November 23, 2023
As a result of the corporatisation of restaurants, there’s a plethora of them. The emergence of the Restaurant Group – Merrivale, Bentley, and The Speakeasy Group are examples which offer a business solution to the cost of independence through bulk buying power (for food and fit-outs) and merged accounting and marketing functions. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.
November 15, 2023
In this video insight, David Buckland and Gary Rollo discuss the underperformance of small-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks since the beginning of 2022. Gary explains that economic uncertainty has contributed to the recent underperformance, as investors tend to shift from small, less liquid investments to larger ones during such periods. However, he views this as a temporary condition, anticipating that once economic uncertainty diminishes, the longer-term performance characteristics of small caps may come into play. Continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
November 14, 2023
In this week’s video insight, I delve into the events of mid-October, specifically focusing on the collaborative proposal by ARN Media and Anchorage Capital Partners for a non-binding, indicative acquisition of Southern Cross Media. The merger sparked concerns about market dominance, particularly in the commercial radio sector in metropolitan Australia, leading to scrutiny from the ACCC. Notably, over the weekend, Kerry Stokes’ Seven West Media strategically acquired a 20 per cent stake in ARN Media, raising questions about his broader interests across Australia. The developments add layers of intrigue to the future of Australia’s commercial radio sector, making it a captivating subject to observe. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Media Companies, Video Insights.
November 30, 2023
As we monitor the behavior of the Australian consumer, it’s crucial to acknowledge that consumption constitutes approximately 50 per cent of Australia’s GDP, significantly influencing decisions related to interest rates. The robust trading update presented during the annual general meeting (AGM) by Temple & Webster Group (ASX: TPW), an online retailer specialising in furniture and homewares, prompts thoughtful consideration. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
November 29, 2023
Unsurprisingly, consumer spending dominates all other categories and contributors to economic growth in a consumption-based economy such as Australia’s. Australia’s private consumption accounted for 49.8 per cent of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in the June 2023 quarter. Australia’s private consumption contribution to the Nominal GDP ratio, which is updated quarterly, from Sep 1959 to Jun 2023, averaged a 56.2 per cent share. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Market commentary.
October 26, 2023
In last week’s interview with Ausbiz, I wanted to give my view on the stagnant performance of the ASX 200 over the last 16 years due to Australia’s tax-incentivised dividend policies. I also wanted to highlight how this approach leaves little for reinvestment, leading to flat returns. We delved into more insights during the interview, so if you want to hear the full discussion, have a listen to it here: There’s a good reason the S&P/ASX200 has gone nowhere in 16 years…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.
November 30, 2023
As China reflated its economy in 2015, we saw a massive five-to-six-year tailwind assisting the property boom. Speculation and strong property prices led to over-supply, and the eventual carnage experienced by most highly levered Chinese property developers over the past two years. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Property.
November 23, 2023
This week in my interview with Paul Turton on ABC’s Statewide Drive, we took a deep dive into the dynamic forces shaping the financial markets, homing in on Gary Shilling’s insights into the future of U.S. stocks. We discussed the S&P 500, dissecting the key growth engines—what I like to call the “magnificent seven” (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Tesla and Nvidia) —and explored the potential market repercussions if these seven companies were to be extracted from the index. To cap it off, we unravelled the intricacies of interest rates, placing special emphasis on the concept of “neutral interest rates” and why they stand as a crucial yardstick in deciphering our prevailing monetary policy. You can hear my thoughts from the 31-minute mark here. ABC Statewide Drive – Navigating the financial landscape
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.
December 1, 2023
In this week’s video insight, David Buckland and I discuss Seven Group Holdings (ASX: SVW), an Australian operating and investment group in the media, mining and construction industry in which the Montgomery Small Companies Fund holds a substantial stake. We spotlight the remarkable alignment between the Stokes family’s leadership and investors’ interests, emphasizing Seven Group’s astute counter-cyclical investment strategy. Additionally, we explore their recent strategic acquisition of Boral (ASX: BLD), shedding light on their concerted efforts to enhance operational efficiencies and bolster margins. Catch the full discussion here. Continue…
by Dominic Rose Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
November 30, 2023
In this week’s interview on ABC The Business, we delved into the recent developments surrounding Charlie Munger’s passing, the shifts in U.S. rates, and the premature assumptions made by investors about next year’s anticipated downward movements. Additionally, we explored the Reserve Bank of Australia’s insights on rates and their potential future trajectory. To catch the complete discussion, simply jump to the 11:50-minute mark in the episode published on November 29. ABC The Business – Munger’s legacy, U.S. rates, and RBA predictions
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, TV Appearances.
In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I wanted to give my insights on prevailing economic trends, the Australian economy, and the equity market. Watch here