their AI investment.
Watch here: The AI spending spree investors should fearby Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The playbook for a higher-inflation world
Roger Montgomery
October 1, 2026
I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss persistent inflation in the U.S., the impact of rising wages and services costs, and why the Federal Reserve may have limited room to ease rates. We also explored the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout, growing demand for capital and the pressure higher borrowing costs could place on hyperscalers, before discussing how private credit may fit within a higher-inflation environment. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
What do U.S. rising interest rates mean for Australia? Find out here.
