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Consumer confidence – A gentle uptrend after a 53-year low
David Buckland
July 8, 2026
Consumer confidence appears to be slowly improving after hitting its lowest level in 53 years in April 2026. While the recent uptrend is encouraging, confidence remains fragile, with household debt, cost-of-living pressures and recent interest rate increases still weighing heavily on consumers. The question now is whether this rebound marks the beginning of a genuine recovery, or simply a modest lift from extremely depressed levels. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
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The ingredients are in place for Aussie consumers to “rein it in”
David Buckland
August 20, 2026
As I have written many times, Australia’s Household Debt to Disposable Income Ratio has jumped more than fourfold to around 180 per cent over the past 50 years, making us one of the more indebted societies of the 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.
Preeminent financial journalist of many decades, Robert Gottliebsen, recently argued a 10 per cent decline in house prices was the equivalent to around three 0.25 per cent interest rate increases for the average Australian consumer. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The AI spending spree investors should fear
Roger Montgomery
September 3, 2026
On Ausbiz today, I discussed why the artificial intelligence (AI) boom may be reaching a crossroads. I looked at the enormous capital being deployed by hyperscalers, falling free cash flow and rising depreciation, and why growing competition and higher funding costs could make it increasingly difficult for these companies to generate sufficient returns on their AI investment.
Watch here: The AI spending spree investors should fearby Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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The arithmetic of Victoria: The pothole state
Roger Montgomery
August 24, 2026
In public finance, there is a simple truth that ideologues spend years trying to evade: Eventually, the numbers catch up with you.
Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when I was studying at University in Melbourne, the economic mismanagement of the Kane and Kirner Labor governments reduced what was then called the Garden State to an economic basket case.
Decades later and Labor has done it again, hitting Victoria hard.
When Labor came to power there in 2014, the state’s debt was $21.8 billion. Today, it exceeds $160 billion and is rapidly approaching $200 billion, making Victoria one of Australia’s heaviest financial ball-and-chains. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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A value investor’s framework for AI
Roger Montgomery
August 25, 2026
If you haven’t noticed already, allow me to point out that investment discussions about artificial intelligence (AI) frequently devolve into almost insulting debates between AI evangelists, who cite massive total addressable markets (TAM) and explosive user growth, and sceptics, pointing to trillions of dollars in capital expenditure (capex), a buildout based on speculation, exorbitant compute costs, and an unclear path to profitability.
Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern professor and widely respected value investor, believes this debate has largely gone off the rails, noting in a recent post, “The debate about AI, in my view, has gone off the track with advocates and sceptics often talking past each other”. Optimists cherry-pick usage metrics, while pessimists focus on heavy spending, with both sides ignoring the rigorous business analysis that needs to take place in the middle. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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What happens next at the Fed matters
Roger Montgomery
August 12, 2026
If the S&P 500 is the dog that wags the global stock markets’ collective tail, then the U.S. central bank – The Federal Reserve – is the brain controlling that dog. What happens at the Fed matters to almost every investor around the world.
And those investors have grown accustomed to dancing with a Federal Reserve that provided reams of forward guidance, as well as a dependable feedback loop. When the Fed spoke, markets adjusted, and increasingly innovative monetary policy smoothed over any volatility. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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FDC builds momentum after listing
David Buckland
August 27, 2026
FDC Consolidated Holdings Limited (ASX: FDC), a major Australian construction, fit-out, and building services company, has had an auspicious beginning as a public company after listing for $3.00 per share on the ASX on 13 July 2026. FDC reported a 13 per cent increase in revenue for the year to June 2026 to $1.69 billion, whilst underlying Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) (excluding listing costs) rose 18 per cent to $96.5 million. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.
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ARB’s FY26 – A look under the hood
Roger Montgomery
August 31, 2026
ARB Corporation (ASX: ARB) is Australia’s leading designer, manufacturer, and distributor of premium 4×4 vehicle accessories. Known worldwide for its flagship bull bars, suspension systems, roof racks, and camping gear, the company operates an extensive retail, wholesale, and export network serving off-road enthusiasts, commercial fleets, and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Put it on the tab
Roger Montgomery
September 17, 2026
In recent months, the chart shown in Figure 1., has been doing the rounds, inspiring fear among some observers that a stock market crash is imminent. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Why Australian Private Credit is different
Scott Phillips
August 18, 2026
I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about the key differences between the Australian and U.S. private credit markets, and why the risks making headlines overseas may not necessarily translate directly to Australia. We discuss how differences in borrowers, lending structures, loan duration, asset security and legal frameworks can result in very different risk profiles.
We also explore Aura Private Credit’s approach, including its focus on established businesses, asset-backed lending, shorter-duration loans and portfolio diversification. Brett explains why understanding how a manager generates returns, manages liquidity and protects against potential losses can be more important than simply comparing headline yields.
Learn more about private credit.
Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Video Insights.
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