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April 9, last year, Donald Trump postponed his Liberation Day tariffs, fuelling a stock market rally led by artificial intelligence (AI) optimism. That optimism turned to fear this year as joy towards AI’s productivity enhancements morphed into panic about how many businesses it would destroy.

That panic reached an even higher level of urgency last week, when James van Geelen, a thematic investor and former entrepreneur who founded a healthcare company before moving into investment research on Substack, hypothesised that AI would lay waste to the entire global consumer economy, leaving generations of white-collar workers redundant. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss why geopolitical shocks often coincide with resilient equity markets. History shows that while wars and major conflicts can trigger sharp initial sell-offs, markets have often recovered quickly and, in some cases, delivered strong returns during those periods. During World War I, for example, U.S. equities initially fell by around 30 per cent before going on to generate average annual gains of close to 7 per cent between 1915 and 1918, including a particularly strong rebound in 1915. World War II also aligned with solid Dow Jones returns, depending on the start and end dates used. And according to data from LPL Financial on 22 major non-financial shocks since Pearl Harbor, markets have typically fallen by around 5 per cent before recovering fully within about six weeks. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

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I have been challenging my own thinking on this subject, and I am eager to distil the debate into the primary arguments, which are defined by a profound division.

That division mainly pits a sceptical public, the media, and some investors against an optimistic and arguably self-serving Silicon Valley, populated by tech pioneers and billionaires.

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 April 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive last week to unpack what a recession really means and whether Australia is already experiencing one on a per-capita basis. I highlighted how rising interest rates, energy costs and government policy pressures are squeezing households, while strong migration is masking weaker individual economic conditions, and warned that without structural reform Australia risks drifting into stagflation, where growth slows but inflation remains elevated. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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In this video insight, I explain why, while economists continue debating whether a recession is coming, many Australians are already living through one, as falling retail volumes, reduced discretionary spending and rising everyday costs take hold. Drawing on real-world examples from business owners and households, I highlight how shrinking disposable income is driving cutbacks, before outlining practical steps to prepare, including reducing non-essential spending, paying down high-cost debt and protecting your primary source of income. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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U.S. consumer delinquencies jump to highest in almost a decade

As reported by Bloomberg, delinquency rates on loans rose to 4.8 per cent of all outstanding U.S. household debt in the fourth quarter, the highest level since 2017. The rise in defaults was driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, particularly in lower income zip codes, and student-loan delinquencies. Overall household debt balances climbed 1 per cent from the previous quarter to $18.8 trillion, with the share of credit-card loans at least 90 days delinquent rising to 12.7 per cent. The jobless rate for workers 16 to 24 years old stood at 10.4 per cent in December, near the highest levels since the depths of the pandemic in 2021. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the recent volatility in global markets, driven by U.S. tariffs, political uncertainty and rapid developments in artificial intelligence (AI). I explained that because the U.S. represents around 30 to 40 per cent of global market capitalisation, what happens there inevitably affects Australia, and heightened uncertainty is making investors less willing to pay elevated valuations. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Dear Minister,

I am writing to urge a critical re-evaluation of the Australian Government’s 82 per cent renewable target for 2030 (part of your Powering Australia plan) and its long-term trajectory toward a near-100 per cent intermittent grid. While the ambition for a low-carbon future is shared, the 2026 global energy landscape provides a stark warning: the “free fuel” nature of wind and solar does not translate to lower consumer bills. In fact, as penetration increases, system-wide costs are already accelerating. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss how Middle East tensions and fuel shortages could impact markets, noting that while a large share of oil supply is at risk, prices have been more contained than in past crises. I highlighted that the key risk is how long the conflict lasts, with a prolonged disruption likely to put pressure on growth, drive up costs and weigh on sentiment.

Listen to the segment from 33:06 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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I’ve been spending some time today looking through Terry Moran’s latest piece on President Trump’s approach to the escalating conflict in Iran. Moran’s take – that the President is essentially “winging it” – is a sobering read for any disciplined investor.

According to Moran, when you look at the transcripts from the President’s recent flurry of interviews with the New York Times, ABC News, The Atlantic, Fox News, and MS Now, you don’t see a cohesive strategy. You see a series of contradictory “exits.” One minute it’s a popular uprising, the next it’s a negotiated settlement, and the next it’s “we’ll see what happens.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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