Popular Articles

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australia may be heading down the same path as Canada and New Zealand. Net overseas migration has nearly doubled from an average of 220,000 people per annum between 2007 and 2022 to around 423,000 per annum since May 2022, yet real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has been positive in only 4 of the past 15 quarters. We also discussed Australia’s weak productivity growth and whether population growth has been masking a slowing economy.

Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

On December 11, 1974, influential Austrian-born British economist and philosopher, Friedrich von Hayek, best known as a champion of free-market capitalism and classical liberalism, and a fierce critic of socialism and state intervention, delivered “The Pretence of Knowledge” as his Nobel Memorial Lecture. It was later published as an essay and remains one of his most famous critiques of central planning and hubris in economics. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

SpaceX has some real businesses, but if I am completely lucid, I’d say there’s no business that would support its US$2 trillion valuation.

While the headlines are made by rockets and SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9, which has radically changed the economics of sending cargo into orbit, slashing launch costs by 85 per cent to roughly US$2,700 per kilogram, it is Starlink that generated US$11 billion of last year’s US$18 billion in revenue. 

In fact, sending rockets into space doesn’t do a lot for the company’s finances. Indeed, SpaceX generates more revenue from renting out its NVIDIA chips to Anthropic than it does from rockets. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• 2
• POSTED IN Companies, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

In my article for Firstlinks, I explore the uneasy disconnect between human tragedy and market resilience. While war brings immeasurable suffering, history shows that equity markets often respond with surprising steadiness. From brief sell-offs ahead of conflict to rapid recoveries during it, markets seem to march on, focused on profits even as headlines scream chaos. With the current Middle East conflict unfolding, investors are once again asking: will history repeat itself, or is this time different?

You can read the article here: Firstlinks – War can’t be good, can it?

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

• READ ONLINE
• save this article
• POSTED IN On the Internet.

In this week’s video insight, I explore the growing debate around whether AI stocks are in a bubble by revisiting a strikingly familiar research note published during the DotCom era in 1999. At the time, investors were told there were “good reasons to pay through the nose” for leading technology stocks because their growth and disruptive potential made “this time different.” Drawing on my own experience working through the DotCom bubble, I reflect on how speculative excess can continue far longer than expected before eventually unwinding, often with devastating consequences for investors. While today’s artificial intelligence (AI) leaders may have strong fundamentals, history reminds us that every bubble comes with a compelling narrative that sounds convincing in the moment. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Video Insights.

I joined ABC Weekend Breakfast to discuss the record-breaking SpaceX Initial Public Offering (IPO), which briefly pushed Elon Musk’s wealth beyond US$1 trillion and valued the company at more than US$2 trillion. We explored what drove the strong debut, why much of SpaceX’s revenue now comes from its AI and data centre businesses rather than its space operations, and how NASDAQ’s decision to fast-track the stock into its index could force ETFs and index funds to buy shares. We also discussed the potential impact of insider selling in the months ahead and what the IPO could mean for everyday investors. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Popular, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Popular, TV Appearances.

I recently joined ABC Newcastle Mornings with Kylie Morris to discuss why households may benefit from reviewing their spending habits, including a simple exercise of separating expenses into “wants” and “needs” to identify potential savings and build a financial buffer.

We also explored how interest rates can act like gravity on asset prices, with higher rates reducing the present value of future cash flows – potentially weighing on shares and other investments.

Finally, we touched on the implications of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom for investors and superannuation (with specific reference to the recent SpaceX IPO), including concerns around supply chain fragility, resource consumption and the growing integration of AI into critical systems.

Tune in from 37:30 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Consumer discretionary, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Radio.

If you want to know where the stock market might be headed, you have to look at the economic gravity being exerted by the bond market. Right now, U.S. stocks and bonds appear to be on a dangerous collision course.

Think of it in terms of a feedback loop: soaring stock prices have made U.S. households feel incredibly wealthy – with equity holdings sitting at a record 250 per cent of disposable income – which keeps consumer spending hot and inflation sticky. At the same time, tech giants are pouring billions into data centres, further heating up the economy.

As the new U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chair, Kevin Warsh, just hinted, inflation won’t come down. So bond yields won’t drop until the stock market takes a meaningful breather to cool things off. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

The Federal Labor Government’s 2026-27 Budget tax reform package represents the most sweeping overhaul of Australia’s investment tax landscape in nearly three decades. By winding back the traditional pillars of wealth creation – specifically the 50 per cent Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing on established residential property – the government has fundamentally altered the math of investing.

While today’s major policy concessions (including exemptions for testamentary trusts and a step back from sweeping ministerial discretionary powers) provide some targeted relief, the core framework remains intact.

The clear takeaway for investors is a systemic structural shift: the traditional focus on heavily leveraged capital growth has been severely compromised, making high-yielding income generation far more appealing. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Property.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Property.

With stock markets recently retreating marginally from artificial intelligence (AI)-fuelled record highs, the question many thoughtful investors are asking is: Will the bull run resume, or is this the beginning of a broader correction?

Of course, we can’t be certain but what we can know is that as stock prices continue to soar, fears of an AI bubble will likewise increase.

Financial markets have performed spectacularly since late 2022, and equities have accelerated their gains this year just as structural stresses begin to appear and debates about sustainability begin to intensify. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.