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AI’s next test
Roger Montgomery
September 16, 2026
July and August 2026 have delivered a useful reminder that even the strongest investment narratives eventually collide with economics.
According to The Wall Street Journal, US momentum stocks suffered one of their worst stretches in decades. Bank of America noted July 2026 was one of the worst months for momentum trading in nearly forty years.
As artificial intelligence (AI)-related equities suffered their violent reversal, some of the market’s most popular semiconductor and memory names fell extraordinarily quickly. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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What did Coles bring to the checkout in FY26?
Roger Montgomery
August 27, 2026
Supermarket giant Coles Group released its FY26 full-year earnings this week, delivering metrics that were modestly ahead of market expectations.
Despite persistent cost-of-living pressures facing Australian households, the company reported solid execution, robust supermarket growth, and strong efficiency measures.
Initial market excitement, however, is being tempered by an elevated capital expenditure outlook and a softer-than-expected early trading update for FY27.
Consequently, investors will weigh the solid historical performance against near-term cash-flow headwinds and competitive threats. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular.
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Give us back our confidence!
David Buckland
October 21, 2026
I just returned from an inspiring presentation on artificial intelligence (AI) by Alan Finkel AO, Australia’s Chief Scientist from 2016 to 2020, only to read that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2,200 staff had rejected a 9.5 per cent pay rise, over three years. The proposal included a 3.5 per cent increase in the first year, followed by a 3.0 per cent increase in each of the next two years.
Together with the Head Office renovation, now expected to cost $1.2 billion, this seems like a “joke”, particularly when we consider that total RBA staff numbers have increased by around 800, or 57 per cent, over the past five years. And this doesn’t include the RBA’s fiscal 2025/26 accounting loss of A$8.5 billion on the unrealized value of its government bond and foreign exchange portfolio. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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Keeping on bullish – Yardeni’s thoughts on why AI hasn’t peaked
Roger Montgomery
August 27, 2026
This week, the market’s most irrepressible bull, Ed Yardeni published another blog promoting his bullish thesis entitled, Peak Fear? Peak Yields? Peak Earnings? Peak AI?, alongside co-author Elias Griepentrog.
The headline gives away the framework because Yardeni and Griepentrog immediately answer the four questions in order:
Peak Fear? Yes.
Peak Yields? Maybe.
Peak Earnings? No.
Peak AI? No.Let’s look at each argument in turn. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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More retailers paint a picture
Roger Montgomery
August 31, 2026
The popular Australian economic narrative includes the argument the consumer is weak, and we are heading towards a recession.
But Australia’s latest retail earnings results are painting a more nuanced picture. In other words, the household sector is under pressure, but the pressure is not falling evenly.
Spending on essentials remains resilient, value-conscious consumers are still buying when the offer is compelling, and well-run retailers are protecting profit through better gross margins, lower costs and tighter capital discipline.
At the same time, however, the more discretionary categories continue to show weak traffic and softer like-for-like sales. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Potential ground floor opportunity for Magellan investors
Roger Montgomery
September 10, 2026
Magellan Financial Group’s operating profit for the 2026 financial year (FY26) modestly beat consensus, but the quality of the result was read as weaker, with pressure in investment management and a softer-than-expected contribution from Barrenjoey offset by unusually strong distribution income. Meanwhile, the conference call revealed several additional headwinds that lower the starting point for the 2027 financial year (FY27). Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Financial Services.
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MEDIA
ABC Statewide Drive – Pressure builds across markets
Roger Montgomery
October 2, 2026
I joined Jess Maguire yesterday afternoon on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the sharp fall in the Australian share market, rising U.S. bond yields and the pressure higher rates can place on asset prices. We also discussed inflation and interest rates in Australia, before looking at the risks of company forecasts in isolation and why the combined growth expectations for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector may be difficult to achieve.
Listen from 1:46:38 on ABC Statewide Drive.by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Why Australian Private Credit is different
Scott Phillips
August 18, 2026
I speak with Brett Craig, Director of Private Credit at Aura Credit Holdings, about the key differences between the Australian and U.S. private credit markets, and why the risks making headlines overseas may not necessarily translate directly to Australia. We discuss how differences in borrowers, lending structures, loan duration, asset security and legal frameworks can result in very different risk profiles.
We also explore Aura Private Credit’s approach, including its focus on established businesses, asset-backed lending, shorter-duration loans and portfolio diversification. Brett explains why understanding how a manager generates returns, manages liquidity and protects against potential losses can be more important than simply comparing headline yields.
Learn more about private credit.
Alternatively, you can speak with David Buckland or Rhodri Taylor here at Montgomery on (02) 8046 5000. Continue…by Scott Phillips Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Popular, Video Insights.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – David Jones’ woes and the domino effect
Roger Montgomery
October 30, 2026
On Ausbiz, I discussed the mounting pressures facing Australian retailers, using David Jones’ financial difficulties as a reflection of broader challenges across the sector. We also explored the potential flow-on effects for Australian brands, employment and shopping centres, as rising costs and weaker consumer spending continue to weigh on retailers.
You can watch the episode here: David Jones’ woes and the domino effect. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
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The cost of a housing downturn – who pays the price?
David Buckland
October 1, 2026
Australia’s housing market is under growing pressure, and further declines in property values could affect more than just homeowners. The consequences could extend across household finances, consumer confidence and state government budgets.
If the value of Australia’s 11 million dwellings decline by an average 15.5 per cent from its A$12.8 trillion peak, then up to A$2.0 trillion in paper wealth could be wiped out over the 2026-2027 period. Based on averages, a dwelling worth $1.16 million at its peak could fall below $1.0 million. This fall in value would equate to a decline of $70,000 per Australian in housing wealth. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Property.
What do U.S. rising interest rates mean for Australia? Find out here.
