Popular Articles

Should persistent inflation drive a portfolio shift?

Helped by a 12 per cent rally since the war-inspired low recorded on March 30, the U.S. S&P 500 index is now at new all-time highs and more than two per cent above its previous all-time high recorded in February. 

It’s reasonable to conclude the global and U.S. economies are healthy and booming, as is the AI rollout. But those booms, along with the shocks stemming from war in the Middle East, may be sowing the seeds of a pivot and an inflation threat that could have serious implications for portfolio construction. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

I know everyone, at the moment, is focused on the Middle East, oil prices and inflation, and some are also considering the second and third-order effects on, for example, plastic and food supply chains. But while investors are distracted by geopolitical tensions, another, potentially even sharper, transition in artificial intelligence (AI) is occurring that began at the end of last year and is accelerating.

For a while, Large Language Models (LLMs) like Gemini, ChatGPT, Grok and their ilk captured our imagination. AI felt like a sophisticated parlour trick – you ask a question and receive an answer, a more efficient web search, an online adviser or even a chat companion. And even now, the majority of those who use AI are still employing it this way. But that’s all about to change. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary.

On ABC Newcastle Mornings earlier today, I discussed rising recession risks and why, for many Australians, it already feels like one as cost-of-living pressures, high debt and shrinking disposable income take hold. I also shared practical steps households can take now to prepare, from cutting non-essential spending to building a financial buffer. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

The market has surged, jumping 2.6 per cent in a single day on news of a ceasefire in the Middle East. After weeks of volatility, the key question now is whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery – or just another short-lived rally.

I joined Sean Aylmer to discuss what’s really driving the rebound. While the rally appears genuine, the underlying risks haven’t disappeared. In uncertain times like these, I also find myself returning to the timeless principles of long-term investing and discipline that have guided some of the world’s most successful investors.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

Proposed changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax (CGT) and new Australian Taxation Office (ATO) rules for holiday homes could significantly alter the economics of property investing in Australia. By reducing the tax advantages associated with property ownership, the changes may weaken demand across several investor groups and influence property prices over time.

Drawing on supply and demand principles, this whitepaper paper examines how investors, rentvesters, property flippers, holiday homeowners and discretionary trusts could be affected. It also explores the potential impact on borrowing capacity, resale demand and the attractiveness of established residential property compared with new builds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Popular, Property, Whitepapers.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Popular, Property, Whitepapers.

In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.

The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss what rising oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East could mean for markets. We looked at historical data showing that past oil-price peaks have often been followed by weaker share markets, and also explored the growing excitement around SpaceX, including the opportunities and risks for investors considering investing in the company.

Tune in from 1:46:33 here: ABC Statewide Drive Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

Today on Ausbiz, I pushed back on forecasts calling for a 20–40 per cent collapse in Australian housing prices. In my view, that outcome is highly unlikely given the way our system is structured.

Yes, prices can fall. But when you’re bringing in tens of thousands of people each month and vacancy rates are sitting around 1 per cent, supply simply isn’t keeping up with demand. That imbalance continues to support prices. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Property, TV Appearances.

In this video insight, I explain why, while economists continue debating whether a recession is coming, many Australians are already living through one, as falling retail volumes, reduced discretionary spending and rising everyday costs take hold. Drawing on real-world examples from business owners and households, I highlight how shrinking disposable income is driving cutbacks, before outlining practical steps to prepare, including reducing non-essential spending, paying down high-cost debt and protecting your primary source of income. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Video Insights.

For as long as I have been around, the local supermarket and grocery store were the bastions of “what you see is what you get.” You picked up a jar of Vegemite or a tin of baked beans, looked at the price sticker stuck on the lid or the paper tag on the shelf, and you knew exactly what you were going to pay when you arrived at the checkout. 

But if companies and their board members have their way, that certainty will soon evaporate. And it will be replaced with something far more fluid, algorithmic, and, quite frankly, offensive and invasive and designed to handicap you.

It is called Surveillance Pricing, and if the government allows it, it will be the icing on the cake of the rip-off society we now live in, where Aussies are constantly shafting other Aussies. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• 2
• POSTED IN Market commentary.