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More retailers paint a picture
Roger Montgomery
August 31, 2026
The popular Australian economic narrative includes the argument the consumer is weak, and we are heading towards a recession.
But Australia’s latest retail earnings results are painting a more nuanced picture. In other words, the household sector is under pressure, but the pressure is not falling evenly.
Spending on essentials remains resilient, value-conscious consumers are still buying when the offer is compelling, and well-run retailers are protecting profit through better gross margins, lower costs and tighter capital discipline.
At the same time, however, the more discretionary categories continue to show weak traffic and softer like-for-like sales. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Why Australian Private Credit is different
Scott Phillips
August 18, 2026
I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about the key differences between the Australian and U.S. private credit markets, and why the risks making headlines overseas may not necessarily translate directly to Australia. We discuss how differences in borrowers, lending structures, loan duration, asset security and legal frameworks can result in very different risk profiles.
We also explore Aura Private Credit’s approach, including its focus on established businesses, asset-backed lending, shorter-duration loans and portfolio diversification. Brett explains why understanding how a manager generates returns, manages liquidity and protects against potential losses can be more important than simply comparing headline yields.
Learn more about private credit.
Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Video Insights.
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Sovereign debt yields continue to climb – is a debt crisis on the cards?
David Buckland
October 12, 2026
In the past six years, French Government ten-year bond yield has jumped from negative 0.3 per cent to 4.9 per cent, the highest level in 24 years. Investors are starting to differentiate between each euro-denominated country with German and Dutch ten-year bonds yielding 3.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, Greek and Italian ten-year bonds yield 4.55 per cent and 4.65 per cent, respectively, indicating potential contagion as confidence appears to be in short supply. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Debt and data centres don’t add up
Roger Montgomery
October 13, 2026
A growing chorus of people is asking how or when the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble will burst.
Tech critic and author Ed Zitron pointed out last week that even concerned investors love tossing around statements like “Anthropic has US$413 billion in non-cancellable compute contracts” or that “US$18 billion in Oracle data centre debt is trading at 84 cents on the dollar.” But he notes very few people actually pause to think about what those numbers mean in the real world. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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The cost of a housing downturn – who pays the price?
David Buckland
October 1, 2026
Australia’s housing market is under growing pressure, and further declines in property values could affect more than just homeowners. The consequences could extend across household finances, consumer confidence and state government budgets.
If the value of Australia’s 11 million dwellings decline by an average 15.5 per cent from its A$12.8 trillion peak, then up to A$2.0 trillion in paper wealth could be wiped out over the 2026-2027 period. Based on averages, a dwelling worth $1.16 million at its peak could fall below $1.0 million. This fall in value would equate to a decline of $70,000 per Australian in housing wealth. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Property.
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Negative equity trap: Post Labor budget house price drops are wiping out buyers’ life savings
Roger Montgomery
August 14, 2026
Since Labor’s 2026 federal budget changes were handed down, Australia’s property market – particularly suburbs across Sydney and Melbourne – has experienced sharp price corrections.
While property commentators spent early 2026 tracking a largely flat, sideways trend in capital city housing (hovering around the $1.81M to $1.83M median mark in Sydney), the post-budget landscape has delivered a rude shock.
For homeowners who, for years, sacrificed and scrimped to save a 10 to 20 per cent deposit and then purchased or refinanced during 2025 or early 2026, these price falls are no longer just abstract paper losses – they represent a devastating hit to their wealth and equity. Indeed, all they’ve saved has been wiped out in a matter of months. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
Fear + Greed Podcast Q&A – 10 lessons for investors from reporting season
Roger Montgomery
September 1, 2026
Australia’s FY26 reporting season looked reasonably strong on the surface, with aggregate profits rising by around 11.6 per cent. But underneath the headline numbers, the recovery was much narrower – and investors were often more interested in what companies said about FY27 than the profits they had just reported.
I speak with Michael Thompson from Fear + Greed, about my 10 lessons from reporting season. We discuss why consumers are still spending but demanding value, expensive bank valuations, the limits of cost-cutting, opportunities in healthcare and why stock selection is becoming increasingly important. Continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Popular.
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MEDIA
ABC Statewide Drive – Pressure builds across markets
Roger Montgomery
October 2, 2026
I joined Jess Maguire yesterday afternoon on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the sharp fall in the Australian share market, rising U.S. bond yields and the pressure higher rates can place on asset prices. We also discussed inflation and interest rates in Australia, before looking at the risks of company forecasts in isolation and why the combined growth expectations for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector may be difficult to achieve.
Listen from 1:46:38 on ABC Statewide Drive.by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.
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The runway for equities – are markets settling into a new pace?
Roger Montgomery
October 6, 2026
The narrative surrounding global equities is subtly shifting. Once dominated by momentum-driven optimism, especially for artificial intelligence (AI), today’s market discussions instead focus on structural frictions.
The most bullish equity strategist of note is U.S. researcher Edward Yardeni, whose Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO) thesis has driven his estimate for the S&P500 to reach 8,400 – 10 per cent higher than where we are today. Originally, this target was slated for the end of 2026, but now Yardeni has moved it to the middle of next year.
He notes the recalibration isn’t a reassessment of FEMO, but an acknowledgement of macro headwinds that limit immediate price to earnings (P/E) multiple expansion. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
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Potential ground floor opportunity for Magellan investors
Roger Montgomery
September 10, 2026
Magellan Financial Group’s operating profit for the 2026 financial year (FY26) modestly beat consensus, but the quality of the result was read as weaker, with pressure in investment management and a softer-than-expected contribution from Barrenjoey offset by unusually strong distribution income. Meanwhile, the conference call revealed several additional headwinds that lower the starting point for the 2027 financial year (FY27). Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Financial Services.
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