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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is fighting the government sctor where aggregate expenditure has jumped from a long-term average of 22.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the five decades from 1970 to a forecast 28 per cent of GDP. “Underlying inflation” is running at 3.5 per cent, and the strength of public spending has been underappreciated, assisting aggregate demand and keeping unemployment low.    

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by David Buckland Posted in Economics.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Small Caps, TV Appearances.

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According to multiple commentators and outlets reporting on those commentators, the equity market is now at a euphoric level – officially. Evidently, there’s a measure for euphoria produced by Callum Thomas, the founder of Topdowncharts, in Queenstown, New Zealand. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In yesterday’s interview with Ausbiz, we discussed the rising importance of private credit as a key asset class, with projections indicating it could double by 2028 to nearly $2.8 trillion. I explained that traditional 60/40 portfolios are becoming less effective due to the increased correlation between bonds and equities. By reallocating part of the fixed income exposure to private credit, investors can achieve higher returns and fewer losing years. A portfolio mix of 40 per cent equities, 30 per cent fixed income, and 30 per cent private credit not only enhances performance but also reduces volatility, providing greater portfolio stability without compromising equity exposure. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, TV Appearances.

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As Christmas approaches and we gradually unplug from the frenzied activity of another year, I’d like to leave you with a brief summary of the year that was, provide some guidance on what 2025 might bring and offer you my prayers for a safe and peaceful Christmas. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Last night on ABC Nightlife, I joined Philip Clark to discuss the challenges of predicting market turning points. We also explored the concerning state of China’s economy, where plummeting property prices and Xi Jinping’s attempts to shift towards a consumption-driven model akin to those of Australia, the U.S. and Europe could have significant impacts on Australia due to our strong trade ties. Lastly, we touched on Australia’s housing market, where both property prices and rents have surged dramatically since the COVID-19 pandemic.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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John Templeton famously observed; bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.

With several commentators now labelling markets euphoric, the call for a correction is becoming louder. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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As the global economic landscape navigated another year of heightened uncertainty and subdued conditions, Aura Credit Holdings remained steadfast in its commitment to delivering value, adapting to change, and laying the groundwork for future growth. Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.

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Last night, I joined James Kirby on The Australian podcast, The Money Puzzle, to discuss the crucial role company boards play in managing CEOs, particularly when poor leadership behaviour starts impacting shareholder value. With recent scandals involving companies like Qantas (ASX:QAN), WiseTech (ASX:WTC), and Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), we examined how a CEO’s actions can significantly affect both public trust and financial returns for investors. We also took listeners’ questions and discussed the current advantages and disadvantages of artificial intelligence (AI).
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Podcast Channel.

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The U.S. recorded its 23rd consecutive federal deficit in the year to September 2024 at US$1.83 trillion, around 6.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). For October and November 2024, the federal budget deficit hit US$622 billion, up US$242 billion or 64 per cent year-on-year. Admittedly, some of the jump was related to timing differences. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics.

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