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Investors are debating a number of scenarios. One is that Trump will install enough cronies on the board of the U.S. Federal Reserve that rates will be cut as many as five times in the next year. Supporters believe this could be incredibly bullish for markets, especially equities. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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For the last month or two, I have been writing with increasing frequency about the possibility of the stock market boom transitioning into a bubble. There are a variety of reasons for this, and they usually fall under two broad headings. The first is technical and the second is behavioural. Often the latter influences the former, but the reverse can also be true, so let’s agree that the sets in the Venn diagram intersect. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Since the advent of the car, railroads or electricity, few technologies have captured investor imagination quite like generative artificial intelligence (GenAI).  

The debut of AI tools like ChatGPT has attracted billions in research and development (R&D) and related construction investment at the same time that share market investors have poured trillions into AI-related stocks, inflating valuations to levels that some suggest should make even the dot-com era blush.   Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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This week on ABC Statewide Drive with Jess Maguire, I explored the risks of stagflation and rising debt. While markets may look strong on the surface, the reality is more complex. Stagflation – when economic growth slows or stalls while prices continue to rise ­– creates a challenging environment for investors. We’re beginning to see signs of a slowing economy alongside persistent inflation, and that combination is far from ideal. So, what does this mean for share prices, and how should investors think about adapting their portfolios?

Listen to the full conversation from 1:44:30 here: Statewide Drive – Stagflation and rising debt

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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This morning on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, we unpacked the confusing signals coming from global markets. Despite geopolitical turmoil, rising inflation expectations, and forecasts of rate cuts – which usually signal economic weakness – equity markets are hitting all-time highs, credit spreads remain narrow, and liquidity appears abundant. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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This morning i joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how investors should focus on central bank actions rather than rhetoric – given liquidity continues to be a key driver behind today’s market momentum. Over the past year, global liquidity has surged by around US$10 trillion, helping to fuel the dramatic rise in equities, defence stocks, and artificial intelligence (AI). Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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In my latest article for Nabtrade, I explore why markets continue to climb despite ongoing global uncertainty.

Momentum in sectors like artificial intelligence (AI) and expectations of policy support are helping to overshadow global uncertainty. However, elevated valuations and Trump’s unpredictability suggest a degree of caution would still be wise for investors. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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Last night I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to explore Kenneth Rogoff’s warnings on the looming U.S. debt pile and the end of the “free money” era, and why investors should stay cautious. With debt levels near WWII highs, foreign buyers showing less appetite for U.S. bonds, and Trump’s tax cuts paired with massive borrowing, the risks of a crisis are mounting. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Value.able.

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I joined David Taylor on ABC’s The World Today to discuss the growing wave of speculative euphoria sweeping global financial markets. From meme stocks and cryptocurrencies to gold and penny stocks, investors are chasing high returns. Could this just be a reflection of greater liquidity? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I am fascinated by the standard descriptions of returns cited by commentators in the real estate market. I am also disappointed that a regular opportunity to educate investors about returns is so frequently missed. 

Back in July, an article in The Australian Financial Review, entitled Renovators’ return: How to maximise property value in 2025, observed, “The nurse and engineer have transformed the house they bought in Adelaide’s seaside Glenelg for $450,000 back in 2012. They’re now looking to sell for $1.9 million, a four-fold return compared with the doubling of house prices over the same period.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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