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Before I begin; I use the term ‘workers’ in this article. It’s not intended to be disparaging. It’s a reference to a label that the Labor Government gives their core constituency. It’s the voting base Labor frequently refers to and says they support.

The 2026 Federal budget may offer an insight into Labor’s logic:

‘Tax the asset to fund their so-called ‘worker’, so that worker can buy an asset.’

The problem?

They haven’t solved a generational divide; I believe they’ve just designed a wealth-recycling machine where the Government takes a service fee at every turn.

If we look a bit closer, we find a paradox. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Should persistent inflation drive a portfolio shift?

Helped by a 12 per cent rally since the war-inspired low recorded on March 30, the U.S. S&P 500 index is now at new all-time highs and more than two per cent above its previous all-time high recorded in February. 

It’s reasonable to conclude the global and U.S. economies are healthy and booming, as is the AI rollout. But those booms, along with the shocks stemming from war in the Middle East, may be sowing the seeds of a pivot and an inflation threat that could have serious implications for portfolio construction. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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If you were thinking of buying a, say, a $2 million property to renovate and flip in 18 months, Labor’s 2026 budget just made that a perilous strategy, while also making investing in an AA rated Private Credit Fund way more attractive.

The 2026 Federal Budget has significantly shifted the goalposts for you. If you haven’t signed a contract yet, you are stepping into a very different tax environment than the one that existed last week.

In the current 2026 climate, a private credit fund returning 7.22 per cent as at 31 March 2026*, is almost certainly the superior choice for a $2 million allocation over an 18-month horizon.

*Returns are net of fees and assumes reinvestment of distributions. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. Inception date 4 October 2022. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Property.

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The market has surged, jumping 2.6 per cent in a single day on news of a ceasefire in the Middle East. After weeks of volatility, the key question now is whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery – or just another short-lived rally.

I joined Sean Aylmer to discuss what’s really driving the rebound. While the rally appears genuine, the underlying risks haven’t disappeared. In uncertain times like these, I also find myself returning to the timeless principles of long-term investing and discipline that have guided some of the world’s most successful investors.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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On ABC Newcastle Mornings earlier today, I discussed rising recession risks and why, for many Australians, it already feels like one as cost-of-living pressures, high debt and shrinking disposable income take hold. I also shared practical steps households can take now to prepare, from cutting non-essential spending to building a financial buffer. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

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This morning on ABC Newcastle Mornings with Paul Turton, I discussed how markets respond to geopolitical shocks and why investors should keep their focus on underlying fundamentals. While conflicts can cause short-term volatility, history shows markets often recover as investors anticipate recovery spending and economic growth.

Beyond the headlines, markets are still grappling with elevated valuations, the potential disruption from artificial intelligence, and weaker economic signals such as the recent U.S. jobs report. I also noted that prolonged conflict could lift the cost of oil, fertiliser, plastics and energy, which can flow through to higher prices across the broader economy. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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Today on Ausbiz, I pushed back on forecasts calling for a 20–40 per cent collapse in Australian housing prices. In my view, that outcome is highly unlikely given the way our system is structured.

Yes, prices can fall. But when you’re bringing in tens of thousands of people each month and vacancy rates are sitting around 1 per cent, supply simply isn’t keeping up with demand. That imbalance continues to support prices. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property, TV Appearances.

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In this video insight, I explain why, while economists continue debating whether a recession is coming, many Australians are already living through one, as falling retail volumes, reduced discretionary spending and rising everyday costs take hold. Drawing on real-world examples from business owners and households, I highlight how shrinking disposable income is driving cutbacks, before outlining practical steps to prepare, including reducing non-essential spending, paying down high-cost debt and protecting your primary source of income. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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For as long as I have been around, the local supermarket and grocery store were the bastions of “what you see is what you get.” You picked up a jar of Vegemite or a tin of baked beans, looked at the price sticker stuck on the lid or the paper tag on the shelf, and you knew exactly what you were going to pay when you arrived at the checkout. 

But if companies and their board members have their way, that certainty will soon evaporate. And it will be replaced with something far more fluid, algorithmic, and, quite frankly, offensive and invasive and designed to handicap you.

It is called Surveillance Pricing, and if the government allows it, it will be the icing on the cake of the rip-off society we now live in, where Aussies are constantly shafting other Aussies. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.

The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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