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November 19, 2025, marks Nvidia’s fiscal third-quarter earnings release for 2025 (Q325), and investors are holding their breath. The chipmaker, long the poster child for the artificial intelligence revolution, finds itself at a crossroads. With shares having pulled back almost 13 per cent in recent weeks amid heightened scrutiny, Q325 report could either reaffirm the explosive growth narrative driving technology valuations or fuel fresh doubts about an overheated artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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With 30 per cent of the U.S. S&P 500 index trading at more than 10 times sales, and 13 per cent of the S&P 500 by index weight trading at 20 times price-to-sales (P/S) (a level that now surpasses the tech boom of 1999-2000), we’ll take a break this week from commenting further on market valuations and leave it to you to decide whether it’s wise to be fully invested in equities, or diversified.

This article was first published in The Australian on 21 November 2025.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Yesterday I joined Jess Maguire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to discuss the sharp fall in Meta’s share price after it revealed another huge increase in artificial intelligence (AI) spending. I explained that while Mark Zuckerberg insists the investment will eventually pay off, the scale of AI infrastructure costs – potentially US$3–5 trillion by 2030 – means companies will need extraordinary revenues to justify the outlay. History shows transformative technologies often enrich consumers more than investors, and while today’s firms are profitable – unlike in 1999 – the “build-now, profit-later” mentality risks colliding with commercial reality.

Catch the full episode from 1:43:29 ABC Statewide Drive here.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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October 2025 will go down as an extraordinary month for investors. NVIDIA, which has appreciated by over 50 per cent in the first ten months of 2025 and seen its market capitalization exceed US$5 trillion. The aggregate market capitalization of the Magnificent Seven (including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla) hit US$22 trillion, or 37.4 per cent of the S&P 500 and the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) is palpable. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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Sir Isaac Newton is enshrined in history as the saint of rational thought. He decoded the laws of gravity, invented calculus, and parsed the rainbow. Yet, in the spring and summer of 1720, the arguably most intelligent man in the British Empire made a series of financial blunders, recorded for posterity, and so catastrophic they have become a cautionary legend in economic and investment history.

Newton’s entanglement with the South Sea Company serves as a stark reminder: in the face of collective delusion and market mania, even a genius can be led astray. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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On this week’s video insight, I discuss how two seemingly separate developments –Jerome Powell signalling an end to quantitative tightening (QT) and surging U.S. subprime auto loan delinquencies – may together warn that the equity bull market is running on fumes. Liquidity support could soon become more targeted, banks may tighten lending, and stretched equity valuations could face pressure. Now is a prudent time for investors to rebalance: rotating profits from high-growth names into defensives, holding some cash for volatility, and perhaps exploring adding uncorrelated assets like private credit or arbitrage funds to their portfolios. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.

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On Monday the S&P/ASX 200 tumbled two per cent, led by a sell-off in tech stocks. It’s now down about seven per cent over the past month. Concerns about the end of the interest rate cycle in Australia, a lack of information on Wall Street and the forever present geopolitical fears seem to be weighing on investors.

On Fear & Greed, with Sean Aylmer, I explained that stretched valuations and a cooling of artificial intelligence (AI) optimism are prompting a shift in sentiment – but this isn’t a time to panic. It’s a reminder to rebalance, trim what’s run hard, and look to genuinely diversified, uncorrelated opportunities.

Tune in to the episode here: Q+A: What’s next after yesterday’s market tumble? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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Recently, the BBC interviewed Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Alphabet, Google’s parent. With all the claims the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is a bubble – something I have noted cannot be known until after the event – I wonder whether the BBC was motivated to go to the source. 

Describing the surge in AI funding as a remarkable period, yet one marked by certain unrealistic expectations, Pichai warned viewers of BBC News that no business would escape unscathed if the AI boom collapses. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Time Magazine has awarded the 2025 person of the year to…wait for it…a group of people. The architects of artificial intelligence (AI) have been nominated for this year’s cover.

Before the advent of digital magazines, billions were spent annually on buying physical magazines representing every topic and subculture known to man. And magazine cover trading became a contrarian way to invest. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Last night, on ABC’s 7.30 news report with Michael Rowland, I discussed whether surging investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is pushing large technology companies to unsustainable valuations. I noted that investors often become highly enthusiastic when new technologies emerge that are believed to reshape the world, but history shows this can inflate expectations. In the case of AI, the scale of spending by tech hyperscalers is immense, and to justify it they would need extraordinary levels of revenue.

Watch the full segment here: ABC News – Are AI investors causing tech companies to be overvalued?

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, On the Internet, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

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