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The character of a President
Roger Montgomery
November 6, 2024
As the world watches the U.S. vote, it turns the page on a new and arguably uncertain chapter. I have just read a startling essay about Donald Trump’s character. One marvels at Americans’ willingness to vote for such a person as President. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Popular.
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What of China’s imploding economy?
Roger Montgomery
September 24, 2024
According to several reports, China’s property price index is tumbling. China’s new home prices in 70 cities fell 5.3 per cent year-over-year in August 2024, accelerating from July’s 4.9 per cent drop. This marks the 14th consecutive month of decline and the sharpest since May 2015, despite Beijing’s efforts to stabilise the property market through lower mortgage rates and reduced homebuying costs. The downturn deepened across most major cities, with Beijing (-3.6 per cent vs -3.3 per cent in July), Guangzhou (-10.1 per cent vs -9.9 per cent), Shenzhen (-8.2 per cent vs -8.0 per cent), Tianjin (-1.4 per cent vs -1.2 per cent), and Chongqing (-5.4 per cent vs -4.9 per cent) all seeing further price contractions.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property.
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Unlocking opportunities in Private Credit: Key insights from the Foresight Analytics report
Roger Montgomery
September 24, 2024
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Video Insights.
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Have we seen the consumption nadir?
Roger Montgomery
September 19, 2024
Back in June 24, the picture for Australian consumers was ominously darkening. While Australia’s major lenders had reported only modest increases in mortgage defaults and house repossessions, data from the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) revealed Australia was on track to record the highest number of collapsed businesses in ten years, with businesses in the building game and in food services bearing the brunt of the impact from consumers ‘zipping up their wallets’. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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Reporting season quick takes
Roger Montgomery
August 30, 2024
Amid a hectic reporting week, we offer the following quick takes, highlighting the results of key, high-quality companies. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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Are consumers eating out less? Just ask McDonald’s
Roger Montgomery
August 2, 2024
The U.S. consumer is experiencing conditions similar to ours. Indeed globally, consumers are now displaying the impact of inflation and the lagged effect of higher interest rates. These are beginning to bite and this is being reflected in consumer purchasing behaviour. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Artificial Intelligence and the increasing demand for electricity
David Buckland
July 5, 2024
In this week’s video insight, I discuss the significant impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on companies, particularly the “Magnificent Seven.” AI is driving up the power needs of data centres, far beyond traditional levels. I explain this with the concept of rack power density and highlight predictions about U.S. data centre electricity use. I also mention Amazon Web Services’ recent energy deals and how these changes might influence Australia’s energy policies, including the debate on nuclear power. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.
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The demographic boom investors must follow
Roger Montgomery
June 11, 2024
The combination of a growing cohort entering salaried employment for the first time, a very high proportion of that salary being disposable, and the first generation to be comfortably and familiarly globally connected through social media can have a stratospheric impact on the revenues of companies that drop a product that becomes a smash hit with Gen Z. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Are we about to see increased property market volatility?
Roger Montgomery
May 30, 2024
Australia is currently witnessing challenging dynamics in the property market, where the costs and complexities associated with owning investment properties often outweigh the potential returns. Are high interest rates, increasing taxes, and rising maintenance expenses making property investment less attractive?
Continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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How understanding demographic shifts can help investors
Roger Montgomery
May 17, 2024
Investors understand the power of demographic information. Back in the early 1990s, when I was presenting to investors at ASX-sponsored conferences, I recall ‘time-lining’ the baby boomers and predicting – reasonably successfully, I might add – what industries the boomers would have a substantial impact on. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Quarterly consumer price index update
Brett Craig
May 2, 2024
The long-awaited quarterly consumer price index (CPI) figure was reported last week. Over the March quarter, CPI rose by 1.0 per cent, which follows the previous 0.6 per cent December quarter increase. Over the 12 months to March 2024, CPI rose by 3.6 per cent. Whilst the annual rate of inflation is trending downwards, the quarterly figure increased by 0.4 per cent and poses ongoing challenges. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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Gen Y winning the spending race
Roger Montgomery
March 22, 2024
The latest e-commerce report from Australia Post simultaneously reinforces what we know about the ineffectiveness of monetary policy and recent Commonwealth Bank household spending insights reports.
The headline data from Australia Post reveals Australians reduced their online spending by 1.2 per cent in calendar year 2023, compared to the year before, to $63.6 billion. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.
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Two big forecasts for 2024 – private credit rising and small caps catching up
Roger Montgomery
January 19, 2024
As we kick off another year of investing, I thought I would offer a couple of predictions. They come thick and fast at this time of year, so rely on them as you might dental floss for security when rock climbing.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Putting today’s market in context
Polen Capital
December 20, 2023
For investors, the last four years have seen some remarkable events, which have had a profound impact on equity markets globally. Volatility has been elevated on both the ups and downs. The global pandemic that began in early 2020 induced a sharp correction as the initial curtailment of day-to-day activity became apparent. This reversed quite rapidly with many listed companies posting outsized gains as they benefitted from changing behaviours. Continue…
by Polen Capital Posted in Global markets, Polen Capital.
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Analysing Australia’s October CPI: Unexpected trends
Brett Craig
December 4, 2023
The latest monthly consumer price index (CPI) read released last week, came in unexpectedly lower than anticipated, at 4.9 per cent in the 12 months to October. This follows the previous read of 5.6 per cent in September. With the 8.4 per cent peak recorded in December, inflation is continuing to follow a downward trend off the back of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) best efforts to raise interest rates in order to achieve a slowdown in inflation. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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Temple & Webster’s share price soars following its AGM update
Roger Montgomery
November 30, 2023
As we monitor the behavior of the Australian consumer, it’s crucial to acknowledge that consumption constitutes approximately 50 per cent of Australia’s GDP, significantly influencing decisions related to interest rates. The robust trading update presented during the annual general meeting (AGM) by Temple & Webster Group (ASX: TPW), an online retailer specialising in furniture and homewares, prompts thoughtful consideration. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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The RBA acknowledges boomers win and mortgagees lose
Roger Montgomery
November 29, 2023
Central banks across the globe find themselves in a challenging predicament, and our own Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces a particularly delicate situation. In Australia, an intricate interplay of demographics and home ownership dynamics creates a paradox where those who bear the brunt of rising interest rates are not the ones fuelling the inflationary fire through their spending habits. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Forget inflation; wineway robbery might be here to stay
Roger Montgomery
November 23, 2023
As a result of the corporatisation of restaurants, there’s a plethora of them. The emergence of the Restaurant Group – Merrivale, Bentley, and The Speakeasy Group are examples which offer a business solution to the cost of independence through bulk buying power (for food and fit-outs) and merged accounting and marketing functions. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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The RBA is in a bind along with mortgagees and renters
Roger Montgomery
November 20, 2023
Just 48 hours after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted rates for the 13th time by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell said at a conference in Washington that “we are not confident” the Fed has tightened enough to bring inflation down to its 2 per cent goal. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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The dawning of a new financial era: The silver lining in rising interest rates
Roger Montgomery
November 3, 2023
There is much debate about whether rates will rise or fall or stay about here for some time – the latter being my personal stance and prediction. Irrespective of our own beliefs, I think we can all agree interest rates aren’t going back to the lows we saw when the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates to zero, and our own Australian banks benefitted from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) term funding facility, which provided three-year funding at 0.1 per cent. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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