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For investors who still think of NRW Holdings (ASX:NWH) as simply a mining contractor, the Financial Year 2026 (FY26) result provides a useful reason to update that view. NRW has developed into a much broader Australian industrial contracting business, providing contract mining, drill-and-blast, engineering, and civil construction services to resources and infrastructure customers. Its activities span Civil, Mining, Minerals, Energy & Technologies and, following the acquisition of Fredon, a growing range of infrastructure-related work. Its exposure now stretches across mining, public infrastructure, data centres, defence, health and renewables. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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It may initially seem a stretch to claim the financial quality of your retirement beyond 2026 might depend on the outcome of some heroic assumptions about Hyperscaler artificial intelligence (AI) cash flows.

But is it?

Equity markets, and especially investors in U.S. stocks – of which there is a record number investing a record amount – are ignoring a litany of concerns. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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This week on ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed the recent sell-off in AI stocks and whether the AI bubble is beginning to burst. We explored how rising bond yields, growing debt burdens and uncertainty around profitability are putting pressure on the sector. While AI has the potential to transform industries, the current investment boom may face further challenges before more sustainable opportunities emerge.

Tune in here: ABC Statewide Drive 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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Recently, in an AXIOS email with the subject line, “Not too late,” the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote, “The White House, Congress and the country’s leading AI companies have allowed AI to grow faster, stronger, more powerful and wildly lucrative (and dangerous), with no serious effort to control it or spread the benefits beyond the super-wealthy, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in a “Behind the Curtain” column. It’s not too late to change this. But if they all dither, duck, or dance around it, the chances of AI worst-case scenarios will explode, likely early next year, according to almost everyone we talk to privately who truly understands AI.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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With Woolworths and Coles reporting their 2026 results, it’s easy to make their billions in revenue and profits political targets. But does translating their nominal Financial Year 2026 (FY26) results into the terms of an Australian household’s economics reinforce the criticisms levelled at them?

To help answer this question, I ran a bit of a thought experiment. Follow on below to find out more.

Together, Woolworths and Coles Supermarkets generated about $95.3 billion of sales in FY26. Against Australia’s latest official population estimate of 27.8 million, that equates to roughly $3,430 per Australian per year, or $66 a week. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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In the past six years, French Government ten-year bond yield has jumped from negative 0.3 per cent to 4.9 per cent, the highest level in 24 years. Investors are starting to differentiate between each euro-denominated country with German and Dutch ten-year bonds yielding 3.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, Greek and Italian ten-year bonds yield 4.55 per cent and 4.65 per cent, respectively, indicating potential contagion as confidence appears to be in short supply. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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If you haven’t noticed already, allow me to point out that investment discussions about artificial intelligence (AI) frequently devolve into almost insulting debates between AI evangelists, who cite massive total addressable markets (TAM) and explosive user growth, and sceptics, pointing to trillions of dollars in capital expenditure (capex), a buildout based on speculation, exorbitant compute costs, and an unclear path to profitability.

Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern professor and widely respected value investor, believes this debate has largely gone off the rails, noting in a recent post, “The debate about AI, in my view, has gone off the track with advocates and sceptics often talking past each other”. Optimists cherry-pick usage metrics, while pessimists focus on heavy spending, with both sides ignoring the rigorous business analysis that needs to take place in the middle. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss persistent inflation in the U.S., the impact of rising wages and services costs, and why the Federal Reserve may have limited room to ease rates. We also explored the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout, growing demand for capital and the pressure higher borrowing costs could place on hyperscalers, before discussing how private credit may fit within a higher-inflation environment. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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Well into the penultimate quarter of the calendar year, institutional and private investors face the paradox that record infrastructure capital expenditure, particularly by AI hyperscalers, coexists with heightened geopolitical risk, sticky inflation, and an apparent structural shift to the relationship between equities and bonds.

And if institutions are changing their asset allocations to reflect these shifts, should private investors do the same? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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As I have written many times, Australia’s Household Debt to Disposable Income Ratio has jumped more than fourfold to around 180 per cent over the past 50 years, making us one of the more indebted societies of the 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

Preeminent financial journalist of many decades, Robert Gottliebsen, recently argued a 10 per cent decline in house prices was the equivalent to around three 0.25 per cent interest rate increases for the average Australian consumer. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources.

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