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Australia’s housing crisis has reached a tipping point, but listening to the federal government, you’d be forgiven for thinking everything is running smoothly and under control!

2026 would have to be the first year the budget is still in the headlines three months after it was delivered. And that’s because it is proving to be an unmitigated disaster for the economy, investors, and homeowners, and now renters.

At the centre of the latest policy storm is the Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Housing Minister Clare O’Neil’s insistence – backed by Treasury ‘modelling’ – that recent tax adjustments impacting property investors will lead to a mere $2-a-week rent increase.

As an aside, we have to remember the almost universal failure of all modelling Labor has relied on, from electricity bill reductions of $275 by 2025 to house prices rising by a gentle two per cent. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property.

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Australia’s August reporting season is now underway, with investors turning their attention from macroeconomic headlines to what ultimately matters most over the long term: company earnings and outlook statements.

This reporting season arrives against the backdrop of uncertainty in the economy. We expect strong results from major resource companies following a favourable year for commodity prices, while many consumer-facing and housing-related businesses may disappoint and are likely to deliver more cautious guidance as elevated interest rates, higher operating costs and ever-changing tax settings continue to pressure margins. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Popular.

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A layman’s guide to CrossBorder Capital’s latest financial outlook.

The core problem: A tsunami of government debt

Macroeconomic research house CrossBorder Capital’s Michael Howell recently summarised the dilemma confronting the U.S. Federal Reserve under newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh.

For most, the use of proprietary indicators and the esoteric interpretations is likely to be skimmed over, but sometimes a bit of additional attention pays dividends. Right now might be one of those junctures.

The U.S. government funds its budget shortfalls by issuing bonds – essentially IOUs to investors. To keep this system running smoothly, two things are required: balance-sheet capacity (the financial ability of large institutions to buy and hold these bonds) and market liquidity (the amount of readily available cash circulating to trade them). Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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I recently read a fascinating Substack explaining why “Champagne Socialism” is now the ultimate luxury belief.

The post implies the ultimate status symbol for today’s elite isn’t a yacht or a luxury watch; it is a loud, performative nod to radical left-leaning politics.

While the term isn’t new, today’s manifestation of the Champagne Socialist is deeply insidious because it’s a dynamic familiar to the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and its socialist/Labor Left factions, yet one that alienates and financially ruins the working class that Labor claims to champion. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Kylie Morris on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the recent increase in market volatility and the shift underway beneath the surface of equity markets. We explored how years of momentum-driven investing and record inflows into index funds have fuelled the outperformance of a handful of large technology stocks, and why that trend may now be reversing. We also discussed the next phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle, where investors are becoming more selective about which businesses are likely to benefit, as well as the sharp correction in South Korea’s technology sector as a reminder of the risks that can emerge when markets become concentrated.

Tune in from 33:30 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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The Energy Institute’s “Statistical Review of World Energy” for 2025 provides an interesting snapshot of how the world’s energy is supplied and, importantly, where Australia fits into the picture. The numbers reveal just how dependent we (and the rest of the world) are on oil, gas, and coal. But most interestingly, this report raises questions about Australia’s approach to nuclear energy, coal exports and decarbonisation. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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BCA Research (BCA), a global investment research firm, recently released its August 2026 market update, in which the authors argue against becoming defensive too early.

According to BCA, the current bull market contains many of the necessary ingredients for a future bust – geopolitical risk, an extraordinary artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure boom, and a looming wave of very large initial public offerings (IPOs) – but BCA believes the immediate evidence still favours investing in risk assets such as shares. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss rising U.S. interest rates and bond yields, what is driving them, and the potential flow-on effects for Australia. We also explored government debt, artificial intelligence (AI) investment, equity markets and what higher borrowing costs could mean for investors.

Listen from 1:43:51 here: ABC Statewide Drive 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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Well into the penultimate quarter of the calendar year, institutional and private investors face the paradox that record infrastructure capital expenditure, particularly by AI hyperscalers, coexists with heightened geopolitical risk, sticky inflation, and an apparent structural shift to the relationship between equities and bonds.

And if institutions are changing their asset allocations to reflect these shifts, should private investors do the same? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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In recent days, we have seen three ASX listed companies receive offers by private equity, and in each case, it appears their ownership will likely head overseas. 

I Squared Capital

New York based “Sophisticated and long-term infrastructure investor”, I Squared Capital has bid $1.70 per share for oOh!media Limited (ASX: OML), thus valuing the company at over $1.0 billion in Enterprise Value (EV), including the $130 million of net debt as at June 2026. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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