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China has supported a ceasefire in the Middle East and JD Vance made his first pilgrimage to meet with senior Iranian leaders. And while Donald Trump’s exit would inevitably be messy, and riddled with false starts, it seems reasonably safe to assume the process of ending the conflict began last month.

It seems the market received the brief. The ASX 200 is up almost 6 per cent from its March 23 lows, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up 11 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, from their lows on March 30.

The remaining question for investors is what happens next.

This article was first published in The Australian on 24 April 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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With the prospect of a full-scale war in the Middle East increasing, with bond yields heating up, and with famed short seller Michael Burry increasing his short position against the U.S. SOXX Semiconductor Index, could this month be the month that investors will look back on with regret, wishing they’d diversified?

It’s a midterm election year in the U.S.

Let’s begin with the U.S. Midterm elections in mind. Did you know the midterm year is historically the worst year of the four-year presidential cycle for stocks? Some analysts suggest it’s because of something called the “midterm discount.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights.

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Four consecutive years of high double-digit returns in the stock market is a rare occurrence.  Indeed, it’s happened once in 100 years. If this year ended on a high, it would be the second time investors enjoyed four consecutive high-returning years. 

A growing number of reputable investors, however, are suggesting that the outcome is unlikely and they’re citing the relentless rise of sovereign bond yields.

According to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, government bond yields across the Group of Seven (G7) nations have surged to their highest levels since 2004. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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The 2026 Federal Budget has landed with some significant implications for investors.
I discuss the key economic indicators and the tax changes that are set to reshape the investment landscape.

Economy

The starting point is to expect higher global inflation and lower growth with the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U.S./Iran war.

Growth in Australia is expected to slow to 1.75 per cent in 2026/2027.

Real wages are expected to go backwards again, which means living standards are expected to decline. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.

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I joined David Taylor on ABC’s The Business to discuss the recent strength in the Australian dollar and why markets are viewing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as one of the more hawkish central banks globally. I explained that investors are increasingly betting on further Australian rate rises, which has helped push the Australian dollar higher relative to other currencies. We also discussed how rising oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming federal budget could all influence inflation and the future direction of interest rates. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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In my latest video insight, I explain why I believe the budget could fundamentally reshape property investing in Australia. Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax may discourage investment in established properties, slow housing and credit growth, and create unintended consequences for banks, property-related businesses and younger Australians trying to build wealth.

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property, Video Insights.

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Themes like artificial intelligence (AI) can drive strong investor demand, but they can also blur the finer details. As more AI infrastructure businesses come to market, it’s a reminder to look beyond the excitement and focus on valuation, incentives and structure, because these are often what ultimately shape investor outcomes.

Read the article: ‘Rug pull’ or index inclusion play? Firmus’ IPO lock-up rules in focus as its roadshow rolls on Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary, On the Internet.

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I wonder whether there’s a more fundamental reason for SpaceX crashing 16 per cent overnight and 30 per cent since its June 16 high of US$225.64, beyond the headlines.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares plunged roughly 16 per cent overnight after disclosing a massive US$20 billion bond offering to fund its artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions, amid growing dilution concerns stemming from a US$60 billion stock acquisition of the AI coding platform Cursor.

SpaceX has disclosed plans to sell US$20 billion in investment-grade senior unsecured bonds to repay bridge financing and fund its aggressive artificial intelligence ambitions.

Meanwhile, the company’s agreement to acquire Anysphere (the developer of the Cursor AI coding platform) for US$60 billion in stock will dilute existing stakes. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the Federal Government’s changes to capital gains tax (CGT) and negative gearing, and whether the reforms will improve housing affordability for younger Australians. We explored the potential impact on property investors, first-home buyers and housing supply, as well as the broader economic consequences of reducing incentives to invest. We also discussed the upcoming SpaceX IPO, concerns around its rapid inclusion in major indices, and why calm oil prices may be masking growing risks in global energy markets.

Listen here: ABC Nightlife Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Property, Radio.

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The 2026-27 Australian Federal Budget, handed down on May 12, 2026, fundamentally alters the economics of property flipping.

For decades, a tax system that rewarded capital growth over rental yield made the “buy, renovate, and flip” property model a popular way for middle-class investors with a bit of energy and an idea to get ahead.

However, Labor’s latest proposed tax reforms have gutted the high margins that once made short-term established property speculation rewarding. Continue…

by Rhodri Taylor Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Property.

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