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As Agentic artificial intelligence (AI)’s threat to jobs spreads ever wider, the concept of Universal Basic Income (UBI) is shifting from theory to, frighteningly, a central pillar of Silicon Valley’s vision for our future.

Love him or hate him now, OpenAI’s Sam Altman was the first to publicly discuss a UBI, announcing in early 2016 that Y Combinator would fund a multi-year, large-scale UBI study to prepare for an automated future. Elon Musk followed later that year, saying in a CNBC interview that UBI is “going to be necessary” because “there will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I have often joked that billionaire Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater, has predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions. In other words, far more than transpired.

It’s worth remembering the late Charlie Munger’s observation about forecasts: The only thing one needs to do to be a successful forecaster is to forecast often. 

Dalio is certainly a frequent prognosticator.

I can tell you, from painful personal experience, that trying to accurately predict a complex system like the global economy and financial system is nearly impossible, and it’s made more difficult by the fact that investors respond unpredictably even to the same scenarios presented at different times. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Another week, another artificial intelligence (AI) powered disruption. This time, two big announcements from China that may threaten the valuations of the big U.S. hardware-centric tech giants. 

The news

First, the release of AI-produced hyper-realistic movie-quality video from the Chinese company ByteDance-owned AI Seedance 2.0 has gone viral and simultaneously rocked Hollywood by completely reframing what the movie industry thought was possible. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In late March 2026, the ANZ Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Index hit the lowest level since the survey began in the early 1970s. 

Last week (5 April 2026), it rallied to the second worst week on record, as motorists received a $0.26 per litre reduction in the fuel excise.  And this week, I’m confident it will rally further on the back of the provisional ceasefire between the USA and Iran and the announcement of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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With the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries agreeing to release 400 million barrels of oil, the largest ever since its creation in the 1970s, to lower crude prices from the war with Iran, it might inspire some investors to believe the threat to markets has been assuaged. But at the same time, Iran has attacked approximately 20 commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz so far.

The Strait is now part of the Middle East war’s frontline as Iran seeks to inflict maximum economic pain on the world in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes on its territory. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The stock market is experiencing a dramatic bifurcation. While traditional sectors surge – energy companies are up over 20 per cent and materials firms 15 per cent – a different story is unfolding in the technology and financial services sectors. Established players are watching their valuations crumble as investors grapple with the answers to a simple question: which companies will survive the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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It’s a shot across the bow. In recent weeks, short, sharp sell-offs across the largest global artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers have woken investors from their technology and AI-inspired slumber. In just six trading sessions, Microsoft fell 18 per cent. Meanwhile, Amazon has declined 14 per cent in eight sessions, and Google parent Alphabet has fallen 8 per cent in just four sessions. Elsewhere, Meta fell 10 per cent, and Tesla has declined almost 12 per cent in 10 trading sessions.

This article was first published in The Australian on 11 February 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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The Trump administration’s decision to initiate a wide-scale military campaign against Iran, recently coined Operation Epic Fury, can be viewed through a number of lenses.  Some might say the strikes have been framed by Washington as a multifaceted necessity for global and domestic security. Others may simply say, the justifications for the strikes keep changing. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Rodney Brooks is the Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus) at MIT. For the last eight years, he has been publishing his predictions each year on self-driving cars, electric vehicles (EVs), robotics, artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning, and human space travel. Each year, Brooks reviews his prior forecasts without fear or favour.  Brooks has promised to review his predictions annually until 2050 (right after his 95th birthday), for a total of 32 years. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Former CEO, public speaker and author, Jay Grewal once said, “When it comes to the final nail in your coffin, it doesn’t matter if it’s dull or sharp, it’ll still hold, because a lifetime of prior nails have helped seal that coffin shut.”

In what may prove to be merely another accumulated nail in the coffin of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, the narrative on Wall Street shifted dramatically last week as the tech-driven optimism that has fueled the market for years hit a psychological and structural barrier. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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