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I was fascinated by this ABC article, which welcomed the federal Labor Government’s expected changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax in the 2026 Budget. While the article focuses heavily on tax policy as the lever for change, it largely omits the supply-side pressures of record migration and high construction costs. It also ignores the massive burden Labor’s massive and unbridled spending has on the budget, ensuring the young are locked in to paying off the debt for decades to come. Finally, it ignores the fact that when the older generation have taken out a mortgage to fund a rental property investment, they are reducing their burden on social welfare, specifically the government funded pension. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property.

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Travellers to Switzerland overwhelmingly describe the alpine nation as breathtaking, safe, and efficient – a dream destination with dreamlike Alpine landscapes. Those with a keen eye will also notice that one of the most beautiful places they have ever visited is

expensive, but it’s clean, the public transport is punctual, and the villages are charming. I have often heard friends return with the phrase “Everything just works”. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets.

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Higher global inflation and lower growth will reflect the scale of impact dependent on the length and severity of the U.S./Iran war. 

The near-term forecasts for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) use a Reference Scenario, Adverse Scenario and a Severe Scenario, as illustrated in Graph 1 below. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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Pivots galore

Few global macroeconomists have carried as much recent optimism as Ed Yardeni, who, as president of Yardeni Research, has spent the better part of this decade championing a ‘Roaring 2020s’ thesis – a nod to the roaring 1920s, on the back of productivity gains, technological innovation, and a resilient American consumer, Yardeni’s thesis has included a very bullish end to 2026.

In an interview with Thoughtful Money, however, Yardeni pivoted. While not abandoning his longer-term bullish base case entirely, the war in the Middle East, seems to have influenced a bit of a capitulation. He has also increased his probability of a recession from 20 per cent to 35 per cent, on the back of geopolitical volatility and the return of ‘bond market vigilantes’ – the latter being a term Yardeni famously coined in the 1980s to describe investors who protest inflationary fiscal policy by selling bonds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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What’s war good for? With apologies to Motown songwriters Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong, absolutely nothing from humanity’s point of view. While the human cost of conflict – measured in lives lost, families displaced, and immense suffering – is profound and undeniable, the historical relationship between geopolitical chaos and long-term market valuations is remarkably detached, perhaps because markets grind on, focused on profits and with what appears to be indifference to the tragedies that dominate the headlines. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Prior to the conflict, investors were debating AI’s immediate and long-term impact. While 2025 was about the rise of the AI “picks and shovels” – enablers like Nvidia – 2026 witnessed the emergence of agentic AI, and the narrative quickly became about the fall of the middlemen – the traditional software companies that built epochal and capital-light business on a per-seat revenue model.

This article was first published in The Australian on 25 March 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Before I begin; I use the term ‘workers’ in this article. It’s not intended to be disparaging. It’s a reference to a label that the Labor Government gives their core constituency. It’s the voting base Labor frequently refers to and says they support.

The 2026 Federal budget may offer an insight into Labor’s logic:

‘Tax the asset to fund their so-called ‘worker’, so that worker can buy an asset.’

The problem?

They haven’t solved a generational divide; I believe they’ve just designed a wealth-recycling machine where the Government takes a service fee at every turn.

If we look a bit closer, we find a paradox. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Proposed changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax (CGT) and new Australian Taxation Office (ATO) rules for holiday homes could significantly alter the economics of property investing in Australia. By reducing the tax advantages associated with property ownership, the changes may weaken demand across several investor groups and influence property prices over time.

Drawing on supply and demand principles, this whitepaper paper examines how investors, rentvesters, property flippers, holiday homeowners and discretionary trusts could be affected. It also explores the potential impact on borrowing capacity, resale demand and the attractiveness of established residential property compared with new builds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Popular, Property, Whitepapers.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to break down what’s actually on the table ahead of the federal budget. With a large deficit, ongoing inflation and rising government spending, I said this is an important budget and a time when rumours can spread quickly. I pushed back on claims of an inheritance tax and a cash ban, noting there’s little political appetite for either, while highlighting that changes to superannuation for higher balances are already in place. We also discussed how an EV road user charge could be introduced over time as fuel excise declines. On housing, I said policy tweaks like negative gearing changes are unlikely to have much impact, with credit availability and migration remaining the key drivers. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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Should persistent inflation drive a portfolio shift?

Helped by a 12 per cent rally since the war-inspired low recorded on March 30, the U.S. S&P 500 index is now at new all-time highs and more than two per cent above its previous all-time high recorded in February. 

It’s reasonable to conclude the global and U.S. economies are healthy and booming, as is the AI rollout. But those booms, along with the shocks stemming from war in the Middle East, may be sowing the seeds of a pivot and an inflation threat that could have serious implications for portfolio construction. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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