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Australia’s housing market is under growing pressure, and further declines in property values could affect more than just homeowners. The consequences could extend across household finances, consumer confidence and state government budgets.

If the value of Australia’s 11 million dwellings decline by an average 15.5 per cent from its A$12.8 trillion peak, then up to A$2.0 trillion in paper wealth could be wiped out over the 2026-2027 period. Based on averages, a dwelling worth $1.16 million at its peak could fall below $1.0 million. This fall in value would equate to a decline of $70,000 per Australian in housing wealth. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Property.

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Magellan Financial Group’s operating profit for the 2026 financial year (FY26) modestly beat consensus, but the quality of the result was read as weaker, with pressure in investment management and a softer-than-expected contribution from Barrenjoey offset by unusually strong distribution income. Meanwhile, the conference call revealed several additional headwinds that lower the starting point for the 2027 financial year (FY27). Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Financial Services.

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Since Labor’s 2026 federal budget changes were handed down, Australia’s property market – particularly suburbs across Sydney and Melbourne – has experienced sharp price corrections.

While property commentators spent early 2026 tracking a largely flat, sideways trend in capital city housing (hovering around the $1.81M to $1.83M median mark in Sydney), the post-budget landscape has delivered a rude shock.

For homeowners who, for years, sacrificed and scrimped to save a 10 to 20 per cent deposit and then purchased or refinanced during 2025 or early 2026, these price falls are no longer just abstract paper losses – they represent a devastating hit to their wealth and equity. Indeed, all they’ve saved has been wiped out in a matter of months. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Australia’s FY26 reporting season looked reasonably strong on the surface, with aggregate profits rising by around 11.6 per cent. But underneath the headline numbers, the recovery was much narrower – and investors were often more interested in what companies said about FY27 than the profits they had just reported.

I speak with Michael Thompson from Fear + Greed, about my 10 lessons from reporting season. We discuss why consumers are still spending but demanding value, expensive bank valuations, the limits of cost-cutting, opportunities in healthcare and why stock selection is becoming increasingly important. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Popular.

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Harvey Norman Financial Year 2026 (FY26) results: Australian squeeze, overseas drag, and what it signals for the broader economy

Harvey Norman Holdings (ASX: HVN) released its FY26 full-year financial results and early FY27 trading update. While property revaluations boosted top-line profit, the underlying retail and franchising operations reflect the well-documented challenges in the domestic consumer environment, as well as overseas operational challenges. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.

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If only to arm you with arguments you might not be apprised of, it’s worth repeating artificial intelligence (AI) critic and author, Ed Zitron’s most recent warnings about the AI bubble, starting with a reference to the potential insolvency of OpenAI and Anthropic: Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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When you hear people talk about U.S. inflation, a popular narrative is the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is essentially powerless. The argument goes that today’s sticky price pressures are almost entirely driven by outside supply shocks – things like new tariffs, volatile energy costs, and bottlenecks in tech hardware caused by the massive artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Elon Musk issued a warning over the weekend about the state of artificial intelligence (AI) financing.

According to the SpaceX and Tesla founder, the debt markets have seized up for pure-play AI data centre operators, and more than 200 neocloud companies face severe consolidation or total collapse. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.

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It’s the question on every investor’s mind: are the hyperscalers spending too much on their infrastructure buildout such that they won’t generate a satisfactory return on capital?

Investors are furiously debating whether the Hyperscalers are overspending.

Recently, ‘Lloyd’ commented on a Livewire blog post about the subject, stating the following: Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I explore the growing risks facing global markets as cracks emerge across technology, fixed income and inflation. With artificial intelligence (AI) investment increasingly circular, government debt climbing and inflation remaining stubborn, investors may need to prepare for a more volatile and challenging market environment.

Download here: Global markets face reckoning as triple threat fractures appear Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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