Search Results for: bubble
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Dear Property Speculator…
Roger Montgomery
March 30, 2015
Concentrate. Money has a price. The price of money is the interest rate. Lower the price and demand increases. It’s the same with credit. The price of credit is the interest rate. Credit is money. Lower the price of credit and more people borrow. But there is a problem for central banks who like to use the price of money and credit as a tool for manipulating or fine tuning the economy. That problem is the bluntness of the tool. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Property.
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Bubbles and the corruption of risk
Roger Montgomery
February 26, 2015
In this article, Roger comments on the demographic avalanche of retiring baby boomers, low interest rates and a disproportionately large amount of their wealth in cash. Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.
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Baby boomers ignore China lag and bond bubble at their peril
Roger Montgomery
February 7, 2015
In this column published in The Australian, Roger looks at the Australian share market increase and the resultant chase for yield into risky products. Furthermore, as the period of low interest rates gets longer investors are desperate to shore up their income. Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.
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Oiling your mind
Roger Montgomery
December 15, 2014
No doubt you’re starting to thinking about puddings for Christmas Day, last minute gift buying, present wrapping and packing for the annual holiday. But spare a thought for the plunging price of oil. There’s a couple of things you need to know, beyond giving the petrol station attendant a smile because fuel is only costing $1.20/litre.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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Bubble Watch #18 Tallest Buildings warns of impending stock market crash?
Roger Montgomery
December 7, 2014
There are all sorts of coincidences that can be mistaken for signs that a crash is imminent. We don’t put much store in those, however it is never uninteresting reading about them. One that is gaining a little traction is something known as the Edifice Complex.
In conventional terms, the Edifice Complex is the desire to build lasting edifices or buildings as a legacy to one’s greatness. In today’s context, the Edifice Complex represents the historically coincident construction/completion of these buildings with stock market crashes. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Property, Value.able.
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Coca-Cola shows bubbles barely matter for seasoned investor
Roger Montgomery
November 22, 2014
In this column published in The Australian, Roger takes a look at the current Australian property market; in light of population growth, higher interest rates and a slowing China. Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.
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Are stocks about to crash?
Roger Montgomery
November 21, 2014
About a year ago GMO’s Jeremy Grantham was very bullish. The S&P500 was around 1,800 points and Grantham made a prediction that in the year or two the market would rally 20 per cent to 30 per cent.
With the S&P now at 2052 and up 14 per cent since his previous bullish call, we thought it would be prudent to read his letter entitled Bubble Watch Update included in the latest quarterly report to GMO investors. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Property; be careful! Equities; get ready!
Roger Montgomery
November 17, 2014
It doesn’t seem that long ago, but the Global Financial Crisis-inspired rout in the stock market began in late 2007 and even though it bottomed in March of 2009, the symptoms that triggered the collapse, are even worse today.
But before you go jumping at shadows keep in mind that while interest rates remain low, the status quo is very likely to be maintained. Indeed low or lower rates could trigger an equity bubble before any correction is experienced. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Property, Value.able.
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Darth Veda
Russell Muldoon
November 7, 2014
Veda Group Limited (VED) is one of the more successful IPO’s we have participated in recently. Listing in early December 2013 at $1.25 the stock went on to subsequently double in price hitting a high of $2.55 just a few months later.
Adding to this success was the exceptional 2014 full year results that came in ahead of the prospectus guidance, producing one of the best reports over the August reporting season. Continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Bubble Watch #17 – The Red pill or the Blue pill?
Roger Montgomery
November 5, 2014
Some times you just wake up with a clear view of our current condition. I think my friend Chris Joye, a columnist for the The Australian Financial Review and a director at YBR Funds Management, might be feeling a little like Neo did in the movie The Matrix, when he woke up to see reality for the first time.
In his article today, Why Capitalism Is Not Doing Its Job, Chris makes the observation:
“There is absolutely a role for governments to vouchsafe a minimum level of liquidity when markets temporarily shut tight in crises. I argued this in March 2008 apropos the securitisation market, which the government ended up (very) profitably supporting with $15 billion. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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Bubble Watch #16: Risk Corruption
Roger Montgomery
October 30, 2014
Nearly five years ago – in January 2010 – the five-year bank bill swap rate was 5.915 per cent. Westpac was offering five-year term deposits at 8 per cent for sums from $5,000 to $5 million with interest paid annually. The Commonwealth Bank and the NAB were paying 6.75 per cent for sums up to $500,000, while Bankwest offered 7.1 per cent. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Financial Services, Insightful Insights.
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Bubble Watch: A White Paper
Roger Montgomery's Team
October 24, 2014
You don’t have to be a Nobel Prize-winning economist to notice there’s been a lot of talk on bubbles lately. In this subscriber-only White Paper, Roger Montgomery takes a closer look at just what’s happening with asset prices.
by Roger Montgomery's Team Posted in Whitepapers.
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Bubble Watch #15
Roger Montgomery
October 22, 2014
Businessweek reports: “Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman, who oversees the largest manager of alternative assets as Chief Executive Officer of Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX), said the recent declines in financial markets are an “overreaction.” Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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MUST READ: Shiller on bubbles and busts
Roger Montgomery
October 20, 2014
Nobody is always right. With that said, it’s only natural that we gravitate in our listening to those we have seen demonstrate a notable track record. Humans are notoriously bad at picking turning points, so we like those rare canaries that have got it right more than once. Robert Shiller is one of those guys, and what makes him especially worthy of your attention is that he hasn’t been successful by forecasting frequently. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Bubble watch #13 – get ready
Roger Montgomery
September 18, 2014
In recent months, the number of very successful investors doing ‘it’ themselves has surged.
So here’s a question:
Do you think the number of very successful investors will continue to surge when the market falls? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.
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The Economic Scene, according to the RBA
Ben MacNevin
September 5, 2014
Following the September Board meeting, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has provided a very thoughtful perspective of the Australian economy and the RBA’s view on asset prices. It’s well worth a read. Continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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House prices to crash? Ask your barber!
Roger Montgomery
September 2, 2014
Writing for Finsia’s InFinance daily report, Robin Christie has quoted the Big Four banks’ head economists speaking at the AB+F Breakfast with the Economists event in Sydney late last week. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Financial Services, Insightful Insights.
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Bubble watch #12 – we’re getting closer
Roger Montgomery
August 27, 2014
Journos are calling it a melt-up; economists are calling it a bubble. Here at Montgomery we’ve been writing since November last year that investors could expect rising asset prices (read: stocks and property) thanks to a regime shift at the US Federal Reserve under Janet Yellen. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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Cash is king
Roger Montgomery
August 27, 2014
As you already know, Magellan Financial Group are approached regularly by smaller equity managers seeking an investment. To date, Magellan have only invested in one manager – Montgomery – and Magellan remain the only external investor in our company. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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Get ready for a stock market boom!
Roger Montgomery
August 15, 2014
I have just completed my latest monthly column for Money magazine, and it got me thinking about why I think there might just be an almighty stock market boom sometime between now and 2016. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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