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Having returned to work after a little rest and respite, I was recently confronted, nay, berated, by headlines about Labor’s deal to slash borrowing costs for electric vehicles (EVs) as it scrambles to meet climate targets.

While I was away, I saw the chart in Figure 1 and immediately realised the futility of our efforts to influence the global climate, concluding that Labor’s schemes appear to be driven by ideology rather than evidence. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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In my first video insight for 2026, I explained that the era of easy investing is over. With valuations elevated, markets concentrated in a narrow group of stocks and volatility rising, I believe investors need to think more carefully about diversification.

That is why we continue to focus on strategies uncorrelated to markets, such as the Aura Private Credit Income Fund, which seeks to provide investors with access to regular income, and the Digital Asset Funds Management – Digital Income Fund, which seeks to profit from volatility and pricing inefficiencies across global asset exchanges.

These strategies may offer diversification benefits and alternative sources of income in a changing investment environment. If you would like to learn more about our offerings and whether they are appropriate for your circumstances, please fill in the form below to receive further information. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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While investors look to the next Nvidia earnings call or the latest OpenELM (Open-source Efficient Language Models) release to predict the future of artificial intelligence (AI), Michael Burry – made famous for making billions shorting markets ahead of 2008 subprime crisis – recently turned to an article entitled Thought without Language, The Narrative of a Deaf-Mute, His First Thoughts and Experiences, in the June 19, 1880, edition of the New York Times.

“The case study is of a teacher at the Columbia Institute for the Instruction of the Deaf and Dumb. This particular teacher, Melville Ballard, is also a deaf mute and a graduate of the National Deaf Mute College.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear and Greed to look back at some of the key themes that shaped markets in 2025, including the hype surrounding in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and the growing case for small caps. We also talked about the rise in gold and silver as the U.S. dollar weakened, and what those moves could signal for investors.

We then looked ahead to 2026, discussing why markets may become more volatile and how diversification into assets uncorrelated to traditional markets could help support portfolios. We covered Digital Asset Funds Management’s Digital Income Fund and how its digital arbitrage strategy aims to benefit from market volatility, and explored how Aura’s Private Credit Income Fund can provide income and returns with no correlation to sharemarkets.

You can listen to the episode on Fear and Greed here: The bull and bear cases for equities in 2026.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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Recognising this isn’t the first time I have expressed concern about the ultimate fate of humans in an artificial intelligence (AI) world, I pondered several AI-related questions over the weekend. 

The first is that if many, and maybe most, of us are using AI already – and some very effectively – with existing infrastructure, how many more data centres do we really need? Flipping the question, if the competition among AI agent providers is driving the cost of AI access down to zero – many use Google’s Gemini daily, and it costs nothing – for what purpose are a thousand more data centres really being built?

The second question is related: AI tools are already so ubiquitous and cheap they amount to a commodity. Consequently, AI infrastructure players may believe that to make any money, they’ll have to race to be the first to create something dangerously powerful. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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Business is like a piano accordion. Sectors and individual companies expand and grow, then contract, necessarily becoming smaller than they once were. If you keep this metaphor in mind when investing, it can help you understand the business’s stage of life. 

There are exceptions, of course – those businesses that rise above the cycle of invention, adoption, scale, saturation, disruption and destruction, but they are few and far between. Most will eventually reach a natural limit to their size, and then they either sit there, churning customers for lower margins, or are disrupted, or their customers move on to the next trend. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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ARB just dropped its half-year 2026 results, and if you only looked at the stock price as  – down 13 per cent by the close of 24 February 2026 – you’d think the wheels had fallen off the 4WD. But as any off-road enthusiast knows, sometimes you have to gear down to get through the mud. In fact, ARB is up by 14 per cent today (25 February 2026).

While the headline numbers from their report reflect some “short-term pain,” the underlying story suggests the “long-term gain” remains on track. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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On statewide drive with Jess Maguire, I explained that recent market volatility reflects investors reassessing some big assumptions, particularly after Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair.

Many investors had been expecting lower U.S. interest rates, so the nomination caught markets off guard and forced a reversal of those bets. That led to sharp falls in gold and silver, higher bond yields, and weaker share prices. While precious metals may recover over time, I see the bigger influence on sharemarkets as the gradual unwinding of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. For Australia, stronger U.S. growth can support some companies, but persistent inflation risks and policy uncertainty mean investors are becoming more cautious and re-evaluating risk.

Listen from 1:44:55 here: ABC Statewide Drive. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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