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If only to arm you with arguments you might not be apprised of, it’s worth repeating artificial intelligence (AI) critic and author, Ed Zitron’s most recent warnings about the AI bubble, starting with a reference to the potential insolvency of OpenAI and Anthropic: Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Michael Burry, the Wall Street legend made famous for shorting the 2008 U.S. housing bubble in Michael Lewis’s book The Big Short, is ramping up his short thesis again, while taking direct aim at the “idiots” (his term) in what he calls “Trump’s market”. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In this week’s Video Insight, I explain why market volatility is a normal part of investing. While market pullbacks can feel unsettling, history shows they’ve often been temporary and have regularly occurred even in years that finished with strong returns. The key is staying disciplined and keeping your focus on the long term. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.

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Independent economic research and investment strategy firm Variant Perception (VP) has shared its latest market musings, and the phrase “generational equity top” got a run.

The equal-weighted Value Line Arithmetic Index is drawing down from its August high, while the Nasdaq 100 is rallying… Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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For two years, Silicon Valley and global equity markets agreed that artificial intelligence (AI) is an uncapped frontier where aggressive capital deployment and unchecked spending would automatically yield exponential returns. Or, perhaps, equity markets believed the spin coming out of Silicon Valley. 

Whichever scenario is true, reported operating results over the past week have confirmed the shift in sentiment toward AI.

Slowing revenue, public market pullbacks, and fluid enterprise strategies suggest the market’s appetite for unconstrained AI spending is finally hitting a ceiling. Investors have well and truly moved past the honeymoon phase and are demanding proof of a sustainable economic model. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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For decades, the 60/40 Balanced Portfolio was zealously and even religiously adhered to. The fixed income component was the dependable anchor, providing a steady yield, protection against stock market volatility, while allowing investors to sleep soundly at night.

More recently, bond returns have given sleeping investors a rude awakening.

U.S. analyst Ben Carlson recently highlighted this shift, pointing out that modern bondholders have endured a catastrophe, describing the market as “…the most brutal bond market in modern finance history,” adding, “It’s no wonder bonds are the most hated asset class in the world.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about how Aura structures its private credit portfolios with multiple layers of protection aimed at preserving investors’ capital. Brett explains how this begins with selecting quality Australian businesses, rigorous credit assessment and tangible loan security, before adding further protection through lender equity that sits below Aura’s investment in the capital structure.

We also discuss the role of diversification across thousands of underlying loans, short loan durations of typically three to five months, and independent monthly risk assessments by Open Analytics. Together, these measures are designed to manage risk across the portfolio and provide multiple avenues of protection should a borrower experience financial difficulty.

Learn more about private credit. 

Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Video Insights.

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In this video, I discuss Computershare (ASX: CPU), a global provider of share registry and shareholder administration services, and why it caught our attention during the year. I explain how the company’s decision to sell lower-returning businesses and refocus on its core operations has improved the quality of the business, while a significant fall in the share price presented a more attractive valuation. Together, these factors led us to establish a position in Computershare. Continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.

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I explain how we’re using AI in two key areas: to support investment research by synthesising information, generating ideas and identifying changes or inflection points in company reporting, and internally to improve how we allocate capital across the portfolio. Our internal AI operates offline, allowing us to use our proprietary research while keeping that information secure.

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Insightful Insights, Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.

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This week, I am back with Nicola and Di for our series Over The Money Fence.

This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. 

In this episode, we go through the fallout from the federal budget and explain why, despite being sold as a win for young Australians, the changes to negative gearing have actually made it harder for first home buyers to get into the market. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Property, Technology & Telecommunications.

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