Search Results for: bubble
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Market PE ratios
Russell Muldoon
July 24, 2014
The one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P/ASX 200 index has varied significantly over the past few years. In 2011 it fell to 12 times, and recently market participants have been sufficiently enamoured to push the ratio as high as 16-17 times.
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, Value.able.
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Deal or no deal?
Roger Montgomery
July 23, 2014
We’re just putting the finishing touches on this year’s letters to our investors in both The Montgomery [Private] Fund and The Montgomery Fund. No, we aren’t about to publish the contents of those letters here. You’ll need to become an investor to see that. What we can say is that there is ample evidence to suggest the markets could keep going higher from here. It’s true that many signals suggest that long-term investors buying at today’s levels might be setting themselves up for low returns, but that doesn’t mean prices can’t go even higher (and consequently produce even lower returns for longer-term investors). Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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Are we experiencing bubble conditions? (08/07/2014)
Roger Montgomery
July 8, 2014
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.
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Don’t jump at shadows
Roger Montgomery
July 4, 2014
There is nothing in the dark that isn’t there when the lights are on.
It seems you can ignore warnings of an imminent stock market crash. The US Fed is happy for a bubble to form, and it’s not even worried about any subsequent bust. No longer is the US Fed beholden to fears of irrational exuberance, and commentators who point to rising risks may simply be premature, if not completely missing the point of ignoring who is in charge. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Are we in a bubble?
Roger Montgomery
July 1, 2014
In this interview with Andrew Robertson on ABC’s The Business on 1 July 2014, Roger asks the question of whether we are experiencing bubble conditions. Watch here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.
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Speculation miscalculation
Scott Shuttleworth
June 20, 2014
Following yesterday’s article on Yo (found here) I was reminded of an article I read whilst studying investment analysis under Professor Robert Durand of the University of Western Australia (now at Curtin University). The article (which can be found here) titled “Contagious Speculation and a Cure for Cancer: A Nonevent that Made Stock Prices Soar” by Huberman and Regev, described the series of events surrounding the stock price of EntreMed (ENMD) and other biotech stocks listed in the United States. Continue…
by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Health Care, Insightful Insights.
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Bubble Watch #11
Roger Montgomery
June 19, 2014
Fresh on the heels of our concerns about China and low volatility, we bring to you another sign that the world might just be going a little mad…. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Bubble Watch #10
Roger Montgomery
June 18, 2014
As you know we prefer to invest with a telescope rather than the microscope.
Getting too close to the action can, and does, lead investors astray as they jump at shadows and ignore the sunshine. Having said that we are always on the lookout for risks to the prospects for companies we are analyzing or have already acquired. More importantly we want you to stay in front of the curve. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Mini Bubble Burst
Russell Muldoon
May 28, 2014
In October last year, we offered you the opportunity to buy a diversified digital ‘business’ that generated $16.9m in revenue, and made a $4.1m loss in 2013 – for $292m. Whilst this didn’t sound like a great deal (and it wasn’t), the business had amazing prospects according to market announcements that were replete with industry buzzwords such as ‘cloud’, ‘mobile’, ‘payments’ and ‘online scale’. In reflection of this, shares in the company were performing strongly. Continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Bubble watch #9
Roger Montgomery
May 21, 2014
We’re a self-deprecating bunch, us Aussies. Anything from the US is just that little bit better than what we have here, surely. At a finance seminar, you listen that little bit harder to anyone with an American accent, but should we be undervaluing our own abilities so harshly? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Bubble watch #8
Roger Montgomery
April 29, 2014
Following on from the very bearish view of future returns from technology stocks held and published by Seth Klarman at the beginning of the year – he noted Amazon.com was trading at 515 times earnings, Netflix at 181 times, Tesla Motors at 279 times, and LinkedIn at 145 times – we thought you might be interested in similarly bearish views of the US hedge fund team at Greenlight Capital lead by David Einhorn (pictured). Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Bubble watch #7
Roger Montgomery
April 4, 2014
As you may know by now, we do not believe there is a bubble in stocks or property. We do believe one will form before the next correction. Type ‘bubble’ into the search bar or click here to read our recent observations. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market Valuation, Property.
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Bubble vs no bubble?
Roger Montgomery's Team
March 21, 2014
We were interested recently to see Jeremy Grantham add his view to the “bubble or no bubble” debate. In a typically thoughtful contribution, Jeremy has set out a test for what constitutes a bubble and determined objectively that equity valuations currently do not meet that test. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery's Team Posted in Market commentary.
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Another Bearish Warning?
Roger Montgomery
March 12, 2014
As a follow-up from our last post on Seth Klarman’s warning about impending asset price bubble, we found the below graphic that highlights an increasing amount of capital being raised by lower quality companies, rather interesting. (You can view the original post on ZeroHedge, here).
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Klarman warns of impending asset price bubble: FT.com
Roger Montgomery
March 12, 2014
Earlier in the week, an article by Miles Johnson, Hedge Fund Correspondent for the Financial Times, caught our interest. Reporting on Seth Klarman, head of Baupost Group and “one of the world’s most respected investors”, Johnson writes of Klarman’s grave warning of an imminent asset price bubble. The highly regarded value investor (and bestselling author) is quoted as saying: “Any year in which the S&P 500 jumps 32 per cent and the Nasdaq 40 per cent while corporate earnings barely increase should be a cause for concern, not for further exuberance”. Read the article here (if you’re an FT.com subscriber).
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market Valuation.
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2013… what a year!
Roger Montgomery
December 26, 2013
As we draw the curtains on 2013, we thought it would be interesting to look back at the three most popular stories from the year. They are… Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Warning. Warning. Crash Imminent?
Roger Montgomery
December 19, 2013
You have heard it dozens of times. Soothsayers, market commentators and prognosticators sharing tales of impending doom.
And all sorts of charts and variables are trotted out to explain why, how or when the market will crash.
A particular favourite of ours is what we call the ‘Overlay’. In the Overlay, a chart of the 1987, 2000 or 2007/08 stock market crash is displayed and then a chart of the current market is lined up against the original to demonstrate just how closely the two periods are mimicking each other. The insinuation is that the market will soon crash just as it did all those years ago. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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The bubble we have to have…
Roger Montgomery
November 23, 2013
Over the course of the last month or so we have been witnessing a coalescing of words, sentiment shifts and policy pronouncements that suggest a bubble is about to be engineered by central banks and governments. The idea that we are in a bubble is thus potentially extremely premature. I am personally becoming convinced that, notwithstanding a few bumps along the way, we may see the inflating of a massive stock market rally that may run hard until 2016. The US credit cycle appears to be only mid way through its typical 5-8 years and the likely Fed heir Janet Yellen is making all sorts of pronouncements suggesting the adjective ‘doveish’ used to describe her is an understatement. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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Bubble trouble
Roger Montgomery
November 20, 2013
In this article for eInvestHub, Roger addresses the question: is the Australian economy in a bubble? Read Bubble Trouble.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.
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More Cash than Ideas – A Change in the Outlook!
Roger Montgomery
November 15, 2013
Two weeks ago I appeared on ABC The Business with Ticky Fullerton as I do each Tuesday fortnight. The video footage follows below and you will notice that I mention that we could only find four companies in the top 100 that were trading at any discount to intrinsic value. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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