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In my latest article for Firstlinks, I unpack a fundamental question: why do investors react differently to market fluctuations when they own a listed company versus a private business? If a private enterprise consistently grows its profits, owners dismiss lowball offers. Yet in public markets, investors often panic over short-term price movements, even when the business is thriving. This disconnect has important implications for portfolio construction, particularly for retirees navigating sequencing risk. I also explore whether private credit could offer a more stable income alternative. Read the full article here: Firstlinks – An alternative asset class for income-seeking retirees continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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In this Livewire article, I highlight key factors for investors to watch in 2025. The rise in tech stocks, including the Magnificent Seven, is driven by share price momentum fuelled by disinflation and economic growth, rather than strong fundamentals. While concerns about a market correction persist, I argue that shifts in liquidity and investor sentiment are more likely to trigger downturns than elevated valuation metrics. You can read the full article here:

Livewire: What matters for 2025 and beyond

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, On the Internet.

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In this article for Firstlinks I discussed whether 2025 will be another bullish year for equities. Despite warnings of an imminent market correction, the rally in equities, particularly driven by the Magnificent Seven tech giants, persists, supported by positive economic growth and moderating inflation. While some indicators, like soaring valuations and speculative behavior, suggest caution, history shows that such conditions often don’t signal an impending crash. As long as disinflation and growth continue, there’s little reason to expect a sharp downturn. While speculative excesses are evident in certain sectors, the broader market remains robust, and 2025 could potentially see another strong year. However, future risks, including geopolitical tensions and global debt concerns, should not be ignored.

You can read the full article here: 2025: Another bullish year ahead for equities?

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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Yesterday, I had the pleasure of participating in the InvestmentMarkets September webinar series to discuss the current economic backdrop and factors driving markets. I highlight two asset classes where I see significant opportunities for investors in the coming new year: innovative quality small companies and Australian private credit. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, On the Internet.

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In my recent article for Firstlinks, I explore the rising concerns about a potential market correction. Since 2022, I’ve been optimistic about stocks rising despite recession fears and increasing interest rates, based on expectations of positive economic growth and disinflation. Disinflation has historically benefited innovative companies with pricing power. However, investors like Ruffer LLP and Mark Spitznagel now warn of a severe market crash due to shrinking U.S. liquidity. While their warnings merit attention, I believe that positive growth and slowing inflation will continue to support innovative growth companies. Read the full article here for my full insights: What to do about the growing chorus of market correction warnings? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, On the Internet.

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In this interview, Richard Hemming and I discussed the promising landscape of small cap investments, highlighting the recent, strong performance of the Montgomery Small Companies Fund. I shared insights on the fund’s strategic positioning and optimistic outlook despite market volatility, emphasising an overweight in growth sectors like technology and consumer discretionary. I also discussed the potential for Australian tech firms and consumer retail strategies, explaining how the economic conditions influence market dynamics. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet, Small Caps.

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In my recent article for Firstlinks, I revisited the stance I took nearly a year ago, advocating for investment in small caps – a position that seemed premature at the time. Subsequently, the investment landscape has evolved significantly, steering many investors, myself included, towards smaller companies both domestically and internationally. The current macroeconomic backdrop, characterised by disinflation and positive economic growth, seems particularly conducive to smaller companies with robust pricing power and innovation, traits that are essential for outperformance. Read the full article here for my full insights: Small caps are compelling but not for the reasons you might think… 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, On the Internet.

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I joined Livewire to discuss the turbulent past six months faced by Qantas Airways (ASX:QAN), marked by controversies and a decline in consumer trust. Despite seemingly positive financial results, I share my concerns, casting doubt on the airline’s future profitability. I stress emphasis on the need for fleet upgrades and recommend reconsidering Qantas stock, citing its failure to keep pace with competitors. Read now: Qantas hits turbulence with “accounting and strategic trickery” and an ageing fleet

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, On the Internet.

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This week, I joined ABC’s The Business to discuss the anticipated challenges and strategies for Corporate Australia during the upcoming reporting season. Focusing on the banking sector, I particularly highlight Commonwealth Bank, underscoring the escalated competition’s effect on net interest margins, especially in the context of an uptick in distressed sales.   continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet, TV Appearances.

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In my recent article with Firstlinks, I wanted to highlight why the S&P/ASX 200 has shown minimal capital gain over the past 16 years, with only a 0.02 per cent total capital gain and an annualised capital gain of 0.00182 per cent per annum. The main reason as to why this is the case, dividends. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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