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The Federal Labor Government’s 2026-27 Budget tax reform package represents the most sweeping overhaul of Australia’s investment tax landscape in nearly three decades. By winding back the traditional pillars of wealth creation – specifically the 50 per cent Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing on established residential property – the government has fundamentally altered the math of investing.

While today’s major policy concessions (including exemptions for testamentary trusts and a step back from sweeping ministerial discretionary powers) provide some targeted relief, the core framework remains intact.

The clear takeaway for investors is a systemic structural shift: the traditional focus on heavily leveraged capital growth has been severely compromised, making high-yielding income generation far more appealing. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Property.

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Artificial intelligence (AI) has become the market’s biggest investment theme, with strong earnings and seemingly reasonable valuations convincing many investors the rally still has further to run.

But beneath the surface, several warning signs suggest the picture may not be as strong as it appears.

Big claims, bigger questions

Elon Musk says SpaceX’s Total Addressable Market (TAM) in Enterprise AI is US$26.5 trillion. Outside estimates suggest $US50-$300 billion. This leaves the ‘buyers’ and the ‘sellers’ with some important questions. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market Valuation.

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This week I am back with Over The Money Fence with Nicola Dale and Di Edwards.  

This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. 

In this episode, I reassure Nicola and Di that despite everything that’s going on globally, it’s not all doom and gloom when it comes to the economy and markets. 

Are we in a recession? I discuss the cost-of-living crisis and how this is changing our spending habits, plus the latest pricing tricks used by supermarkets and airlines. 

We also talk about property and why I believe that people who are predicting that property prices in Australia will fall by 40 per cent are wrong. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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If you want to know where the stock market might be headed, you have to look at the economic gravity being exerted by the bond market. Right now, U.S. stocks and bonds appear to be on a dangerous collision course.

Think of it in terms of a feedback loop: soaring stock prices have made U.S. households feel incredibly wealthy – with equity holdings sitting at a record 250 per cent of disposable income – which keeps consumer spending hot and inflation sticky. At the same time, tech giants are pouring billions into data centres, further heating up the economy.

As the new U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chair, Kevin Warsh, just hinted, inflation won’t come down. So bond yields won’t drop until the stock market takes a meaningful breather to cool things off. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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There is an old political adage that if you want to understand a government’s true philosophy, don’t look at its speeches, look at its accounts.

Under Labor, Australians have been treated to a masterful exercise in political misdirection. The old ‘bait-and-switch.’

On one hand, the government trumpets marginal, highly structured tax cuts – like the Working Australians Tax Offset (WATO) – to soothe voters battered by cost-of-living pressures. On the other hand, a quieter but more profound structural shift is taking place across the Australian economy.

It may sound extreme and even alarmist, but federal Labor’s economic model is built entirely on a singular, stubborn premise: the wealth generated by the private sector is nothing more than uncollected revenue waiting to be harvested by the state. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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Scott Galloway is an American academic, author, podcast host, and serial entrepreneur. He’s best known as a Clinical Professor of Marketing at the New York University Stern School of Business and a prominent commentator on big tech, modern economics, and social trends.

Galloway has recently and publicly joined the ranks of stock market bears, predicting we’re on the precipice of a US$10 trillion wipeout while immediately noting he, “gets this wrong all the time [so] this is not financial advice.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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On December 11, 1974, influential Austrian-born British economist and philosopher, Friedrich von Hayek, best known as a champion of free-market capitalism and classical liberalism, and a fierce critic of socialism and state intervention, delivered “The Pretence of Knowledge” as his Nobel Memorial Lecture. It was later published as an essay and remains one of his most famous critiques of central planning and hubris in economics. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the growing debate around whether AI stocks are in a bubble by revisiting a strikingly familiar research note published during the DotCom era in 1999. At the time, investors were told there were “good reasons to pay through the nose” for leading technology stocks because their growth and disruptive potential made “this time different.” Drawing on my own experience working through the DotCom bubble, I reflect on how speculative excess can continue far longer than expected before eventually unwinding, often with devastating consequences for investors. While today’s artificial intelligence (AI) leaders may have strong fundamentals, history reminds us that every bubble comes with a compelling narrative that sounds convincing in the moment. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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Consumer confidence appears to be slowly improving after hitting its lowest level in 53 years in April 2026. While the recent uptrend is encouraging, confidence remains fragile, with household debt, cost-of-living pressures and recent interest rate increases still weighing heavily on consumers. The question now is whether this rebound marks the beginning of a genuine recovery, or simply a modest lift from extremely depressed levels. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.

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I recently read the musings on Substack of a British citizen who is watching “the country I was born in dissolve into a managed, bureaucratic, state-dependent puddle of its former self.” They say, “Britain is not failing. Britain has failed,” and they’ve assembled a comprehensive solution. I wonder to what extent their economic reforms should be applied to Australia. Do you think any of it makes sense for us? Are we failing as a nation? Do these ideas represent solutions? Some ideas would have labels attached to them, such as ‘regressive’ and ‘protectionist’, but forget the labels. You have to look at the whole, not the individual measures, which, of course, is how we got to the mess we are in. Perhaps we need a telescope not a microscope. Would it be better than what we have? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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