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Today on Ausbiz, I pushed back on forecasts calling for a 20–40 per cent collapse in Australian housing prices. In my view, that outcome is highly unlikely given the way our system is structured.

Yes, prices can fall. But when you’re bringing in tens of thousands of people each month and vacancy rates are sitting around 1 per cent, supply simply isn’t keeping up with demand. That imbalance continues to support prices. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property, TV Appearances.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Property, TV Appearances.

Since January 1999, Macquarie Bank’s shares have risen almost 1,400 per cent, and that excludes the returns from reinvesting dividends. That’s just capital gains alone.  Assuming the Federal Labor Party is voted out, and their capital gains tax disincentives are unwound, there could be another Macquarie-Bank-like 1999 opportunity. The opportunity to buy a mini Macquarie on the ground floor might be Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG).

On 11 June 2026, the Australian Competition and Consumer Comission (ACCC) decided to approve Magellan Financial Group Ltd’s (MFG) proposed acquisition of the remaining shares in Barrenjoey Capital Partners Group Holdings Pty Limited (Barrenjoey) that it does not already own, in return for equity in MFG (the Acquisition).

Magellan Financial Group’s acquisition of the remaining shares in investment bank Barrenjoey was approved by shareholders in April 2026. Completion is expected in early July 2026.

Here are the key terms and structural details of the merger: Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Financial Services.

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I recently joined ABC Newcastle Mornings with Kylie Morris to discuss why households may benefit from reviewing their spending habits, including a simple exercise of separating expenses into “wants” and “needs” to identify potential savings and build a financial buffer.

We also explored how interest rates can act like gravity on asset prices, with higher rates reducing the present value of future cash flows – potentially weighing on shares and other investments.

Finally, we touched on the implications of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom for investors and superannuation (with specific reference to the recent SpaceX IPO), including concerns around supply chain fragility, resource consumption and the growing integration of AI into critical systems.

Tune in from 37:30 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Kirsten Aiken on ABC The Business to discuss the challenges facing Australia’s retail sector. With higher interest rates slowing the economy and uncertainty around proposed tax changes weighing on consumer confidence, spending has softened across age groups. We explored the pressures facing traditional retailers, the accelerating shift to online shopping, the impact of global competitors, and why department stores such as Myer and David Jones continue to face long-term challenges as consumer habits evolve.

Watch here: Challenges grow for the retail sector, Glue the latest to close. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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In this video insight, I explain why, while economists continue debating whether a recession is coming, many Australians are already living through one, as falling retail volumes, reduced discretionary spending and rising everyday costs take hold. Drawing on real-world examples from business owners and households, I highlight how shrinking disposable income is driving cutbacks, before outlining practical steps to prepare, including reducing non-essential spending, paying down high-cost debt and protecting your primary source of income. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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I recently read a fascinating Substack explaining why “Champagne Socialism” is now the ultimate luxury belief.

The post implies the ultimate status symbol for today’s elite isn’t a yacht or a luxury watch; it is a loud, performative nod to radical left-leaning politics.

While the term isn’t new, today’s manifestation of the Champagne Socialist is deeply insidious because it’s a dynamic familiar to the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and its socialist/Labor Left factions, yet one that alienates and financially ruins the working class that Labor claims to champion. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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As the list of bears publicly declaring the end of the stock market’s bull run grows, so does the wave of charts, indicators and correlations used to explain or justify the growing chorus of crash predictions.

The bear camp’s advocates now include, most vocally, Scott Galloway, Ray Dalio and Michael Burry, and perhaps more reservedly, Torsten Sløck. Others in the bear camp include Jim Rogers and Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

Inside every smartphone, laptop, PC, smart speaker, smart TV, digital camera, USB flash drive and gaming console is a memory chip. And then there are industrial, medical and military applications. As an aside, Dramatic Random Access Memory (DRAM) and Not And (NAND) are the high-volume, commodity memory semiconductor components, working together in every device. DRAM requires power and manages your data, while NAND, which does not require power, stores your data. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Bullish investors believe AI is a new, infinite fourth factor of a nation’s production and wealth creation. In the past, we had labour, capital and land as production inputs, all of which were, of course, finite. Land provided the raw materials, labour the muscle and the mind to transform them, and capital was the tool.

Enter AI. The transformative aspect of this fourth ingredient is that, unlike the physical limitations of land or the finite hours of the human workforce, data is a resource that is functionally unlimited. And, importantly, it’s the only factor of production that actually grows more abundant the more we use it.

This article was first published in The Australian on 27 May 2026.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Inflation seems to be the topic du joúr. Perhaps surprisingly, however, is the variety of opinions, even on the same day.

Economists, strategists and analysts don’t seem to be able to agree on anything regarding inflation (except for the current number), even on the same day (in this case, today the 28th of May 2026) – even when presented with the same data.  

Here is just a small selection of comments about inflation that arrived in my inbox this morning, and as you will see, facts are open to interpretation. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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