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As investors, we have a particular interest in Australia’s condition, its desirability as a destination for living and its quality as a destination for investing. For some time now, I have feared better destinations exist elsewhere. Whether deliberate or unwitting, the government is not prioritising the betterment of the nation. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Property.

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In this week’s video insight I take a closer look at record stock markets, what’s driving them to new highs, and what that might mean for investors. The S&P 500 is trading at historic levels on measures such as price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios, with much of the enthusiasm powered by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Companies are spending billions on cloud, semiconductors and infrastructure, while revenues are still catching up. It’s an exciting period of innovation, but also one where history reminds us markets often price in future growth well before it materialises. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.

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Yesterday on ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed how Australia’s rising unemployment rate has lifted the odds of an interest rate cut – a move that could support valuations even as the economy softens. I explained why investors shouldn’t react to monthly data but instead stay focused on quality businesses and consider diversifying into alternatives like private credit or arbitrage funds to stay balanced in a volatile market.

Listen in from 1:48:17 on ABC Statewide Drive.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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Fourteen years ago, in 2011, a commodity boom in iron ore saw BHP’s share price hit $40 for the first time. It was the 8^th of April 2011. There was great excitement, surrounding Australia being the ‘lucky’ country yet again. Peter Richardson, Morgan Stanley’s then global metals chief economist, put forward a strong investment case for the “crucial” steelmaking commodity.

We will see Morgan Stanley again soon.

By contrast, on April 11 that year we published a blog Will China demand Iron… or…?, where we wrote that iron ore prices would henceforth decline, ending the commodity boom and causing buoyant share prices to fall. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) delivered its full-year 2025 (FY25) results on 6 November, posting cash earnings of $7.091 billion – essentially flat on FY24 and a touch below the market’s $7.18 billion consensus.

The share price sold off about two per cent on the day, and we believe the relatively soft trading since is due to investors focusing on two things:

1. Higher-than-expected loan impairment charges (up 14 per cent to A$833 million), driven mainly by missed payments, a handful of individual business banking exposures and some unsecured retail lending stress, and
2. Relatively flat earnings and final dividend 85 cents per share, bringing the full-year dividend per share (DPS) up one cent to 170 cents, fully franked.

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Financial Services.

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In this week’s video insight, I highlight the folly of buying physical gold amid the recent surge in prices. When people were lining up at Sydney’s bullion stores paying nearly $225,000 per kilo, it signalled a market nearing its peak – exponential rallies like that are rarely sustainable. Beyond timing risk, buying bullion involves steep frictional costs, with a spread of around 7 per cent between buy and sell prices. Since then, gold prices have fallen sharply, leaving many buyers facing losses. If you really want exposure to gold, I argue it’s far more efficient to buy a low-cost exchange-traded fund (ETF) rather than lining up for physical bullion. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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In this video insight, I question whether the trillions being poured into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure can ever be justified. By 2028, the industry’s hardware and data centre spend could exceed US$3 trillion, yet customers would need to spend over US$3 trillion a year – around 10 per cent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – to make the math work. Unless adoption and profits scale far faster than history suggests, this AI rocket ship could run out of fuel. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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History might not repeat, but it rhymes – especially when markets climb to record highs. Indeed, as markets peak, so does collective optimism. Consequently, experts, economists, and central bankers alike tend to downplay the rising risks, anchor to the “new era,” and declare that ‘this time is different’ – the four most dangerous words ever uttered in investing. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Hear from the team at Polen Capital as they outline their disciplined investment process that allows them to filter thousands of companies down to a focused group. By concentrating on businesses with durable advantages and essential products, they aim to build portfolios aligned with their long-standing philosophy of quality and conviction. Continue…

by Polen Capital Posted in Polen Capital.

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Yesterday I joined Jess McGuire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to talk about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and what it means for investors. While AI may well transform industries and benefit consumers, I cautioned that the rush into AI stocks has pushed valuations to bubble-like levels, where prices assume every company will succeed – something history tells us is impossible. High valuations typically mean lower future returns, and right now U.S. stocks are at record high prices. For investors, particularly those nearing retirement, my advice was simple: regularly rebalance portfolios by trimming back exposure to overheated assets and reallocating to alternatives such as private credit, small company funds, or cash — rather than panic selling — to stay defensive while still positioned for long-term growth. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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