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They can’t all be wrong at the same time. Can they?
Roger Montgomery
May 21, 2026
Four consecutive years of high double-digit returns in the stock market is a rare occurrence. Indeed, it’s happened once in 100 years. If this year ended on a high, it would be the second time investors enjoyed four consecutive high-returning years.
A growing number of reputable investors, however, are suggesting that the outcome is unlikely and they’re citing the relentless rise of sovereign bond yields.
According to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, government bond yields across the Group of Seven (G7) nations have surged to their highest levels since 2004. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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The 2026 Federal Budget – insights for investors
David Buckland
May 13, 2026
The 2026 Federal Budget has landed with some significant implications for investors.
I discuss the key economic indicators and the tax changes that are set to reshape the investment landscape.Economy
The starting point is to expect higher global inflation and lower growth with the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U.S./Iran war.
Growth in Australia is expected to slow to 1.75 per cent in 2026/2027.
Real wages are expected to go backwards again, which means living standards are expected to decline. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
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MEDIA
ABC The Business – Currency, Commodities and Investor Confidence
Roger Montgomery
May 11, 2026
I joined David Taylor on ABC’s The Business to discuss the recent strength in the Australian dollar and why markets are viewing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as one of the more hawkish central banks globally. I explained that investors are increasingly betting on further Australian rate rises, which has helped push the Australian dollar higher relative to other currencies. We also discussed how rising oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming federal budget could all influence inflation and the future direction of interest rates. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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The property market just changed forever – A major shift for investors
Roger Montgomery
May 14, 2026
In my latest video insight, I explain why I believe the budget could fundamentally reshape property investing in Australia. Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax may discourage investment in established properties, slow housing and credit growth, and create unintended consequences for banks, property-related businesses and younger Australians trying to build wealth.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property, Video Insights.
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Is SpaceX burning up on re-entry?
Roger Montgomery
June 23, 2026
I wonder whether there’s a more fundamental reason for SpaceX crashing 16 per cent overnight and 30 per cent since its June 16 high of US$225.64, beyond the headlines.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares plunged roughly 16 per cent overnight after disclosing a massive US$20 billion bond offering to fund its artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions, amid growing dilution concerns stemming from a US$60 billion stock acquisition of the AI coding platform Cursor.
SpaceX has disclosed plans to sell US$20 billion in investment-grade senior unsecured bonds to repay bridge financing and fund its aggressive artificial intelligence ambitions.
Meanwhile, the company’s agreement to acquire Anysphere (the developer of the Cursor AI coding platform) for US$60 billion in stock will dilute existing stakes. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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MEDIA
ABC Nightlife – Housing, SpaceX, and oil
Roger Montgomery
June 10, 2026
I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the Federal Government’s changes to capital gains tax (CGT) and negative gearing, and whether the reforms will improve housing affordability for younger Australians. We explored the potential impact on property investors, first-home buyers and housing supply, as well as the broader economic consequences of reducing incentives to invest. We also discussed the upcoming SpaceX IPO, concerns around its rapid inclusion in major indices, and why calm oil prices may be masking growing risks in global energy markets.
Listen here: ABC Nightlife Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Property, Radio.
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How the budget turns a reno to ruin
Rhodri Taylor
May 14, 2026
The 2026-27 Australian Federal Budget, handed down on May 12, 2026, fundamentally alters the economics of property flipping.
For decades, a tax system that rewarded capital growth over rental yield made the “buy, renovate, and flip” property model a popular way for middle-class investors with a bit of energy and an idea to get ahead.
However, Labor’s latest proposed tax reforms have gutted the high margins that once made short-term established property speculation rewarding. Continue…
by Rhodri Taylor Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Global equities may be closer to a peak than many investors expect
Roger Montgomery
May 28, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz today to discuss why global equity markets may be closer to a peak than many investors expect. We explored the historical link between oil-price spikes and weaker share markets, why even strong artificial intelligence (AI) –driven earnings growth may not protect valuations in a higher-rate environment, and how the excitement surrounding SpaceX is pushing many listed “proxy” space stocks into hyper-exponential territory untethered from fundamentals.
You can watch via Ausbiz here: Global equities may be closer to a peak than many investors expectby Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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What could a crash look like?
Roger Montgomery
June 12, 2026
The defining irony of today’s stock market has got to be the yawning chasm between asset prices and their intrinsic values. As equity indices scale ever higher peaks, and as hyper-parabolic Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios are normalised, the underlying truths don’t seem to have changed. Eventually even this bubble must bust.
U.S.-based senior economist at the Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington, DC, and author of the ‘AI Bubble Monitor’, and U.S.-based antitrust and policy analyst Matt Stoller reckon this dynamic can be attributed to something Stoller calls the “Number Go Up Rule”– a systematic rewiring of institutional incentives to ensure corporate valuations ascend at all costs, and frequently favouring speculative mania over fundamentally productive or socially additive enterprises. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
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AllBirds pivots to AI mania
Roger Montgomery
April 23, 2026
Corporate strategic pivots are common throughout history and particularly during market booms. Recall the mining companies that became internet companies during the internet bubble of 1999. Back then, merely adding “.com” to a company’s name saw its share price surge.
In the 1920s, radio was the ‘Internet and artificial intelligence (AI)’ equivalent of its day. It was the first time an electronic buzzword could instantly inflate a company’s value, and between 1922 and 1929, sales of radio equipment in the U.S. jumped from US$60 million to over US$840 million. Investors were so hungry for radio exposure that any company adding the word to its name saw its stock soar. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
What does June 30 mean for you? This article explains how managed fund distributions work. Read here.
