Popular Articles

For some time now, I have been writing about the fundamental structural shift occurring in global asset allocation, and specifically, the figurative death of the traditional 60/40 portfolio.

For many years, the typical approach to wealth management and balanced portfolios was to allocate 60 per cent to growth equities for potential capital gains and 40 per cent to public bonds to provide stability and income. 

When a recession struck and equity markets ran into headwinds, central banks cut interest rates, driving bond prices higher and shielding portfolio returns by offsetting stock market losses. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

The Financial Year 2026 (FY26) reporting season has concluded with corporate Australia in considerably better shape than many had feared.

Before getting too excited, however, it’s worth noting corporate Australia may not be in as good shape as the headline numbers suggest.

Aggregate profits rose by around 11.6 per cent.  Excluding mining and energy, however, the increase was just 5.3 per cent. Only 36 per cent of companies beat earnings expectations, below the historical average of about 40 per cent. Meanwhile, analysts have been cutting FY27 forecasts. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how the rise of passive investing is changing the sharemarket, with index funds increasingly pushing money into the biggest companies regardless of valuation. Using SpaceX as an example, we explored how speculative companies can attract enormous valuations during periods of market optimism, and why that may not last forever. We also looked at what this means for Australians, many of whom may have exposure to these trends through their superannuation.

Tune in from 1:45:22 on ABC Statewide Drive Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

If you’ve been following the technology headlines, you might be confused by two seemingly contradictory statements. The first is that artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming dramatically cheaper to run, and the second is that tech companies are spending more money on AI compute than ever before.

How can we reconcile these statements, and what does the conclusion mean for companies like Pro Medicus (ASX: PME), Xero (ASX: XRO), NEXTDC (ASX: NXT), Megaport (ASX: MP1) and others?

If the unit price of AI is plummeting, shouldn’t the overall costs be going down? And if AI software is taking over the world, shouldn’t every startup building an AI application (App) be printing money?

To help explain the apparent dichotomy, you need to understand a 160-year-old economic concept called Jevons Paradox that’s currently being referenced everywhere and said to be driving the entire AI industry. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

The S&P 500 has once again notched fresh record highs, surging more than 13 per cent year-to-date (YTD) and comfortably outpacing its historical average annual return. Driving the rally is a combination of robust earnings, apparently stabilising geopolitical friction, and the relentless build-out of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

If you follow financial news, like I do, you might have recently heard market commentator Trevor Hall summarise Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s latest move in a single eye-opener:

“He’s buying back bonds with 1 per cent interest rates at 50 cents on the dollar and replacing them with short-term debt that currently yields 3 and ¾ per cent.”

It sounds like a paradox. Why would the U.S. government buy back debt that costs them almost nothing (1 per cent interest rates) and swap it for debt that costs almost four times as much (3.75 per cent)? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

There’s a consistent view of the consumer emerging from Australia’s Financial year 2026 (FY26) retail reporting season.

Households haven’t stopped spending, but they’ve become more selective, more value-conscious and increasingly willing to postpone discretionary purchases or wait for promotions and sales.

The pressure is most evident in big-ticket categories like furniture, appliances, and homewares. Nick Scali (ASX:NCK) noted a significant decline in store traffic late in the year; JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) mentioned that customers are focusing their purchases around major sales; and Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) said that while browsing continues, customers are delaying their buying decisions. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

Despite the utterings from our senior politicians when discussing Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), this figure takes neither the rate of inflation, nor our population growth into consideration.

When our real GDP per capita for the June 2026 Quarter is released on Wednesday 2 September, I am concerned we will see another negative number, delivering lower living standards for Australians, as experienced over recent years. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

ARB Corporation (ASX: ARB) is Australia’s leading designer, manufacturer, and distributor of premium 4×4 vehicle accessories. Known worldwide for its flagship bull bars, suspension systems, roof racks, and camping gear, the company operates an extensive retail, wholesale, and export network serving off-road enthusiasts, commercial fleets, and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Consumer discretionary, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

Jeremy Grantham is considered one of the giants of the investment world. After his start as an economist for Royal Dutch Shell, he earned his MBA from Harvard before co-founding his first asset management firm and helping pioneer commercial indexing strategies in the early 1970s. He subsequently co-founded Grantham, Mayo, & Otterloo (GMO) in Boston, growing it into a global powerhouse managing over US$100 billion. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary.