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With Woolworths and Coles reporting their 2026 results, it’s easy to make their billions in revenue and profits political targets. But does translating their nominal Financial Year 2026 (FY26) results into the terms of an Australian household’s economics reinforce the criticisms levelled at them?

To help answer this question, I ran a bit of a thought experiment. Follow on below to find out more.

Together, Woolworths and Coles Supermarkets generated about $95.3 billion of sales in FY26. Against Australia’s latest official population estimate of 27.8 million, that equates to roughly $3,430 per Australian per year, or $66 a week. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I can’t tell you how many times I have heard the expression, “Australian residential Property prices never fall”.  Admittedly these “experts” have enjoyed an enormous 40-odd year bull market. However, they don’t believe that asset prices can be cyclical, and they likely missed the 1993 London headline which read “One million homes in negative equity”.

As Australia’s unemployment rate hits 4.7 per cent, a five year high, and inflation reaches 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to August 2026, it appears a period of stagflation – slow or negative real economic growth per capita, higher unemployment and persistent inflation – will likely be with us for the foreseeable future. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Popular, Property.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss rising U.S. bond yields and what higher interest rates could mean for markets. We also explored growing U.S. government debt, competition for capital from the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom, and the warning signs to watch across mortgages, highly leveraged companies and credit markets.

Watch here: The $40 trillion debt problem facing U.S. markets 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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This week on ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed the recent sell-off in AI stocks and whether the AI bubble is beginning to burst. We explored how rising bond yields, growing debt burdens and uncertainty around profitability are putting pressure on the sector. While AI has the potential to transform industries, the current investment boom may face further challenges before more sustainable opportunities emerge.

Tune in here: ABC Statewide Drive 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

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July and August 2026 have delivered a useful reminder that even the strongest investment narratives eventually collide with economics.

According to The Wall Street Journal, US momentum stocks suffered one of their worst stretches in decades. Bank of America noted July 2026 was one of the worst months for momentum trading in nearly forty years.

As artificial intelligence (AI)-related equities suffered their violent reversal, some of the market’s most popular semiconductor and memory names fell extraordinarily quickly. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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If the S&P 500 is the dog that wags the global stock markets’ collective tail, then the U.S. central bank – The Federal Reserve – is the brain controlling that dog. What happens at the Fed matters to almost every investor around the world.

And those investors have grown accustomed to dancing with a Federal Reserve that provided reams of forward guidance, as well as a dependable feedback loop. When the Fed spoke, markets adjusted, and increasingly innovative monetary policy smoothed over any volatility. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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SkinKandy (ASX: SK1) is Australia and New Zealand’s self-proclaimed leading specialty piercing and body jewellery retailer. Operating a ‘service-led retail model,’ the company delivers over 60 distinct types of professional body and ear piercings alongside a range of high-margin jewellery and specialised aftercare products. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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This week, the market’s most irrepressible bull, Ed Yardeni published another blog promoting his bullish thesis entitled, Peak Fear? Peak Yields? Peak Earnings? Peak AI?, alongside co-author Elias Griepentrog.

The headline gives away the framework because Yardeni and Griepentrog immediately answer the four questions in order:

Peak Fear? Yes.
Peak Yields? Maybe.
Peak Earnings? No.
Peak AI? No.

Let’s look at each argument in turn. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Supermarket giant Coles Group released its FY26 full-year earnings this week, delivering metrics that were modestly ahead of market expectations.

Despite persistent cost-of-living pressures facing Australian households, the company reported solid execution, robust supermarket growth, and strong efficiency measures.

Initial market excitement, however, is being tempered by an elevated capital expenditure outlook and a softer-than-expected early trading update for FY27.

Consequently, investors will weigh the solid historical performance against near-term cash-flow headwinds and competitive threats. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular.

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Billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates has waded into the artificial intelligence (AI) debate again, this time with a near-6,000-word essay on the transition to the AI era, describing it as one of the most turbulent periods in human history, and warning, “AI is improving faster than anyone expected…and could begin to act against our interests and we could lose control.”

While AI carries enormous potential to improve lives, Gates says the world is currently underprepared for the speed with which it will impact us socially, politically, and economically.

In his latest essay published on his website GatesNotes.com, Gates writes, “The transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history. Right now, we are not preparing adequately for that transition,” adding, “in terms of equity, AI will either be the greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of injustice.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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